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I viewed polls with suspicion in 2016 for the reason that the landscape was changing. Ever since George Gallup, polls were either of the person in the street (originally), then via telephone, when everyone had land lines.
Even Gallup recognized in 2016 that, with the prevalence of mobile phones, the old 'landline' model would no longer work, and so 'sat out' the 2016 Presidential election (although they did other polling; I believe that the same holds true today).
Each polling company has its own methods, and so people are correct to examine the methodology used in individual polls. I doubt that any of us herein would seriously consider 'internet polls'.
Yet, 2018 did show me that some pollsters had improved their methodology. Obviously, polling is never 'perfect' (See, "Dewey Wins").
Yet, I think it obvious that polling methods have improved greatly. As such, I tend to believe that President Trump and his campaign will take the latest polls, including CNN (which does not conduct the poll, but hires a company to do so), seriously.
As we all know, each political party conducts their own polls. In 2016, Mr. Trump's private polls obviously showed him an opening in three key states. I was one of those bewildered by his frequent visits to Michigan and Pennsylvania, thinking they were 'sure' for Ms. Clinton. I was wrong, the polls Mr. Trump relied on were correct: his visits made a difference.
The Trump campaign has announced that Mr. Trump will, in two weeks, resume rallies. Watch where he goes. I have no doubt that he will go where he feels he is in trouble.
Mr. Trump is appearing in Dallas next week for a private fundraiser, but I do not count that as a campaign stop, as such. I do not think it means (although it could) that Mr. Trump believes that Texas is up for grabs.
Finally, given the uncertainly of the virus, Mr. Trump's team is probably well aware that the window for holding rallies may be short. I would not be surprised if his first rally, for instance, is in Florida, historically a key state with the winner determined by a few thousand votes. Since Florida is 'spiking' (look it up), it makes since for him to go there first. Indeed, after visiting Florida, do not be surprised if the Governor of Florida, citing the spike, issues orders that no other rallies may be had (sorry, Joe Biden!).
The second link references as poll that was also covered in the first.
More importantly- they show the same point I made earlier. When you are leading but under 50% there is room for your opponent to grow. Those polls had Clinton at 48 and 49%. They were at a time when Trump was down and before the last minute Comey investigation reopening/reclosing. They had Clinton's support correct- they simply weren't capturing that Trump surged to the exact same spot that Republicans have hit in the last three presidential elections, 45-47%. If Biden stays at 50- his percentage from 2016 will be very hard to proportion into a win.
No, it’s different date, the first one was in Sep, 2016, Hilary was up 6 points, the second one was in Aug, 2016, Hilary was up 10 points lead.
If elections were held today, Trump would surely lose. Luckily he still has 5 months to make up ground. I'm thinking he should pass another stimulus bill later in the year.
And that would surely pi$$ off the remaining fiscal conservatives, if any are left, in the GOP.
According to Google, 'Novichok' is Russian for noob. It's only polite to use this brand-new, rabidly pro-President Trump poster's native language, as kind of a welcome to CD.
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