New Biden high point with 14 point lead on Trump (votes, CNN, polls)
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among a sample of 1,259 respondents, including an oversample of 250 black, nonHispanic respondents. The landline total respondents were 448 and there were 811 cell phone respondents. The margin of sampling error for total respondents is +/- 3.4
Polls with a margin of error of 3%+ are considered low confidence polls.
Polls with a MOE <2% are high confidence.
Margin of errors are grossly understated, as much as by 1/2. The MOE for this poll could easly be +/- 6.8%
or 13.6% as a total range.
A key difference between Biden and Clinton is that Clinton, except for a few days in March 2016, never had any averages above 50% a year or less prior to the election.
I take that back: It's now 4 polls that came out today showing Biden with a double-digit lead.
But I'm sure Trumpies will come up with some reason to explain away each and every single one.
If there were 100 polls showing Biden with a double-digit lead they would make up some reason why every single one was somehow bogus.
The RNC has to be in panic mode right now, having an incumbent down a couple of points before your convention is one thing, it's a whole different story when you have multiple polls showing them down double digits. The scariest part of the polls are 50% of voters, who are voting for a generic candidate vs. Trump, they don't care who is running against Trump, they just want him out.
Anyone want to go find the fat lady & have her start her warmup exercises.
A poll in June means very little for an election in November. Polls right now are just data points to reflect trends. It appears that Trump is trending down, that's all we can say from these polls. If the election was today, Trump would likely lose. However, we have about 150 days to go. That's a long way to go. There could be two more coronavirus waves and 300k deaths. There could be a terrorist attack on American soil that changes our perspective. We could wind up seeing Trump's tax returns. A war could break out.
150 days is an eternity.
While I do follow the polls, I think anyone thinking this is "over" is a bit foolhardy. And it has nothing to do with 2016.
The second link references as poll that was also covered in the first.
More importantly- they show the same point I made earlier. When you are leading but under 50% there is room for your opponent to grow. Those polls had Clinton at 48 and 49%. They were at a time when Trump was down and before the last minute Comey investigation reopening/reclosing. They had Clinton's support correct- they simply weren't capturing that Trump surged to the exact same spot that Republicans have hit in the last three presidential elections, 45-47%. If Biden stays at 50- his percentage from 2016 will be very hard to proportion into a win.
Anyone want to go find the fat lady & have her start her warmup exercises.
Oh, I don't know.
Do Trump supporters believe in polls today?
It varies from day to day and who is up in the polls.
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Just to enlighten you...
