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I don't like to count chickens, but I'll wager Obama carries OHIO and Romney carries FLORIDA. You can find individual polls that suggest otherwise, but I think they are just edges of the frequency distribution. The means are more meaningful.
Of course, more surpises may well await us in the coming weeks.
That's what I predict too. If Obama wins OH, he will be reelected as long as he also wins the battleground states of PA, MI, and WI. Virginia and Colorado are too close to call right now.
This election cycle is far more interesting this year as opposed to '08. It's a close race but I think it mirrors '80 and I think Romney wins and it may not even be close when the dust settles.
I don't know if the polls reflect anything. One thing is true though, as Rove proved in in the early Bush years and is still doing, it's hard to deny the power of political lying and how easily some fall prey to it.
Also all this focus on Ohio while warranted maybe moot. PA has eerily similar demographics to Ohio without early voting. I think Romney will be competitive there and may win rendering Ohio moot. Which would be good for the country. Why should the rest of the country be held hostage by a dying industrial state?
That headline sounds like it belongs on Fox not CBS. Like he ever really lead by 10. Up 5, if true, at this point in the election is very good news indeed. Obama has a small, but persistent, lead in Ohio and Romney is not making enough dent in it to win.
That headline sounds like it belongs on Fox not CBS. Like he ever really lead by 10. Up 5, if true, at this point in the election is very good news indeed. Obama has a small, but persistent, lead in Ohio and Romney is not making enough dent in it to win.
A five point swing is not making a dent? This can't be taken as a good poll by Chicago. I doubt they ever believed they were up ten in Ohio, yet the 5 point swing maybe real as it is in line with other polls. Basically the race is tied in Ohio maybe a slight Obama lean but it'll come down to turnout.
That headline sounds like it belongs on Fox not CBS. Like he ever really lead by 10. Up 5, if true, at this point in the election is very good news indeed. Obama has a small, but persistent, lead in Ohio and Romney is not making enough dent in it to win.
I looked at RCP first and was elated. Then I looked at this thread and became confused. The press is trying its hardest to make this race seem as competitive as possible. A five point lead 15 days from an election is indeed a very big deal (and good news for Camp Obama).
When these polls undersample or oversample, I am pretty sure they modify the weight accordingly. So the oversampled folks get a lower weights and the undersampled folks get a higher weight. Maybe an undersampled vote gets a 1.1 value and an oversampled vote gets a .9 value.
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The press is trying its hardest to make this race seem as competitive as possible. A five point lead 15 days from an election is indeed a very big deal (and good news for Camp Obama
).
