Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
On the bright side: plans like those of the west coast states to gradually reopen with an army of testers, tracers, and isolation procedures can--hopefully--help to lower the new Rt. Maybe.
I think we need to pay close attention to the west coast states and watch to see from their experience which restrictions can be eased safely without allowing the virus to spread totally out of control, and which ones need to stay in place if we're going to keep the Rt down to something our nation's hospitals can handle.
Well, it's quite limited in scope and a bit dated, but yes it's a valid study.
A more recent study came up with a number of 3.28. However, as authors say:
“However, as more data is accumulated, estimation error can be expected to decrease, and a clearer picture should form,” write the authors, who conclude, “Based on these considerations, R0 for 2019-nCoV is expected to be around 2–3, which is broadly consistent with the WHO estimate.”
France estimates they dropped their R naught from 3.3 to .5. Germany is currently around .7 to .9
India says there's is around 1.4. It doesn't behave the same in all environments and of course efforts to suppress are now being put in place to some degree or another.
France estimates they dropped their R naught from 3.3 to .5. Germany is currently around .7 to .9
India says there's is around 1.4. It doesn't behave the same in all environments and of course efforts to suppress are now being put in place to some degree or another.
Anthony Fauci gave it 2.2 in this article here in the USA. I wonder what it is now?
France estimates they dropped their R naught from 3.3 to .5. Germany is currently around .7 to .9
India says there's is around 1.4. It doesn't behave the same in all environments and of course efforts to suppress are now being put in place to some degree or another.
Rt 0.5 would be impressive. Looking at their death rate (I wouldn't bother with positive testing since testing rates vary), I'd say it's not outside the realm of possibility. More data needed. It certainly appears to be well below 1.
This is the most important takeaway of this article that was in today's USA Today:
Quote:
A vaccine may be impossible
It’s possible there will be no vaccine. Vaccines for respiratory ailments have a history of setbacks. In 1966, two toddlers died from a vaccine for Respiratory Syncytial Virus, or RSV. It wasn’t until late last year that any vaccine for that respiratory virus was approved.
Vaccine developers also have to contend with antibody-dependent enhancement, where a possible vaccine ends up making it easier not harder for the virus to infect a cell.
Then there’s the history of problems in making a vaccine against coronaviruses, of which SARS-CoV-2 that causes the disease COVID-19 is one.
No one has ever developed a vaccine for the common cold, which is often caused by different strains of the coronavirus. Attempts at a vaccine for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome led to animals getting sick. The SARS virus is closely related to the COVID-19 virus.
The urgency to stop the pandemic has brought together unprecedented resources and expertise to find a solution, yet it remains extremely difficult to develop a vaccine. It’s one reason there is still nothing for HIV or the common cold, said Esther Krofah, executive director of FasterCures, a Washington, D.C.-based think tank focused on accelerating medical research. “It’s not an absolute guarantee, even though we have all these efforts underway,” she said.
Osterholm believes we must presume one won’t be found. That puts the burden on treatments and social distancing until the disease has run its course. He recently estimated 800,000 Americans will die of COVID-19
I hope to God, a vaccine can be found and that COVID doesn't mutate as rapidly as the flu!
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
