Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
here are the final state polls for today (10.22.12) in one spot
Washington Obama +13
Pennsylvania Obama +3
Pennsylvania Obama +5
Iowa Tie
New Hampshire Obama +9
Colorado Romney +4
Ohio Obama +5
Ohio Tie
There is also an Ohio poll where Romney is up 1 (the Pulse Opinion poll I posted earlier). It was done for a Republican group and it may be a Republican pollster, but they had Obama up 7 in the state a few weeks ago.
What is up with all of this "seems" stuff? His methodology does not shoot out a percentage because the point margin says X. He gives Romney a 67% chance of winning Florida even though he only has a a +0.5 lead. So it's obviously not based on the poll discrepancy exclusively.
He says Romney has a 0.7% lead. He also says Romney has a greater lead when the polls are "adjusted" and projects Romney's margin in the state to be higher based on all this, plus "fundamentals" (and that's another area where I have issues with his model).
RCP which doesn't weight polls differently says Romney has a lead of more than 2 in Florida. He is keeping older polls longer than RCP and also weighting the polls he likes more than the polls he doesn't like, though he does make up for it somewhat because he also does a separate "adjusted polling average" which is more favorable to Romney.
Romney is surging in the Reuters/Ipsos tracking poll. They are tied. Prior to today, Obama had been up for awhile.
Romney has "surged" 1 point since the poll was last published on Saturday. You probably should have read your link. It says in part:
However, Obama still holds a substantial advantage in the battleground states that will determine the outcome of the election. Ipsos projects Obama will carry hotly contested states such as Florida, Ohio and Virginia, for a relatively comfortable electoral college victory.
You probably should have read your link. It says in part:
However, Obama still holds a substantial advantage in the battleground states that will determine the outcome of the election. Ipsos projects Obama will carry hotly contested states such as Florida, Ohio and Virginia, for a relatively comfortable electoral college victory.
That's pretty much the story of 2012.
Oh please. No one else really thinks Obama is going to win Florida and he isn't really seen as a favorite in Virginia. Why don't they actually post numbers for those states?
They have consistently been a lot more favorable to Obama than most polls. Anyway, the fact that Romney and Obama are now tied in that poll is great for Romney.
Oh please. No one else really thinks Obama is going to win Florida and he isn't really seen as a favorite in Virginia. Why don't they actually post numbers for those states?
They have consistently been a lot more favorable to Obama than most polls. Anyway, the fact that Romney and Obama are now tied in that poll is great for Romney.
Yes the rest you predictably dismiss as it contradicts your incessant narrative. As for it being "great" for Romney, y our reply beat my edit. I pointed out that the "surge" you trumpet was 1 point over what this poll reported Saturday. That's a real game changer for sure.
Romney has "surged" 1 point since the poll was last published on Saturday. You probably should have read your link. It says in part:
However, Obama still holds a substantial advantage in the battleground states that will determine the outcome of the election. Ipsos projects Obama will carry hotly contested states such as Florida, Ohio and Virginia, for a relatively comfortable electoral college victory.
And do you know anything about Washington? Have you ever been there? Or know anything how that state votes? The only way a Republican would have a shot in Washington is if Spokane has the biggest building boom in history and becomes bigger than the Puget Sound metro cause until the Puget Sound becomes its own state, it too will be voting Democrat.
Look, I am sure that when it comes to The Great State of Washington, you are an expert beyond compare. All I am saying is that, if Obama cuts the rate of his decline in half, he will lose the election in a landslide and some supposedly blue states will change color. Washington was a "for instance" since Intrade only had it as "leaning Obama" when I posted.
Oh please. No one else really thinks Obama is going to win Florida and he isn't really seen as a favorite in Virginia. Why don't they actually post numbers for those states?
I think Obama will win both FL and VA.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
