Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
The Clintons' updated upcoming state visits:
Hillary Clinton : Maryland -> Virginia -> New York -> Florida -> New York -> California -> Connecticut
Bill Clinton : New York -> District of Columbia -> Massachusetts -> Connecticut -> Pennsylvania
Chelsea Clinton : District of Columbia -> New York -> New Jersey -> Pennsylvania -> New York -> Connecticut -> Pennsylvania
If she's has that edge in New York on FOX NEWS, that must means she's going to do well. Keep in mind, she also overperforms the pre-primary polls in closed primary states.
I think the polls will tighten in NY - although this past week has been pretty bad for Bernie. But even if they tighten and Hillary doesn't win by 15 or 20 points, it doesn't matter, because Bernie doesn't need to come close, he needs to have that 15 or 20 point victory. So far, no real signs that is happening.
I think the polls will tighten in NY - although this past week has been pretty bad for Bernie. But even if they tighten and Hillary doesn't win by 15 or 20 points, it doesn't matter, because Bernie doesn't need to come close, he needs to have that 15 or 20 point victory. So far, no real signs that is happening.
He doesn't need a 15-20 point victory. He just needs to break even in NY to have any plausible remaining pathway to victory. But if he won by even a small percentage, even if he fell short of his target, that would do a lot for him. Winning Clinton's "home state" sends a message, and it's possible it would cause Clinton to collapse in the remaining states. It would suggest weakness in Clinton's candidacy. It would also show that Sanders can win in large states, and can win closed primary states when it's a blue state (previously, the closed primary states have been red states or swing states, so it hasn't meant *that* much that Clinton's won them).
He doesn't need a 15-20 point victory. He just needs to break even in NY to have any plausible remaining pathway to victory. But if he won by even a small percentage, even if he fell short of his target, that would do a lot for him. Winning Clinton's "home state" sends a message, and it's possible it would cause Clinton to collapse in the remaining states. It would suggest weakness in Clinton's candidacy. It would also show that Sanders can win in large states, and can win closed primary states when it's a blue state (previously, the closed primary states have been red states or swing states, so it hasn't meant *that* much that Clinton's won them).
A message isn't the same as delegates. And so far, he remains way short of what he needs. The pathway becomes increasingly less plausible any time he doesn't make inroads on Hillary's lead.
But in reality, I still think he's going to lose, not "break even."
A message isn't the same as delegates. And so far, he remains way short of what he needs. The pathway becomes increasingly less plausible any time he doesn't make inroads on Hillary's lead.
But in reality, I still think he's going to lose, not "break even."
Sanders winning by 51% instead of 54% in NY is not that big a deal for his delegate math. It would mean he'd have to win by 58% instead of 57% in Cali, which becomes much more likely in the event that Clinton fails to clear her home state and Bernie wins 9 contests in a row heading into May.
I agree though, I think Clinton will likely win NY by 5-10-ish, bringing her back to a 250+ lead and the primary will be pretty much a formality after that.
It would also show that Sanders can win in large states, and can win closed primary states when it's a blue state (previously, the closed primary states have been red states or swing states, so it hasn't meant *that* much that Clinton's won them).
Winning a state that's gonna go blue anyway in the general election regardless of who the democratic nominee is? How's that indicative of a "success" in any way?
Sanders winning by 51% instead of 54% in NY is not that big a deal for his delegate math. It would mean he'd have to win by 58% instead of 57% in Cali, which becomes much more likely in the event that Clinton fails to clear her home state and Bernie wins 9 contests in a row heading into May.
I agree though, I think Clinton will likely win NY by 5-10-ish, bringing her back to a 250+ lead and the primary will be pretty much a formality after that.
"9 contests in a row heading into May" You seem to have done a little hop, skip and jump right over April 26. Do you think Bernie will also prevail in Delaware, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Maryland and Pennsylvania. And of course, not just winning but winning by large enough margins in all 5 of them such that he only needs to win by a single additional point in CA?
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
