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Anybody who is familiar with my posts knows that I am no fan of Trump (or of Clinton, for that matter). However, I do have some good news for Trump supporters. According to two very respected sites, Trump is now favored to win Iowa (which was a state that Obama won by 5.81% in 2012 and 9.53% in 2008). First, Trump is ahead in the RCP polling averages by 0.8%. And second, fivethirtyeight.com gives Trump a 55.2% chance of winning the state.
While it is still unlikely that Trump will become president, I think that--longer term--these polls show that Iowa is turning into a red state (similar to how Missouri was once a purple state that turned red). Beginning in 2020 (when the GOP nominates a much better candidate), I suspect that Iowa will not be all that competitive.
Anybody who is familiar with my posts knows that I am no fan of Trump (or of Clinton, for that matter). However, I do have some good news for Trump supporters. According to two very respected sites, Trump is now favored to win Iowa (which was a state that Obama won by 5.81% in 2012 and 9.53% in 2008). First, Trump is ahead in the RCP polling averages by 0.8%. And second, fivethirtyeight.com gives Trump a 55.2% chance of winning the state.
While it is still unlikely that Trump will become president, I think that--longer term--these polls show that Iowa is turning into a red state (similar to how Missouri was once a purple state that turned red). Beginning in 2020 (when the GOP nominates a much better candidate), I suspect that Iowa will not be all that competitive.
If that is the case; is Iowa the only state that is turning red (people there feel more comfortable about handing over social security and medicare to Wall Street?)?
In most other swing or formerly red states we see that they turn more progressive where people support expanding social security, healthcare for all and getting big money out of politics.
"The massive survey highlights a critical weakness in Trump’s candidacy — an unprecedented deficit for a Republican among college-educated white voters, especially women. White college graduates have been loyal Republican voters in recent elections, but Trump is behind Clinton with this group across much of the country, including in some solidly red states."
The survey only assigns states with a 4% lead or greater to a candidate, giving Clinton a lead 244 to 168.
With all states of any lead at all assigned, and including the 2 independent candidates, Clinton leads 283-205, with Colorado (9) and Texas (38) shown as dead even and unassigned.
Clinton leads in:
FL by 2
Maine by 3
Michigan by 1
NV by 3
NH by 6
PA by 3
VA by 7
WI by 2
Trump leads in:
AZ by 2
GA by 1
Iowa by 4
Mississippi by 3
NC by 1
OH by 2
Not sure what to make of this. The positives are the massive size of the poll and that every state in included. The negative is that long polling period of August 9-September 1.
Last edited by Bureaucat; 09-06-2016 at 11:04 AM..
Considering how rapidly the trend line has been shifting the last few weeks, I have a hard time giving that poll very much weight. One thing in its favor is that the trend didn't start shifting significantly until the last few days of August, so the poll probably didn't catch much of that, but it's still enough to taint it for me.
Considering how rapidly the trend line has been shifting the last few weeks, I have a hard time giving that poll very much weight. One thing in its favor is that the trend didn't start shifting significantly until the last few days of August, so the poll probably didn't catch much of that, but it's still enough to taint it for me.
Yeah, that polling started on 8/9 and the swing to Trump didn't really begin until a few weeks later. Most of those states that are within 3-4% could have already swung to Trump had the polling started on say 8/22 or so.
Considering how rapidly the trend line has been shifting the last few weeks, I have a hard time giving that poll very much weight. One thing in its favor is that the trend didn't start shifting significantly until the last few days of August, so the poll probably didn't catch much of that, but it's still enough to taint it for me.
I can't say that I disagree with what you said. I do think though that it shows what Trump's record low numbers among college educated whites is doing to his margins, when even places like Mississippi or Texas are close. I don't expect for them to be close in November, but that reluctance of college grads to vote for Trump has to be negatively affecting him now.
I can't say that I disagree with what you said. I do think though that it shows what Trump's record low numbers among college educated whites is doing to his margins, when even places like Mississippi or Texas are close. I don't expect for them to be close in November, but that reluctance of college grads to vote for Trump has to be negatively affecting him now.
And once again raises the question - where are the numbers coming from? Everytime you break down the demographics and work the numbers, it always seems to add up to a sum that is either greater than or less than the total of the demographic groups. I don't understand the polling on this election at all. Nothing makes sense.
Gary Johnson recorded his highest numbers yet in this poll across most states. 25% in New Mexico, 23% in Utah, 19% in Alaska. Double digits in over 40 states.
Gary Johnson recorded his highest numbers yet in this poll across most states. 25% in New Mexico, 23% in Utah, 19% in Alaska. Double digits in over 40 states.
Is Gary Johnson about to overtake everyone in New Mexico?
It would be a little strange to run for president and not take your home state. After all, Carter took Georgia back in "the day". And there have been some well aimed comments about Johnson's ability to attract NM voters.
It's changing.
Does this drive anyone else crazy? The pollsters leave out Johnson and then report trends?!
So today a poll was released - Washington Post - and it showed Johnson at 25%. But ONLY if he was included. Tell the people to pick between the (D) and (R) candidates and they do - Hillary; 51/37.
Is Gary Johnson about to overtake everyone in New Mexico?
It would be a little strange to run for president and not take your home state. After all, Carter took Georgia back in "the day". And there have been some well aimed comments about Johnson's ability to attract NM voters.
It's changing.
Does this drive anyone else crazy? The pollsters leave out Johnson and then report trends?!
So today a poll was released - Washington Post - and it showed Johnson at 25%. But ONLY if he was included. Tell the people to pick between the (D) and (R) candidates and they do - Hillary; 51/37.
Add in Johnson and you get 37/29/25%
37/29/25% what? Clinton/Trump/Johnson?
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