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Then you must have not been paying attention during those primaries or too young to remember them. Both candidates played to the far right wingers during the primaries in hopes that people wouldn't remember that in the general election. Also, in case you didn't know, the primaries don't happen in the fall.
Bush brought out 62 million voters in 2004, no Republican has brought more right wing voters than that, which even at 62 million, the GOP would have still lost the elections in 2008 and 2012.
In the PRIMARIES, yes, both of those candidates tried to appeal to conservative voters.
But in the general election, when people are really paying attention, they didn't bother appealing to conservatives for their votes there.
Most of the 62 million that voted for President Bush weren't "far right wing" people, most were ordinary folks not consumed by politics. Many are open minded about issues like abortion and gay marriage, but only heard one side of the issue in the general election campaign. (Not all of the voters for Obama were hard core ultraliberals either).
In the North he portrayed Goldwater literally in KKK robes, while in the South he accurately portrayed Goldwater as a lifelong opponent of segregation. LBJ would probably not be able to get away with that today.
Reagan was portrayed as a hard right conservative, which he was, yet won solidly in 1980, and by a landslide in 84. Every presidential election is a unique event. Whether Cruz has a chance is not a function of what happened in 1964 or 1972, but of what happens between now and Nov 2016. We don't even know with 100% certainty whom the Dem nominee will be, much less what might transpire--war, terrorist attack, economic crash,
The problem many Tea Party types overlook is that the United States of 2015 is not the United States of 1980 ....
In 1980 White people made up almost 90% of the electorate, today they make up just over 70% ... in short, we no longer have the demographics that Reagan had. You cannot win the White House today without getting the votes of significant portions of the Black and/or Hispanic community - which today's GOP cannot achieve due to the extremism from the Tea Party. Mitt Romney won the White vote by the same exact percentage as Ronald Reagan in 1980 ... yet Romney still lost. In short, the demographics have changed too much.
Mitt Romney won white voters by 20 points in today’s presidential election, according to exit polls, which is the same margin that Ronald Reagan won that demographic by in his 1980 landslide over Jimmy Carter. But given that white voters are a smaller percentage of the electorate these days and he’s doing poorly among minority voters, Romney is on the cusp of losing the election.
In 1980, Reagan won white voters 56 percent to 36 percent, with third party candidate John Anderson taking 8 percent of the vote. He ended up beating Carter by 10 points and winning 44 states.
Romney has won white voters by the same 20-point margin, 59 percent to 39 percent. But the big difference is that in 1980, whites were 88 percent of the electorate, whereas in this election, they were just 73 percent.
In the PRIMARIES, yes, both of those candidates tried to appeal to conservative voters.
But in the general election, when people are really paying attention, they didn't bother appealing to conservatives for their votes there.
Most of the 62 million that voted for President Bush weren't "far right wing" people, most were ordinary folks not consumed by politics. Many are open minded about issues like abortion and gay marriage, but only heard one side of the issue in the general election campaign. (Not all of the voters for Obama were hard core ultraliberals either).
That is if you assume people weren't paying attention to what these candidates were doing and saying in the primaries. In this day and age with technology, everyone is able to pay attention and see how these candidates flip flop as they try to play up to the far right, and then try to play up to the moderates in the general election.
Either that or you are saying the far right that elects these moderate candidates only start paying attention to the candidates after they vote for them in the primaries. Then come the general election, decide not to vote at all when they realize the far right winger they thought they were electing was just another moderate.
Either answer explains why we will continue to see the GOP lose thanks to the far right.
Do you think Cruz will win the majority of Hispanic voters in 2016?
Living in Texas for most of my life, I have befriended many Hispanics over the years. In addition, I have about half a dozen friends from different countries who emigrated here legally. ALL of them, every single one, resent illegals demanding rights and benefits they haven't earned. Furthermore, those who have emigrated here legally are angry that Obama et.al. are allowing illegals to move to the front of the line, given my friends worked their tails off to do it the right way. And yes, they have moved to the front of the line since they are already here vs. those who are trying to enter legally.
Cruz appeals to individuals who took the time and money to enter the U.S. legally, and like him, they respect our laws.
The problem many Tea Party types overlook is that the United States of 2015 is not the United States of 1980 ....
In 1980 White people made up almost 90% of the electorate, today they make up just over 70% ... in short, we no longer have the demographics that Reagan had. You cannot win the White House today without getting the votes of significant portions of the Black and/or Hispanic community - which today's GOP cannot achieve due to the extremism from the Tea Party. Mitt Romney won the White vote by the same exact percentage as Ronald Reagan in 1980 ... yet Romney still lost. In short, the demographics have changed too much.
The Republicans can only win in 2016 by nominating Bush. He will pull a decent amount of Hispanic voters and might be able to carry Florida. I'm still not sure that would even be enough to win at this point, but he is probably the best shot.
The Republicans can only win in 2016 by nominating Bush. He will pull a decent amount of Hispanic voters and might be able to carry Florida. I'm still not sure that would even be enough to win at this point, but he is probably the best shot.
Jeb Bush is IMO the only Republican candidate who could potentially pull it off. Sadly a significant portion of my party thinks that it's still 1984 and are seemingly oblivious to the demographic changes that have occurred over the past 30 years. People need to do the math and look at the facts, we simply do not have the Electoral College votes in these heavily Republican leaning states in the Deep South and the rural West - Texas being the notable exception. California alone has almost as many Electoral College votes at the 10 most Republican leaning states combined. We need to win purple states - and we can only do that with someone like Jeb Bush. We need to win a minimum of 40% of the Hispanic vote - and Jeb is the man who can pull that off.
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