New Biden high point with 14 point lead on Trump (interview, Republican, liberals)
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Well you've heard the old saying that there are lies, damn lies, and statistics. I'd also add polls to that.
Five months is a long time in politics and a lifetime in the media. People have short memories. If the pandemic subsides, which is an unknown at this time and economy improves with people going back to work that will help Trump.
The riots and destruction of this country does not help the Democrats who will be seen as the enablers of all of this. Creepy Uncle Joe will never come out and endorse the left's tactics and will waver until he's called out on it.
If there are debates, forget it. Game over. Biden will go down in flames. Most of all, though, in 2016 many or most Trump voters didn't participate in the polls, which proved to be disastrously wrong, so there's always that to consider.
A lot depends on who he chooses as VP. I'm guessing it might be Kamala Harris. I think they could win, and she could wind up as our first female president down the road. She would be the bulldog to his subdued presence.
I think with a better choice as VP than Sarah Palin, McCain may have done much better against Obama. She was just a "heartbeat away from the presidency" and people weren't going for it. She became a cartoon character and people had to question McCain's competence for choosing her.
Biden could be in a similar position of needing a credible and competent VP candidate who could become president if his health fails.
Harris has a lot of baggage in this political climate as she was a former DA & just being involved with law enforcement is a minus right now. Abrahms doesn't have the experience yet, which leaves Warren as the front runner. While Warren would be hated by the right she has extensive experience & a very good public policy background.
There is no way a major party candidate finishes below 45%. I think a lot of voters who do not like Trump will still vote for him.
That said Biden getting above 50% is huge in itself. That leaves a lor fewer undecided voters and also makes it much more difficult for Trump to thread a needle thought the Electoral College map winning close states with an overall deficit.
I think another thing that might come into play is more Dems are becoming likely voters. I read a piece earlier about Trumps outreach to AA voters banking on a specific scenario- attracting more conservative AAs, peeling off more males who want a 'strong leader,' selling the economy, and having younger AA voters continue with their antipathy toward both parties and the process. Supposedly his latest polling has show youth interest and young interest among AA voters increasing significantly.
Independents are the reason Biden is up so much, Biden has gained 9 points in the CNN poll since last month.
I bet most of those folks haven't watched a single speech he made yet. Can't wait.
Hate to break it to you- the man is nearing 80 and could very well die in office or on the campaign trail. I would bet 90% of his supporters do not care- they simply want to be done with Trump. If you look at that poll it corresponds pretty closely to the Trump approval/disapproval numbers. The only area Biden really shows realative strength is among working class Catholics and older voters. Otherwise it is basically the Democratic base and people who do not like Trump.
Hate to break it to you- the man is nearing 80 and could very well die in office or on the campaign trail. I would bet 90% of his supporters do not care- they simply want to be done with Trump. If you look at that poll it corresponds pretty closely to the Trump approval/disapproval numbers. The only area Biden really shows realative strength is among working class Catholics and older voters. Otherwise it is basically the Democratic base and people who do not like Trump.
Anyone want to go find the fat lady & have her start her warmup exercises.
This poll oversampled Blacks & Hispanics by 20%.
This poll has a margin of error of >3% which makes it a LOW CONFIDENCE poll.
Thus, this is a propaganda poll.
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