New Biden high point with 14 point lead on Trump (health care, patriot, democrat)
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Trump now trails Biden by 53% to 41%, with a sample whose self-reported 2016 vote is 48% Clinton, 47% Trump. Remember Clinton won the national vote by more than 3% over Trump so D's are under represented in this poll giving credence to the cnn poll of Biden up by 14%.
I viewed polls with suspicion in 2016 for the reason that the landscape was changing. Ever since George Gallup, polls were either of the person in the street (originally), then via telephone, when everyone had land lines.
Even Gallup recognized in 2016 that, with the prevalence of mobile phones, the old 'landline' model would no longer work, and so 'sat out' the 2016 Presidential election (although they did other polling; I believe that the same holds true today).
Each polling company has its own methods, and so people are correct to examine the methodology used in individual polls. I doubt that any of us herein would seriously consider 'internet polls'.
Yet, 2018 did show me that some pollsters had improved their methodology. Obviously, polling is never 'perfect' (See, "Dewey Wins").
Yet, I think it obvious that polling methods have improved greatly. As such, I tend to believe that President Trump and his campaign will take the latest polls, including CNN (which does not conduct the poll, but hires a company to do so), seriously.
As we all know, each political party conducts their own polls. In 2016, Mr. Trump's private polls obviously showed him an opening in three key states. I was one of those bewildered by his frequent visits to Michigan and Pennsylvania, thinking they were 'sure' for Ms. Clinton. I was wrong, the polls Mr. Trump relied on were correct: his visits made a difference.
The Trump campaign has announced that Mr. Trump will, in two weeks, resume rallies. Watch where he goes. I have no doubt that he will go where he feels he is in trouble.
Mr. Trump is appearing in Dallas next week for a private fundraiser, but I do not count that as a campaign stop, as such. I do not think it means (although it could) that Mr. Trump believes that Texas is up for grabs.
Finally, given the uncertainly of the virus, Mr. Trump's team is probably well aware that the window for holding rallies may be short. I would not be surprised if his first rally, for instance, is in Florida, historically a key state with the winner determined by a few thousand votes. Since Florida is 'spiking' (look it up), it makes since for him to go there first. Indeed, after visiting Florida, do not be surprised if the Governor of Florida, citing the spike, issues orders that no other rallies may be had (sorry, Joe Biden!).
I don’t think he’ll go where he’s in trouble.
More likely he’ll first go to places where he has support so he can bask in the applause and try to use those crowds to prove people still love him.
Side note about Dallas: I read today that, as per a judge there, the RNC should not be looking to move the convention there. It would be a no-go due to the virus.
If the liberal Fake News polls can't open up at least a 20+ point lead, Trump is going to wipe quid pro quo Joe out in November.
I don't think lightning is going to strike twice. Your team was behind by 20 points in the 4th quarter and manages to win 3 on-side kicks and secure the victory. A big surprise to everyone. However, the next team your team is in that position, you might think they'll pull off another victory but in reality, if your team is behind by that much, it might be wishful thinking.
However, it is only June. I won't make bold claims like some others (Stick a fork in 'em, he's done! And something about the fat lady) this early.
Though not good news for Trump, we all know that national polls, like the popular vote, don't matter. It's all about the Electoral College. It's still anybody's race, coming down to 6 swing states: AZ, WI, MI, PA, NC and of course FL.
Though not good news for Trump, we all know that national polls, like the popular vote, don't matter. It's all about the Electoral College. It's still anybody's race, coming down to 6 swing states: AZ, WI, MI, PA, NC and of course FL.
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