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Washington state? A toss up? Go on, please explain the rational in this one, I would enjoy to hear it...
I'll do my best to amuse you. My numbers are all based on the RCP average. Here's my thinking:
1. Obama has never gotten to 50% in nationwide polling.
2. Obama's support in nationwide polling has dropped 2.4 points since October 1st, from 49.3 to 46.9%.
3. If he drops another 1.9% from the latest RCP average reading to an Election Day total of 45%, Romney will crush him in the electoral vote--a landslide, a margin of victory of 60-70 votes.
4. If this happens, one or more deep blue states will be changing colors.
I do not believe there can be any undoing of the moment when Toto pulled the curtain back and exposed the wizard. Or when the little boy said, "The emperor has no clothes." In future elections, we may not be using these analogies to describe sudden shifts in momentum: we might be saying, "This is like the first debate in 2012."
It's a free country, and I'm just telling you how it looks to me--since you asked.
Wisconsin is already a tossup state, though Obama does have a slight edge there. Washington will not be a tossup state. Oregon would be before Washington and I don't think it will be, as I mentioned earlier.
I'll do my best to amuse you. My numbers are all based on the RCP average. Here's my thinking:
1. Obama has never gotten to 50% in nationwide polling.
2. Obama's support in nationwide polling has dropped 2.4 points since October 1st, from 49.3 to 46.9%.
3. If he drops another 1.9% from the latest RCP average reading to an Election Day total of 45%, Romney will crush him in the electoral vote--a landslide, a margin of victory of 60-70 votes.
4. If this happens, one or more deep blue states will be changing colors.
I do not believe there can be any undoing of the moment when Toto pulled the curtain back and exposed the wizard. Or when the little boy said, "The emperor has no clothes." In future elections, we may not be using these analogies to describe sudden shifts in momentum: we might be saying, "This is like the first debate in 2012."
It's a free country, and I'm just telling you how it looks to me--since you asked.
And do you know anything about Washington? Have you ever been there? Or know anything how that state votes? The only way a Republican would have a shot in Washington is if Spokane has the biggest building boom in history and becomes bigger than the Puget Sound metro cause until the Puget Sound becomes its own state, it too will be voting Democrat.
And do you know anything about Washington? Have you ever been there? Or know anything how that state votes? The only way a Republican would have a shot in Washington is if Spokane has the biggest building boom in history and becomes bigger than the Puget Sound metro cause until the Puget Sound becomes its own state, it too will be voting Democrat.
Not that I think Washington is or will be in play, but Democratic pollster PPP had Obama up just 5 there in a poll they released last week.
Also it took days of counting the votes to determine the winner of the Senate election in the state in 2010 because it was so close. The 2004 gubernatorial election in the state was very, very close and there is a possibility a Republican could win the gubernatorial election there this year. Obviously, though, gubernatorial and Senate elections are not the same as presidential elections.
It's a pretty safe Democratic state in presidential elections, but it's not the most Democratic state there is by any means. Gore and Kerry both won by mid-single digits.
Washington is pretty liberal for the most part, but it's actually fairly conservative when it comes to taxes and gun rights.
As far as the probabilities, he seems to say that a candidate has a ~70% chance of winning a state if he thinks they are up in the state by ~2. When you look at RCP averages from past elections, there are A LOT of cases where a candidate was up by 2 or even more in a state and the other one. So, I also think he overstates that probability of something happening.
What is up with all of this "seems" stuff? His methodology does not shoot out a percentage because the point margin says X. He gives Romney a 67% chance of winning Florida even though he only has a a +0.5 lead. So it's obviously not based on the poll discrepancy exclusively.
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