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Old 04-10-2016, 06:39 AM
 
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The Clintons' updated upcoming state visits:
Hillary Clinton : Maryland -> Virginia -> New York -> Florida -> New York -> California -> Connecticut
Bill Clinton : New York -> District of Columbia -> Massachusetts -> Connecticut -> Pennsylvania
Chelsea Clinton : District of Columbia -> New York -> New Jersey -> Pennsylvania -> New York -> Connecticut -> Pennsylvania

 
Old 04-10-2016, 10:03 AM
 
Location: Denver CO
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new Fox poll has Hillary up 53 to 37.
 
Old 04-10-2016, 10:57 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by emm74 View Post
new Fox poll has Hillary up 53 to 37.
New polls

New York (FOX News) : Clinton +16
Pennsylvania (FOX News) : Clinton +11
 
Old 04-10-2016, 11:10 AM
 
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If she's has that edge in New York on FOX NEWS, that must means she's going to do well. Keep in mind, she also overperforms the pre-primary polls in closed primary states.
 
Old 04-10-2016, 12:17 PM
 
Location: Denver CO
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I think the polls will tighten in NY - although this past week has been pretty bad for Bernie. But even if they tighten and Hillary doesn't win by 15 or 20 points, it doesn't matter, because Bernie doesn't need to come close, he needs to have that 15 or 20 point victory. So far, no real signs that is happening.
 
Old 04-11-2016, 11:42 AM
 
Location: Carrboro, NC
1,449 posts, read 1,347,249 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by emm74 View Post
I think the polls will tighten in NY - although this past week has been pretty bad for Bernie. But even if they tighten and Hillary doesn't win by 15 or 20 points, it doesn't matter, because Bernie doesn't need to come close, he needs to have that 15 or 20 point victory. So far, no real signs that is happening.
He doesn't need a 15-20 point victory. He just needs to break even in NY to have any plausible remaining pathway to victory. But if he won by even a small percentage, even if he fell short of his target, that would do a lot for him. Winning Clinton's "home state" sends a message, and it's possible it would cause Clinton to collapse in the remaining states. It would suggest weakness in Clinton's candidacy. It would also show that Sanders can win in large states, and can win closed primary states when it's a blue state (previously, the closed primary states have been red states or swing states, so it hasn't meant *that* much that Clinton's won them).
 
Old 04-11-2016, 11:48 AM
 
Location: Denver CO
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vatnos View Post
He doesn't need a 15-20 point victory. He just needs to break even in NY to have any plausible remaining pathway to victory. But if he won by even a small percentage, even if he fell short of his target, that would do a lot for him. Winning Clinton's "home state" sends a message, and it's possible it would cause Clinton to collapse in the remaining states. It would suggest weakness in Clinton's candidacy. It would also show that Sanders can win in large states, and can win closed primary states when it's a blue state (previously, the closed primary states have been red states or swing states, so it hasn't meant *that* much that Clinton's won them).
A message isn't the same as delegates. And so far, he remains way short of what he needs. The pathway becomes increasingly less plausible any time he doesn't make inroads on Hillary's lead.

But in reality, I still think he's going to lose, not "break even."
 
Old 04-11-2016, 12:00 PM
 
Location: Carrboro, NC
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Quote:
Originally Posted by emm74 View Post
A message isn't the same as delegates. And so far, he remains way short of what he needs. The pathway becomes increasingly less plausible any time he doesn't make inroads on Hillary's lead.

But in reality, I still think he's going to lose, not "break even."
Sanders winning by 51% instead of 54% in NY is not that big a deal for his delegate math. It would mean he'd have to win by 58% instead of 57% in Cali, which becomes much more likely in the event that Clinton fails to clear her home state and Bernie wins 9 contests in a row heading into May.

I agree though, I think Clinton will likely win NY by 5-10-ish, bringing her back to a 250+ lead and the primary will be pretty much a formality after that.
 
Old 04-11-2016, 12:06 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vatnos View Post
It would also show that Sanders can win in large states, and can win closed primary states when it's a blue state (previously, the closed primary states have been red states or swing states, so it hasn't meant *that* much that Clinton's won them).
Winning a state that's gonna go blue anyway in the general election regardless of who the democratic nominee is? How's that indicative of a "success" in any way?
 
Old 04-11-2016, 12:11 PM
 
Location: Denver CO
19,053 posts, read 10,079,571 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vatnos View Post
Sanders winning by 51% instead of 54% in NY is not that big a deal for his delegate math. It would mean he'd have to win by 58% instead of 57% in Cali, which becomes much more likely in the event that Clinton fails to clear her home state and Bernie wins 9 contests in a row heading into May.

I agree though, I think Clinton will likely win NY by 5-10-ish, bringing her back to a 250+ lead and the primary will be pretty much a formality after that.
"9 contests in a row heading into May" You seem to have done a little hop, skip and jump right over April 26. Do you think Bernie will also prevail in Delaware, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Maryland and Pennsylvania. And of course, not just winning but winning by large enough margins in all 5 of them such that he only needs to win by a single additional point in CA?
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