***Presidential Polls*** #2 (dollars, vote, campaign, thought)

[MA2NC2012]

Originally Posted by BajanYankee

Well, FiveThirtyEight has it 63% Obama right now and he has an RCP lead of +2.1. NH is always one of those states that looks iffy for Dems in the run up to Election Day, but then goes blue.

Exactly, NH looks iffy for Dems and cuz of Romney's history with MA and NH it might go Red...
But as you see in the map, Obama needs OH and everything falls in place...

[gtc08]

Originally Posted by BajanYankee

PA is a union state. Definitely going for Obama.

Same with Wisconsin. Silver has Obama's odds there at 79 percent.

He can win without Ohio. As Silver shows here, he could lose Ohio, but win Iowa, Nevada, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida and New Hampshire and get to 273. If he wins all but NH, we could have a 269-269 tie in the EC.

Sept. 25: Romney's Narrow Path Without Ohio - NYTimes.com

i agree with you on PA, even though righties will try and say PA and Mich are in play. neither are battlegrounds.

Wisconsin I think goes Obama in the end, but I can't say its a lock like a Michigan or PA.

The easiest way for Obama to 270 is win Ohio/Wisconsin and either Iowa/Nevada.

[BajanYankee]

New analysis from Nate Silver.

538, RCP, Huffpost, and TPM unanimous that Obama leads in Iowa (1.5+ - 2.5+)

All agree on solid Obama lead in Nevada.

All agree on solid Obama lead in Ohio.

There's the election, folks.

Oct. 21: Uncertainty Clouds Polling, but Obama Remains Electoral College Favorite - NYTimes.com

[summers73]

Originally Posted by BajanYankee

New analysis from Nate Silver.

538, RCP, Huffpost, and TPM unanimous that Obama leads in Iowa (1.5+ - 2.5+)

All agree on solid Obama lead in Nevada.

All agree on solid Obama lead in Ohio.

There's the election, folks.

Oct. 21: Uncertainty Clouds Polling, but Obama Remains Electoral College Favorite - NYTimes.com

Works great if the election is today.

Ohio seems to wade depending on the poll and day.

[BajanYankee]

Originally Posted by summers73

Ohio seems to wade depending on the poll and day.

Yeah, you mean it's consistently between +1 to +4 for Obama.

[summers73]

Originally Posted by BajanYankee

Yeah, you mean it's consistently between +1 to +4 for Obama.

Wasn't it either tied or Romney+ on recent occasions? Yes, I believe I'm correct.

[BajanYankee]

Originally Posted by summers73

Wasn't it either tied or Romney+ on recent occasions? Yes, I believe I'm correct.

Yes, 5 out of 37 polls Romney has been either up (+1) or tied with Obama since August. He has trailed in every OH poll since October 12 with the exception of one (tie).

Talk about seeing the glass 30 percent full.

[summers73]

Originally Posted by BajanYankee

Yes, 5 out of 37 polls Romney has been either up (+1) or tied with Obama since August. He has trailed in every OH poll since October 12 with the exception of one (tie).

Talk about seeing the glass 30 percent full.

Just pointing out how much of a dead heat OH is. It's by no means leaning or solid anyone at this point.

[gtc08]

Originally Posted by summers73

Just pointing out how much of a dead heat OH is. It's by no means leaning or solid anyone at this point.

My five county strategy has Obama winning. Ill give you the fact that Ohio is a toss up.

I will not give you Romney having any other way to win outside of Ohio.

[summers73]

Originally Posted by gtc08

My five county strategy has Obama winning. Ill give you the fact that Ohio is a toss up.

I will not give you Romney having any other way to win outside of Ohio.

lol wut?

I have a seven county strategy that is superior to your five country strategy.