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There was no manipulated BLS data, but it was likely a statistical fluke given that the (more reliable) establishment survey showed just 114,000 new jobs and the household survey showed 873,000 more people working. Obama just got very lucky.
You could always call the Bureau of Labor Statistics (which I just did) and ask the question. It took about 3 minutes to get an answer. There was a really bright, young lady on the line who I imagine is very well versed in statistics.
And then started talking about some stuff I was only half way listening to. One thing I did remember is that she said that the variance between the numbers if like that every month. It wasn't just September where you have a discrepancy between the two numbers.
You could always call the Bureau of Labor Statistics (which I just did) and ask the question. It took about 3 minutes to get an answer. There was a really bright, young lady on the line who I imagine is very well versed in statistics.
And then started talking about some stuff I was only half way listening to. One thing I did remember is that she said that the variance between the numbers if like that every month. It wasn't just September where you have a discrepancy between the two numbers.
Yes, I'm aware. I'm very familiar with the reports and how they derive their numbers. See these posts of mine from threads around the time the September report came out, among others:
Quote:
Originally Posted by afoigrokerkok
Look, I'm a Romney supporter. (You know that already, rik, but in case anyone not familiar with me sees my post I wanted to clarify.)
But.....
THERE WAS NO CONSPIRACY - not on behalf of the Obama administration, the Obama campaign, or the BLS workers. None. That being said, I highly suspect the UE rate will be over 8% in the report that comes out in early November. There will be no "revision." These numbers are not revised. It would simply be in the October report.
It was likely a statistical fluke. Obama just got insanely lucky.
The household survey is basically a poll where they ask respondents whether they are employed. They extrapolate the data, take the numbers from the previous month, and do the math to compare. Of course you're going to get numbers that don't match the establishment survey. The margin of error is relatively low, but it still exists.
873,000 jobs were not created last month. For liberals so excited over the household survey, why didn't you talk about the July and August household surveys that indicated a decrease in the number of people employed both months (even while the establishment survey said there was an increase in jobs)?
Quote:
Originally Posted by afoigrokerkok
114,000 jobs is not enough to bring down the unemployment rate. It's not enough to keep up with population growth. That's the number of jobs created last month according to the establishment survey, which is more reliable.
The household survey is very volatile. The UE rate is derived from the household survey - which is basically done by taking a poll and extrapolating the data (and making seasonal adjustments - seasonal adjustments are also made to the establishment survey data). In the July and August reports, there were less people working than before according to the household survey, even though the establishment survey indicated an increase in jobs.
Since libs are so fixated on the household survey now, why don't they stop talking about the "30 consecutive months of private sector job gains" and start talking about how we've just had "one consecutive month of private sector job gains"?
Last edited by afoigrokerkok; 10-22-2012 at 12:19 PM..
Oh well another PA poll is out Obama +3 within the ME. Even the outlier that is the IBD tracking poll shows an improvement for Romney. So far a pretty bad polling day for Obama I wonder how Nate will process this data.
Oh well another PA poll is out Obama +3 within the ME. Even the outlier that is the IBD tracking poll shows an improvement for Romney. So far a pretty bad polling day for Obama I wonder how Nate will process this data.
He will probably spin it so that Obama's chance of winning goes up by 5%.
Oh well another PA poll is out Obama +3 within the ME. Even the outlier that is the IBD tracking poll shows an improvement for Romney. So far a pretty bad polling day for Obama I wonder how Nate will process this data.
How about that Washington Times poll out today? Obama up 3ish. Isn't WT one the the most right wing news outlets around? And Zogby, the pollster who you tell what outcome you want and he works to make it happen? Their words:
Mitt Romney’s first debate bounce has evaporated and President Obama once again has taken a slim lead in The Washington Times/Zogby Poll released Sunday night
if the right wants PA so bad (which i maintain is safe dem), then give me north carolina (which i think is safe repub)
Nobody's giving anything to anybody. The votes will fall where they may. Obama has undergone a slide of historic proportions since October 1; what looks like a horse race or a coin toss today may transform into a much different proposition by Nov 6th or even Halloween. Romney seems to be nailing down former tossups; some states that were leaning Obama have become tossups. Intrade has Obama below 270 electoral votes as of this minute; RCP has peeled 100 electoral votes away from Obama this month. The trend is clear, and if Obama can't change it, he'll be working on his Presidential Library come January.
Nobody's giving anything to anybody. The votes will fall where they may. Obama has undergone a slide of historic proportions since October 1; what looks like a horse race or a coin toss today may transform into a much different proposition by Nov 6th or even Halloween. Romney seems to be nailing down former tossups; some states that were leaning Obama have become tossups. Intrade has Obama below 270 electoral votes as of this minute; RCP has peeled 100 electoral votes away from Obama this month. The trend is clear, and if Obama can't change it, he'll be working on his Presidential Library come January.
i expected a close race, so it is no shock to me that romney is picking up these states. the problem is thinking all of these toss ups will go to romney.
i expected a close race, so it is no shock to me that romney is picking up these states. the problem is thinking all of these toss ups will go to romney.
I think a bigger problem is not understanding that Wisconsin or Washington might be tossups by Nov 6th.
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