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It's still over 9 months to the election and a whole lot can change in that time. Sure, the senate election map heavily favors the GOP in this round, and the way things look right now Pubs should expand their slim majority.
But nothing is written in stone and tRump's shenanigans continue to cause problems and that's unlikely to improve between now and then.
McCaskill is all but gone; Missouri is now a very red state.
In a pretty good year for Republicans that was 2016, Jason Kander came within a few points of ousting the state's GOP senator Roy Blunt even as Trump won the state in a landslide. Clearly quite a few of Missouri's Trump voters preferred a Democrat for Senate. If McCaskill can get just a few more 2016 Trump voters to support her or at least refrain from the midterms, she'll win another term. She is certainly vulnerable but if far more conservative Alabama could elect a Democratic senator in 2017, Missouri could re-elect theirs in 2018 as well.
It's still over 9 months to the election and a whole lot can change in that time. Sure, the senate election map heavily favors the GOP in this round, and the way things look right now Pubs should expand their slim majority.
But nothing is written in stone and tRump's shenanigans continue to cause problems and that's unlikely to improve between now and then.
wrong.
Senate is actually always easy to forecast. Few close states, so events, at most, reduce or enlarge victory margins, but the victor party is seldom in doubt.
In a pretty good year for Republicans that was 2016, Jason Kander came within a few points of ousting the state's GOP senator Roy Blunt even as Trump won the state in a landslide. Clearly quite a few of Missouri's Trump voters preferred a Democrat for Senate. If McCaskill can get just a few more 2016 Trump voters to support her or at least refrain from the midterms, she'll win another term. She is certainly vulnerable but if far more conservative Alabama could elect a Democratic senator in 2017, Missouri could re-elect theirs in 2018 as well.
All depends on turnout and how many votes the Democrats can scare up in the ghettos of inner city St Louis and Kansas City to balance the rural vote as well as what the appetite is for suburban voters in St Louis County.
Why Bobbie, that's a VERY confident statement. As I recall, 2014 was supposed to be a good senate map for the Dems. Maybe you remember what happened.
:
For a decade now, GOP has done beautifully in Senate gains, as Dems lost almost all middle America.
For a decade now, GOP has done beautifully in Senate gains, as Dems lost almost all middle America.
That is where most Senators are from.
I can see the map as clearly as anyone and it's definitely in the GOP's favor this round. And that's why I said in my post above that they should expand their slim majority.
But it's not a sure thing. A lot can and very well might happen between now and November.
Not close. Arpaio won many times in Az with ease, and has none of the baggage regarding relationships Moore had. This is the same style premature celebration Dems were having over HRC 14 months ago.
Not statewide Bob, Arpaio only won in Maricopa County and even they got sick of him after paying out tens of millions in lawsuits. And between him and chemtrail Kelli I'm guessing that Kelli Ward would win the primary.
For a decade now, GOP has done beautifully in Senate gains, as Dems lost almost all middle America.
That is where most Senators are from.
Very true - and until one year ago, there was a Democrat in the White House. The dynamic of Congressional elections are not going to be exactly the same with a Republican president. Many independent voters (who exist in heartland as well as coastal states) prefer to have a Congress that balances out rather than supports the president regardless of his party, and Democratic voters are fired up as special elections have indicated. The party bases alone are not large enough to determine election outcomes on either side. Trump occupying the presidency is a huge asset to the 2018 class of Democratic senators, since many would have little chance if Clinton had won.
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