Housing Decline (Denver, Colorado Springs, Grand Junction: foreclosed, renting, mortgage broker)

[sberdrow]

Originally Posted by formercalifornian

If you'd been bidding on the house across the street a couple of months ago, you could have gotten almost new Richmond house (sold $255k Nov '05) for $212k. That's 17%! A few months before that a house a couple of doors up ($234k Oct '05) sold for $209k. I'm not exaggerating; I can point you to the tax records. Both houses were REO's in excellent condition and included appliances, believe it or not. Our local elementary school is excellent, and the newest Castle Rock middle school is under construction across the way. I'm sorry to rain on the real estate parade, but I just don't agree with you that 10% is unreasonable. The proof is on my street.

I agree, like I said, Im making money just by sitting here in my appartment. Watching with glee as more and more inventory stacks up. My interest is on the equity I made on my house I sold in Wa is more than my rent, plus no HOAs and Prop tax. I missed the dotcom boom, missed the real estate boom, so to me this is my real estate boom. Ive seen alot of drop in just the past few months. Listed prices are not real either. Thought about Phoenix area too, some of those houses have dropped from 50-80 thousand in just 4 months. Now is seems like I might have my choice between desert and the Rockies. If prices do what Im hoping, maybe I can finally afford to go to one of those Bronco games.

[2bindenver]

What is the market like for your price range in the area that you are looking in?

What is the absorption rate?

What is the list price to sold price ratio?

Can you get the stats for tha last 3 months an post them?

One street does not make a market. If the Richmonds you are referring to are the Seasons variety, they should sell for $200-225k. Maybe the were overpriced and sold to unsuspecting buyers to begin with, and now are selling for fair market value?

[formercalifornian]

Statistics are a measure of past performance, not future performance, and if I understand correctly, absorption rate is predictive (feel free to enlighten me if I'm wrong). Based on Richmond's pull-out of a half-completed Castlewood Ranch neighborhood over the past couple of days, I suspect the absorption rate for my area isn't all that good. And, lest you think it's only Richmond, I don't see Engle, Joyce, Meridian, Centex, or DR Horton doing much business either.

I agree with you that these houses are now selling for fair market value, but I dare say that it's no small consolation to those who can't sell for what they paid only two short years ago, most likely with a really bad loan. Prices appear to be off around 10%, and you as much confirmed it when you wrote that Richmond Seasons should be selling at $200-$225. You asked what the sale price to list ratio is for the neighborhood. I can tell you only what I have observed on my street, but I'm sure that with a few quick taps on your keyboard, you could tell me unequivocally.

I would also add that fair market value is not static; it can go down as well as up. Furthermore, based on what has been happening on Wall Street and beyond over the past couple of days, I suspect the housing market is indeed on the decline. Those bad loans are coming home to roost, and it's not pretty, particularly in newer neighborhoods that have a large number of sub-prime and Alt-A loans. I think home-builders and ancillary businesses are in trouble, and with credit tightening up, there will be fewer qualified buyers in the market as a whole. I think the downward pressure will continue, so I'm staying out of market for the time-being and saving my pennies for when the time is right.

[GreasedLightning]

So should we bid into a Condo's price way under the listed price?

[formercalifornian]

Originally Posted by GreasedLightning

So should we bid into a Condo's price way under the listed price?

I would say that you should find yourself a good buyer's agent and do your research before you make an offer. I'm sure that 2bindenver or any other of the agents who frequent this board would be happy to help you.

[CareFreeAZ]

Originally Posted by sberdrow

I agree, like I said, Im making money just by sitting here in my appartment. Watching with glee as more and more inventory stacks up. My interest is on the equity I made on my house I sold in Wa is more than my rent, plus no HOAs and Prop tax. I missed the dotcom boom, missed the real estate boom, so to me this is my real estate boom. Ive seen alot of drop in just the past few months. Listed prices are not real either. Thought about Phoenix area too, some of those houses have dropped from 50-80 thousand in just 4 months. Now is seems like I might have my choice between desert and the Rockies. If prices do what Im hoping, maybe I can finally afford to go to one of those Bronco games.

I know this thread is focused on Colorado but as an appraiser in the Phoenix market, these price reductions are helping to put the market more in-line. The excessively inflated values of 2005 were in large part contributed by out of state investor frenzy. Sellers are finally realizing that if they are going to sell their property you need to be competitively priced in the market place. That is why homes listing 200 plus days on the market are being reduced multiple times. Have a feeling this will still be the norm well into 2008

[sberdrow]

Originally Posted by CareFreeAZ

I know this thread is focused on Colorado but as an appraiser in the Phoenix market, these price reductions are helping to put the market more in-line. The excessively inflated values of 2005 were in large part contributed by out of state investor frenzy. Sellers are finally realizing that if they are going to sell their property you need to be competitively priced in the market place. That is why homes listing 200 plus days on the market are being reduced multiple times. Have a feeling this will still be the norm well into 2008

I hope your are right....I used to get upset when I owned a house and I would see news about a pending bubble burst. Now I get a smile everytime I hear the new realtors out look. Isn't the Arizona bust the same for the entire nation...I mean Colorado is correcting too isn't It because of over zelous in 2005? just curious.

[GreasedLightning]

I talked to a real estate agent today and he told me that the market took a hit but he's been seeing a positive projected future for the Denver housing market. I noticed that many sellers have yet to come down in price from the market boom.

[tfox]

Originally Posted by sberdrow

I hope your are right....I used to get upset when I owned a house and I would see news about a pending bubble burst. Now I get a smile everytime I hear the new realtors out look. Isn't the Arizona bust the same for the entire nation...I mean Colorado is correcting too isn't It because of over zelous in 2005? just curious.

The "over zealous" 2005 never happened in Colorado the way it did in Arizona. We had very modest appreciation in 2005 and little to no out of state speculation. The Denver area hasn't had any sort of significant housing appreciation metro wide since the 1990s.

That doesn't mean that there won't be some sort of decline here, but Arizona is a different animal. There, I would see a steep decline as quite likely, since I don't think the 2005 prices were "real."

[CAMom]

I agree with 2beindenver when looking at the market stats. and remember that 98.7% of mortgages are not in foreclosure as of today(saw it on cnbc this morning otherwise i wouldn't know something like that). Real estate appreciation is not a straight line upward like any other investment it's zig zag, just sucks if you bought on the zig and not the zag. But 20 years from now, if you own in a nice area with amenitites (golf course, open space, etc,etc,) i bet your home will be worth more. It's worth more now than it was in 1980, if it even existed then. I'm from Ca so we have tons of 1940's homes. in 1970 where i live most cost about 25,000 now between 500,000 to 700,000 at today's adjusted prices not the crazy 06 market.