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Meanwhile, in ALL the online betting markets where people are risking REAL MONEY on the outcome of the presidential election, Hillary is still the strong ODDS-ON FAVORITE to win...
How would Trump win Florida? He'd lose the Hispanic vote (which usually is about half republican there). Sure, many Hispanics there won't care much about immigration policy; but trumps "murderers and rapists" comments would scare many; the democrats have lots of trump quotes to play in campaign ads.
Virginia? He'd lose college educated voters in northern Virginia and need to more than make it with working-class white voters in the rest of the state. Possible, unclear if it's enough to win.
I agree, election results from a time when Whites made up 90% of the Electorate are pretty useless.
Only one demographic block votes for a single party. In 1970 they made up 11.7% of population. Today it's 13%. So this point is irrelevant.
Quote:
Originally Posted by RaymondChandlerLives
The GOP hasn't won in landslide fashion since 1988, and nothing suggests that will change in 2016. Even 2004, when GWB won an impressive 43% share of the Latino vote, was a squeaker.
Democrats haven't won in landslide fashion in more than 50 years. There is no such thing as a "Latino" vote because they don't block vote together.
Sanders isn't really building the Obama coalition; while he does very well with younger voters he also does better with poorer less educated voters going by NH results.
Sanders did worse in Hannover (home of Dartmouth) than the state average, where Obama did very well in
There is no such thing as a "Latino" vote because they don't block vote together.
71% of Latinos voted for Obama. That's about the same share of the Jewish vote Democrats usually get. I would expect Democrats to win more of the Latino vote after all of those comments about rapists, criminals, the Wall, etc.
71% of Latinos voted for Obama. That's about the same share of the Jewish vote Democrats usually get. I would expect Democrats to win more of the Latino vote after all of those comments about rapists, criminals, the Wall, etc.
Trump will need more of the minority vote than Romney had. Romney didn't have very many. My prediction is Trump will get even less.
The thing is, neither can Sanders. It is he who was supposed to be building the Obama coalition; young voters, old voters, etc. That was his plan. Bring more voters into the system; so far, he has simply not done
You cant compare previous elections when there were far more candidates and thus far more ground game in the primaries. We have had one primary so far and Sanders won the largest number of votes in the history of Democrat primaries in NH.
It is Clinton who needs the Obama coalition. Sanders is not about that. Sanders is not only about young voters, but about independents, third party voters, white working class (nominal republican), rural voters, the apathetic and disillusioned. So far he is absolutely crushing Hillary in all categories which is crucial for a Dem general victory.
Only one demographic block votes for a single party. In 1970 they made up 11.7% of population. Today it's 13%. So this point is irrelevant.
Democrats haven't won in landslide fashion in more than 50 years. There is no such thing as a "Latino" vote because they don't block vote together.
Only 27% voted for Romney, and he wasn't running around calling Mexicans rapists and making anchor baby jokes. I could easily see Trump's Latino support drop into the teens.
I don't see any path to victory for Hillary Clinton. She is losing to an old white socialist on Hispanics, getting very small voter turnouts, and her "firewall" southern states are all states she is sure to lose in the general election.
With low Democratic energy, an uninspiring candidate, poor numbers among Hispanics, and the defection of union and black voters to the GOP, how can she possibly get to 270 against an inspiring, uniting GOP candidate with broad support such as Donald J. Trump?
Well, you know all those groups Trump has insulted and angered?
They will mobilize and get people out to vote against him. With 60-70% of the country disliking him, that should not be difficult.
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lol
I see no reason why Clinton wouldn't be able to do the same.