Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
There is a split among Liberals and Conservatives alike: those who believe the polls, and those that don't. I tend to agree with polls if they are conducted in a rational way and not overhyped (skewed) for one candidate or another.
The Actual Poll released today (via Quinnipac/CBS/NYT… commissioned by Health Care for America Now that heavily supports Obamacare) Here is the
To get the information that is pertinant, you need to scroll all the way to the bottom and click on Demographic Summary for each State to see the Sampling. They are sampling a Democratic turnout to be the same as 2008. I dont see how that becomes the actual turnout in this election, as I would think most rational people would agree that Obama's support has decreased dramatically, with enthusiam for him at rather low %, will be anything close to that.
It would be actually very shocking if Dems produced a +7% to +8% in each of the three states FL, VA, OH. Especially given that:
in 2008 Democratic Turnout was D+7 Nationally (but these three particular states the Turnout was much less favorable D+1 to D+
2010 Democratic Turnout Nationally was D+3 (enthusiam slows, and Democratics lose a lot of Seats)
2012 Most Polling Organizations expect turnout at R+1 at minimum this election cycle (with these three states we are talking about at R+2 or better given their more even split of party representation) Republicans are obviously not happy and are willing to turn out in droves to support their candidate (or more likely, go against the opposing candidate, in droves) which is natural in election cycles.
Every MSM poll it appears is using Democratic Turnout similar to 2008 to predict 2012. (and Independents broke 50/50 in 2008 for the candidates cause neither were incumbent, historically, independents never vote in favor of incumbent on a whole)
Battleground states like Ohio normally follow the National vote. Meaning whoever wins National Popular vote normally wins these states by similar margins.
I just don't see it happening for Obama next Tuesday, I for one will be relieved to have The One out of office, so that we can hopefully cut some of the rediculous government spending, and "leave no one behind" in our military.
While we won't see Polls until election day when the real "poll" is tabulated, I am going out to predict that Romney's Jeep/GM ads in Ohio are going to backfire since the companies have struck back so hard. It is also a really wild claim to make in the final hours of a campaign which to me shows "concern for an immediate turn around" in the Romney camp. I think Ohio is officially out of play for Romney due to this miscalculatoin and may have cost Romney the election.
There is a split among Liberals and Conservatives alike: those who believe the polls, and those that don't. I tend to agree with polls if they are conducted in a rational way and not overhyped (skewed) for one candidate or another.
The Actual Poll released today (via Quinnipac/CBS/NYT… commissioned by Health Care for America Now that heavily supports Obamacare) Here is the link:
To get the information that is pertinant, you need to scroll all the way to the bottom and click on Demographic Summary for each State to see the Sampling. They are sampling a Democratic turnout to be the same as 2008. I dont see how that becomes the actual turnout in this election, as I would think most rational people would agree that Obama's support has decreased dramatically, with enthusiam for him at rather low %, will be anything close to that.
It would be actually very shocking if Dems produced a +7% to +8% in each of the three states FL, VA, OH. Especially given that:
in 2008 Democratic Turnout was D+7 Nationally (but these three particular states the Turnout was much less favorable D+1 to D+4)
2010 Democratic Turnout Nationally was D+3 (enthusiam slows, and Democratics lose a lot of Seats)
2012 Most Polling Organizations expect turnout at R+1 at minimum this election cycle (with these three states we are talking about at R+2 or better given their more even split of party representation) Republicans are obviously not happy and are willing to turn out in droves to support their candidate (or more likely, go against the opposing candidate, in droves) which is natural in election cycles.
1. Every MSM poll it appears is using Democratic Turnout similar to 2008 to predict 2012. (and Independents broke 50/50 in 2008 for the candidates cause neither were incumbent, historically, independents never vote in favor of incumbent on a whole)
2. Battleground states like Ohio normally follow the National vote. Meaning whoever wins National Popular vote normally wins these states by similar margins.
I just don't see it happening for Obama next Tuesday, I for one will be relieved to have The One out of office, so that we can hopefully cut some of the rediculous government spending, and "leave no one behind" in our milatary.
Blah, blah, blah, blah............
Edited to add: Weird. It came up fine in the quote.
This might be the single worst day for Mitt at the polls since it all began.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
