New Biden high point with 14 point lead on Trump (voters, thought, conservative)
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If elections were held today, Trump would surely lose. Luckily he still has 5 months to make up ground. I'm thinking he should pass another stimulus bill later in the year.
There is no way a major party candidate finishes below 45%. I think a lot of voters who do not like Trump will still vote for him.
That said Biden getting above 50% is huge in itself. That leaves a lor fewer undecided voters and also makes it much more difficult for Trump to thread a needle thought the Electoral College map winning close states with an overall deficit.
I think another thing that might come into play is more Dems are becoming likely voters. I read a piece earlier about Trumps outreach to AA voters banking on a specific scenario- attracting more conservative AAs, peeling off more males who want a 'strong leader,' selling the economy, and having younger AA voters continue with their antipathy toward both parties and the process. Supposedly his latest polling has show youth interest and young interest among AA voters increasing significantly.
140 million votes in the last presidential election, a random poll of 1200 people is worthless, especially without knowing where the calls were made.
Unless you have your head in the sand and I doubt you do you know the poll isn't off by only God knows how much. Polls are useless as a rule, we all, or at least all of us who pay attention to life know that and any poll 5 months before an election is even less accurate, not to mention it is CNN for heavens sake. Try some other poll taken last week or a combination of polls.
A lot depends on who he chooses as VP. I'm guessing it might be Kamala Harris. I think they could win, and she could wind up as our first female president down the road. She would be the bulldog to his subdued presence.
I think with a better choice as VP than Sarah Palin, McCain may have done much better against Obama. She was just a "heartbeat away from the presidency" and people weren't going for it. She became a cartoon character and people had to question McCain's competence for choosing her.
Biden could be in a similar position of needing a credible and competent VP candidate who could become president if his health fails.
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