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Actually Fox News does not oversample Republicans in their polls. And their polls, if anything, lean slightly Democrat when compared to other polls ironically - see your link above for evidence.
Actually Fox News does not oversample Republicans in their polls. And their polls, if anything, lean slightly Democrat when compared to other polls ironically - see your link above for evidence.
There is no such evidence in my link, nor is there any mention of over/under-sampling. So, at this point, I will have to assume this idea of sampling based on party is not based in fact.
There is no such evidence in my link, nor is there any mention of over/under-sampling. So, at this point, I will have to assume this idea of sampling based on party is not based in fact.
I haven't been railing on and on about the sampling by party. You are the one who said Fox News "obviously oversamples Republicans."
As far as Fox News actually leaning a bit more Democratic than most other polls, there is evidence in your link. They have Obama up 3 in Ohio. Compare that to the average of recent Ohio polls. The poll is more favorable to Obama than the average. Another example of Fox News polls leaning more Democratic than most polls would be that a few months ago they put out a national poll showing Obama up 9.
Sanrene keeps spouting that every poll is trending Romney. It's not, and you know it.
Romney got a big bump after the first debate, and since then, he's given some of that back. The polls are not really trending anybody at this point. Obama has a slight lead on average nationally while int he swing states, Romney has leads in VA, FL and NC. Other than that, there's a lot of noise, but the trend is no longer moving in anybody's favor.
Gallup seems to be WAY out of line with the consensus of polls. You guys are certainly great at cherrypicking polls. Romney has yet to lead consistently in any of the major swing states, including OH, IA, NH, CO, and NV. They polls moved towards him a few weeks ago, but they have since stalled in Obama's general favor.
Sanrene keeps spouting that every poll is trending Romney. It's not, and you know it.
You are correct.
Quote:
Originally Posted by db108108
Romney got a big bump after the first debate, and since then, he's given some of that back.
Not really, but his bump hasn't increased either.
Quote:
Originally Posted by db108108
The polls are not really trending anybody at this point. Obama has a slight lead on average nationally while int he swing states, Romney has leads in VA, FL and NC. Other than that, there's a lot of noise, but the trend is no longer moving in anybody's favor.
Obama is up, what, 0.1% in the RCP average nationally?
I agree that the trend is not in either candidate's favor.
Quote:
Originally Posted by db108108
Gallup seems to be WAY out of line with the consensus of polls. You guys are certainly great at cherrypicking polls. Romney has yet to lead consistently in any of the major swing states, including OH, IA, NH, CO, and NV
He is up in the RCP average in both NH and CO. And PPP of all pollsters has Romney up in IA. I do think it's funny that you would call IA, NH, CO, and NV "major swing states" but say that FL and VA are not. Obviously Ohio is certainly a major swing state - and Romney certainly does have an Ohio problem.
Quote:
Originally Posted by db108108
They polls moved towards him a few weeks ago, but they have since stalled in Obama's general favor.
Stalled? Yes, but they are not really moving in Obama's favor.
I haven't been railing on and on about the sampling by party. You are the one who said Fox News "obviously oversamples Republicans."
As far as Fox News actually leaning a bit more Democratic than most other polls, there is evidence in your link. They have Obama up 3 in Ohio. Compare that to the average of recent Ohio polls. The poll is more favorable to Obama than the average. Another example of Fox News polls leaning more Democratic than most polls would be that a few months ago they put out a national poll showing Obama up 9.
Most polls showed Obama leading by a good margin a few months ago, also not as many people were paying attention to the candidates then either. Also there is no mention of oversampling in that article you posted other than the number of random people who were polled, which makes me believe that their numbers might actually be truthful (shocking for FOX) which is still saying Obama has the lead.
There is NO WAY democrats will exceed the enthusiasm of 2008.
In this poll, they over sample dems, seriously under sample Indies...but this is what they need to do to keep obama in the lead.
Democrat enthusiasm?
Republicans turned Democrat enthusiasm into RESOLVE way back when they threw Herman Cain and Perry on a pedestal. Once Santorum entered the mix and Gingrich rounded it out everyone knew the Republicans were on to something special (stock in hip-waders began rising sharply).
Then the GOP really turned up the excitement and picked the prince of boring, master flip-flopper, king etch-a-sketch Romney vs. Romney. This whole exercise in watching the idiot parade show has become a train wreck too comical to ignore.
This is a key point. I have seen complaints on CD that polls oversample Democrats. I guess some folks want 50/50 split in polls for Dems vs Repubs?
There are many more registered Democrats in the USA vs registered Repubs. Polls should poll/weight based on the Dem/Repub/Indies in that state.
In USA, there are 42 million Dems, 30 million Repubs, 24 million Indies.
In Florida, there are 4.6 million Dems, 4.1 million Repubs, 2.8 million Other/No Party.
Another key point - in 2008, there were 10 million more women voters than men. The poll samples should weight for this.
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hmm...
