***National Presidential Polls*** Part III (Murray, 9/11, campaign, conservative)

[texan2yankee]

Originally Posted by mlb

I'll just leave this here:


https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...=.9d994ddfc6cc

Obama’s campaign guru, David Plouffe, says don’t fret about polls? He further claims Clinton is winning, and she can finish the job tonight?

Plouffe may be right, but he is far from unbiased. Nate Silver's stats seem to disagree with him, as of today.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Nate Silver ‏@NateSilver538 1h
1 hour ago

Evidence that the race is a dead heat—or at least dead-ish heat-ish—is starting us in the face. Not some complex conclusion from our model.

Nate Silver ‏@NateSilver538 2h
2 hours ago

It's a dead heat. http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/...tion-forecast/

[jjrose]

I think it's neat that the polls are almost even right now. We will be able to better judge the effects of the debate tonight.

[eddiehaskell]

Now-Cast....

Trump over 80% to win the following:

Arizona
Georgia
Iowa

Over 70% to win the following:

North Carolina
Ohio

Over 66% to win the following:

Florida
Nevada

Winning all of those puts him at 266 EVs.

So he needs 4 more and here are some options:

Colorado 47.2%
Michigan 41.7%
New Hampshire 43.3%
Pennsylvania 38.3%

Of course winning a state like PA means he could give up NC and NV and still win.

[YanMarcs]

The researchs was wrong in canada in the UK in australia, ... hope this election cycle put an end to nate silver and his stardom.

[WaldoKitty]

Hillary has having to pull back to very Blue states to defend them from being taken by Trump.

Has she lost her path to 270? (or maybe she never had one)


https://twitter.com/ScottAdamsSays/s...51248411512832

[evilnewbie]

I saw the CNN news article about the tie in PA and CO... if he wins either of those states with OH, NC, and FL, its game over for crooked Hillary...

[Aery11]

To address your thread title: I hope so. However, let's not count all the chickens before they are hatched. Bad karma from doing that I fear.

[LuvSouthOC]

Waldo, the GOP can now smell blood in the water and the writing is on the wall. The people are very angry. Dem supporters are very afraid and they keep telling me they have resigned themselves to Trump willing. I simply nod and say that I hope she wins. Of course, we all have to pretend to be anti-Trump when dealing with colleagues - PC, good manners and all of that. Trump supporters just look at one another and smile. Every thing is hush hush.

[WaldoKitty]

Lot's of personal attacks.

But none have addressed that Trump is beating Hillary.

[Ariadne22]

Originally Posted by YanMarcs

The researchs was wrong in canada in the UK in australia, ... hope this election cycle put an end to nate silver and his stardom.

Why - because he is always RIGHT? If anything, this election cycle will further enhance his reputation.

You can be SURE his models will be 99.9% right on Election Day - yet again - just as they were in 2008 and 2012.

Clearly, you must be a Hillary supporter (as am I) and not too happy with Nate's numbers these days - that doesn't mean the 538 models are wrong. It just means our candidate may not win.