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Well, according to Real Clear Politics, it's a dead heat.
I think the Gallup tracking is an outlier. With that removed, and the highest of Obama's polls removed for balance, we are just about exactly where we would expect to be. With Obama up 1%.
Given the events of the last month, that seems reasonable. Romney won the first debate decisively, and Obama notably under performed, launching a bounce for Romney. Obama won the second debate, blunting the momentum, but not erasing the bounce. So, Obama lost some ground but is still the favorite, by a smaller margin. That first debate really helped Romney, particularly considering the self-inflicted damage of the 47% comment.
Nate Silver and Intrade seem to be spot on to me. Obama has a slight lead, but not a comfortable one.
Cherry picking polls seems disingenuous to me. The overall picture has been consistent for about a week, and if Gallup is removed, longer than that.
Well, according to Real Clear Politics, it's a dead heat.
I think the Gallup tracking is an outlier. With that removed, and the highest of Obama's polls removed for balance, we are just about exactly where we would expect to be. With Obama up 1%.
Given the events of the last month, that seems reasonable. Romney won the first debate decisively, and Obama notably under performed, launching a bounce for Romney. Obama won the second debate, blunting the momentum, but not erasing the bounce. So, Obama lost some ground but is still the favorite, by a smaller margin. That first debate really helped Romney, particularly considering the self-inflicted damage of the 47% comment.
Nate Silver and Intrade seem to be spot on to me. Obama has a slight lead, but not a comfortable one.
Cherry picking polls seems disingenuous to me. The overall picture has been consistent for about a week, and if Gallup is removed, longer than that.
Gallup very well maybe an outlier but one thing we can conclude Obama received no bounce in fact maybe even lost ground post 2nd debate. Gallup's tracking today is plus 7
Gallup very well maybe an outlier but one thing we can conclude Obama received no bounce in fact maybe even lost ground post 2nd debate. Gallup's tracking today is plus 7
I think something happened in their calculation of the "likely voters" model. Seems haywire.
But you may be right about the general trend. No bounce for Obama. I think at best, Obama killed Romney's momentum. A hard slog for the home stretch. Undecideds often break for the challenger, but Obama's ground game is vastly superior. We'll see.
But you may be right about the general trend. No bounce for Obama. I think at best, Obama killed Romney's momentum. A hard slog for the home stretch. Undecideds often break for the challenger, but Obama's ground game is vastly superior. We'll see.
In case you're not aware, RV models almost always show dems ahead, just like an ADULT model will give dems huge leads, but when it comes down to actually voting...republicans lead.
Looking at some of the most important demographic groups, Romney leads among men (53 percent to 43 percent), Obama is up with women (51 percent to 43 percent) and they are essentially tied among voters in the Midwest.
Not good there. Obama will need a bigger margin with women than that.
13 point difference. Makes you wonder about polling this year for sure.
Quote:
Originally Posted by sanrene
Another poll with a ridiculous party ID;
So...each candidate enjoys equal support within their party...ROMNEY leads with Indies by 6...yet obama has 6 point lead.
Ah yes, over sampling dems by 7.
Someone on twitter said that although the total sample is 1000 people, they only interview 120 per day. Which would generate some wild swings per day.
Folks across the political spectrum have dismissed the poll. The consensus is pretty clear Obama received little to no post 2nd debate bounce yet hear is IBD saying Obama received some massive post-debate bounce.
Not good there. Obama will need a bigger margin with women than that.
In this poll the gender gap actually favors Romney.
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