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Oregon hasn't gone Red since 1984, and has gone more blue each election since 2000. Anyone who thinks Romney has a shot in Oregon is fooling themselves. Now if the state had a growing Republican party, then that would be a different story, but Oregon has a growing Democrat control.
The issue with North Carolina, you have a state that goes Red, but has a higher number of registered Democrats, so in theory the state should be going Blue, therefore you have campaigning going on there to court those registered Democrats.
Heck, scroll down this site to watch Oregon become more blue over the years, which is the direction that state is headed. The state hasn't even had a Republican Governor since 1986. And the senator Gordon Smith was actually very moderate and even he lost to the Democrats. Political party strength in Oregon - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Oregon, registered Democrats vote Democrat, and in Oregon that group has been growing while the Republicans have been shrinking.
All I am saying is it is pointless to think Oregon is in play for the Republicans and Mittens knows that which is why he isn't wasting his time in that state, and why should he?
Urbanlife, the graph you posted shows the number of Democrats plummeting. Anyway, it has nothing to do with registration. Democrats had a registration edge in NC even when it was considered a safe Republican state in presidential elections. What you do is compare the way a state voted to how the nation voted. Oregon was D+8.9 in 2008. It was D+6.8 in 2004.
I'm not saying that Oregon is in play this year. I'm simply saying it is not a safe Democratic state and that, in a very Republican year (a huge Republican win nationally....states do not swing in isolation), it would go Republican.
Romney won't win Oregon, unless there's some huge break towards him nationally. If he were to win nationally by more than 7-8, yes he would probably win Oregon (though urbanlife does have a point about the mail-in ballot thing). I simply don't expect him to win nationally by 7-8.
Though urbanlife's idea that states vote in isolation of each other is somewhat funny.
I do not think that, I do think Oregon does vote in isolation because politics is much different to people there and they care less about what other states are doing and more about what their state is doing. Plus with mail-in ballots, most people in Oregon have already made up their mind who they are voting for and a number of them probably have already voted. So any change that could happen in the couple weeks before the election wouldn't have much effect in Oregon.
Romney would have to be leading by 8% across the board right now to even put Oregon in play and even then, I would still call the state for Oregon because the Democrats are growing there while Republicans are dropping.
Well, he would need either Iowa and Nevada or Wisconsin in that case.
Ohio is Romney's biggest problem, but it is far from safe for Obama.
I expect to see Rmoney double down in Virginia and Colorado over the next two weeks. It just makes sense to focus on a big state you have a 50 percent chance of losing as opposed to a big state you stand a 70 percent chance of losing. If he can get Virginia, Colorado, New Hampshire and Nevada in his column (difficult, but not impossible), then he might be able to pull off the upset.
I expect to see Rmoney double down in Virginia and Colorado over the next two weeks. It just makes sense to focus on a big state you have a 50 percent chance of losing as opposed to a big state you stand a 70 percent chance of losing. If he can get Virginia, Colorado, New Hampshire and Nevada in his column (difficult, but not impossible), then he might be able to pull off the upset.
Romney will not get Nevada and he might not get CO either. While mathematically, he might have other options his only path is through Ohio.
I expect to see Rmoney double down in Virginia and Colorado over the next two weeks. It just makes sense to focus on a big state you have a 50 percent chance of losing as opposed to a big state you stand a 70 percent chance of losing. If he can get Virginia, Colorado, New Hampshire and Nevada in his column (difficult, but not impossible), then he might be able to pull off the upset.
It wouldn't be an "upset." They are basically tied right now.
Anyway, Nate Silver is partisan hack. He doesn't even break undecideds the way he says they will, he weights most of the polls more favorable to Obama higher than the polls more favorable to Romney, etc. Romney doesn't have a 70% chance of losing Ohio, but it is a big problem for him.
Romney's certainly better off playing for Virginia right now. It looks like he'll win Florida. It looks like he'll win North Carolina. Virginia and Colorado are the two states that are still highly competitive at this point in the race. Romney's better off conceding Ohio and going all out for Virginia, Colorado and New Hampshire.
While close looks like CO is breaking for Romney, back to drawing board for you Baja.
It wouldn't be an "upset." They are basically tied right now.
Anyway, Nate Silver is partisan hack. He doesn't even break undecideds the way he says they will, he weights most of the polls more favorable to Obama higher than the polls more favorable to Romney, etc. Romney doesn't have a 70% chance of losing Ohio, but it is a big problem for him.
I actually like Nate but he is unabashedly an Obama supporter.
Actually, I think Obama has a huge strategic advantage at this point because he's very competitive in Virginia. Yeah, it's bad if Rmoney loses Ohio (and it looks like he will...just like it looks like Obama will lose FL and NC), but losing Virginia will most certainly be the nail in the coffin. The resources Romney has to use to secure Virginia only weakens his campaign in Ohio, which makes the path to 270 quite a bit easier for Obama.
I do not think that, I do think Oregon does vote in isolation because politics is much different to people there and they care less about what other states are doing and more about what their state is doing. Plus with mail-in ballots, most people in Oregon have already made up their mind who they are voting for and a number of them probably have already voted. So any change that could happen in the couple weeks before the election wouldn't have much effect in Oregon
Yes, and I said you had a point there about the mail-in voting. But no state votes in isolation.
Quote:
Originally Posted by urbanlife78
Romney would have to be leading by 8% across the board right now to even put Oregon in play and even then, I would still call the state for Oregon because the Democrats are growing there while Republicans are dropping.
As far as registration, the Democrats are dropping according to the graph you posted. As far as your point about Romney having to lead by 8% to put Oregon in play, I even said Romney would have to win by 7-8 to win Oregon. Which I said I don't expect.
Urbanlife, the graph you posted shows the number of Democrats plummeting. Anyway, it has nothing to do with registration. Democrats had a registration edge in NC even when it was considered a safe Republican state in presidential elections. What you do is compare the way a state voted to how the nation voted. Oregon was D+8.9 in 2008. It was D+6.8 in 2004.
I'm not saying that Oregon is in play this year. I'm simply saying it is not a safe Democratic state and that, in a very Republican year (a huge Republican win nationally....states do not swing in isolation), it would go Republican.
Go back and reread the graph,
The graph only shows the number of registered voters each year, it isn't falling, it is saying less people registered in 2009 and 2010 than 2008, but each one is a positive number. That yellow line at the bottom is the Republicans which are netting a negative number each year which means they are losing voters.
voters 2006 2012 total gain Democrats 764578 859871 +95293 Republicans 701901 662943 -38958
Those are not promising numbers for any Republican and shows that Republicans are actually falling in Oregon.
North Carolina has shown a higher number of registered Democrats, yet still votes Republican, therefore means there are either fake registered Democrats or Democrats that vote Republican in North Carolina. This is not the case in Oregon where it has a higher number of Democrats and the Democrats have been winning in Oregon.
Oregon is a Democrat state.
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