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The other thing about Ohio - Ohio has historically been slightly more Republican than the nation as a whole. I think *at the most* Ohio could be D+1 this year (when compared to the nation as a whole), but it will not be D+2 or more. In 2008, it was R+2.9.
Something I should mention is that a lot of the Democratic-leaning pollsters have been polling the swing states more than nationally and a lot of the Republican-leaning pollsters have been polling nationally more than in the swing states.
I've mentioned this before, but the only area in Ohio which is growing with any significance is Columbus and its suburbs, which has become more and more liberal by the year. The blue-collar population continues to decline and move toward the Sunbelt in pursuit of jobs or retirement. Therefore you have the tradionally Democrat-voting Cleveland-Akron-Youngstown belt teaming up with the greater Columbus area to create a permanent Democrat block for every presidential election. Add to that the city limits of Cincinnati, Dayton & Toledo and you have a clear majority of the state's population, which will need to be swayed away from any potential Republican candidate. As it is now, southwest Ohio towns & suburbs, along with the general rural areas, are the only diehard Republican areas left in the state.
I've mentioned this before, but the only area in Ohio which is growing with any significance is Columbus and its suburbs, which has become more and more liberal by the year. The blue-collar population continues to decline and move toward the Sunbelt in pursuit of jobs or retirement. Therefore you have the tradionally Democrat-voting Cleveland-Akron-Youngstown belt teaming up with the greater Columbus area to create a permanent Democrat block for every presidential election. Add to that the city limits of Cincinnati, Dayton & Toledo and you have a clear majority of the state's population, which will need to be swayed away from any potential Republican candidate. As it is now, southwest Ohio towns & suburbs, along with the general rural areas, are the only diehard Republican areas left in the state.
Except eastern/Southeastern Ohio is becoming less Democratic. And Cleveland is losing population. Also, more generally, the country (and Ohio) is becoming less unionized and a lot of Democratic voters in Ohio particularly are union members/their spouses and family members.
Here's the thing - this trend you speak of has been going on for longer than four years, right? Well, the state actually trended Republican relative to the nation as a whole between 2004 and 2008. This trend has not been picked up yet in any presidential election and the Republicans certainly did very well in the state in 2010.
I state again - Ohio will not be significantly more Democratic than the nation as a whole when it was slightly more Republican in 2008 and there has been no sign of a trend yet towards the state leaning more Democratic. It will not be R+2.9 again, but it's not going to be the opposite either. The numbers each candidate gets in Ohio will probably be similar to the country as a whole. At most, it might be 1 point more Democratic than the nation. The main reasons Ohio may be slightly more Democratic than it would be otherwise would be the auto bailouts, the anti-union measure in 2011 causing some of the working class voters who might otherwise vote Republican to be skeptical of Republicans, and the state doing better economically than the nation as a whole. There is one huge reason that Ohio might be slightly more Republican than it would be otherwise, though, and that is the coal issue.
I don't like to count chickens, but I'll wager Obama carries OHIO and Romney carries FLORIDA. You can find individual polls that suggest otherwise, but I think they are just edges of the frequency distribution. The means are more meaningful.
Of course, more surpises may well await us in the coming weeks.
Interestingly, the third party vote just might serve as comeuppance for Bush in 2000. Oh, the irony, should that happen. The Ron Paul people are really ticked. And the Gary Johnson people are mad about not being included in the debates.
Interestingly, the third party vote just might serve as comeuppance for Bush in 2000. Oh, the irony, should that happen. The Ron Paul people are really ticked. And the Gary Johnson people are mad about not being included in the debates.
I wouldn't put much faith in the city data poll. City Data is very lopsided in who posts here, favoring liberals. I would say that it being this close bides very well for Romney.
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