[Prichard]

When was the last time that a first time home buyer thought "wow, this house is cheap", or "I'm getting such a great deal on this house, I'm sure that it will appreciate 10 fold in 20 years?

I would speculate that it was never. When I bought my first house in Winter Park for $82,000, I thought for sure that I was over paying for it, but I really liked it, and everything else was out of my price range. When I bought my second house, I thought that I was paying a little too much for it too, I balked at a house that cost $500,000, which today would be worth close to $1,000,000.

Had I sat on my butt trying to time the market with the purchase of any house that I've owned, speculating that the prices might come down, I would have definitely paid more by waiting.

A relative of mine (who has been a realtor for over 30 years) told me to buy as much house as you could reasonably afford, and pay (what you preceive to be) a premium if you must to be in a "great" area. This was and is still good advice.

Now, there are times when we all can recognize that the market is over inflated, and common sense should tell you that this is not the time to get caught up in the frenzey. That time has come and passed. It was when we had bidding wars over and above the list price of houses, like they had in California years back. It was when Realtors couldn't get any listings, and if they were lucky to get one, it was money in their pocket for nearly no work at all.

We are in the aftermath of the real estate somewhat soft landing. I would agree that undesireable areas may still have a little way to go. Miami is going to have a rough time, because no English speaking people want to move to a place that is dominated by spanish speaking people. (Just look at which cities have the most activity on this forum, that is an interesting gauge) And people that can only speak Spanish are mostly poor and will have to continue to live in Miami. That market is unique. But, the desireable areas have bounced back, and many people refuse to recognize this. We all know that people are migrating out of South Florida to move to Georgia, North Carolina, and Tennessee. But, there is a quieter migration of people out of South Florida to Central Florida - i.e. Tamap and Orlando. I have seen an influx of South Florida Developers try to establish themselves a in Central Florida. They are trying to stay ahead of the demographic trend; they know what is going on in South Florida, and where these people who want "out" desire to move to.

So, some people on this board without any real knowledge of what is really going on can cry about real estate bust on a Florida-wide basis all day long. But, those of you who want to live in areas like Winter Park, Oviedo, Winter Springs, Windermere, Lake Mary, Heathrow, Mt. Dora, Howey-In-The-Hills, Clearmont, etc. and are just sitting on the sidelines waiting for prices to drop further, you will be in for a sad surprise. If you intend on buying something in one of these areas, you better do it now. FWIW, I have absolutely nothing to gain by people buying houses in any of these areas. If I had more money right now, I'd be buying fixer-uppers in these areas.

Oh, and one other thing, contractors are more expensive than they were 5 years ago, but their prices are now reasonable, and they are available to fix up houses. I wouldn't wait for the next housing boom to start buying fixer-uppers, unless you are an experienced contractor.

Remember, December 2006 Prichard said BUY NOW, but only in good areas. Just my 2 cents. Let's revisit this in twelve months.

[Nancy Lynne]

From your perspective...would that also include towns on the Space Coast?
Melbourne Beach, Satellite Beach, Indiatlantic, Indian Harbor?

I'm not crazy about Cocoa Beach...a little wild for me.

Thanks,

Nancy

[Prichard]

I don't see much happening on the Space Coast, or Cocoa. There are some small companies overthere, but the one large employer, the Kennedy Space Center, is not in an expansion phase. If anything, I think as the federal budget tightens, you will see it contract. This area is too far away for a daily commute to Orlando, but if East Orlando continues to grow, then I could see people living in Merit Island and west of I-95 commuting to Orlando. We'll have to wait and see what the new UCF Medical Complex does to East Orlando.

I know very little about Satellite Beach, Indiatlantic, and Indian Harbor - just don't know if they have any industry driving their markets. Melbourne went through a growth spurt in the '90's. It seems to be able to sustain itself a little better than the other towns mentioned, and it isn't a true retirement town, nor is a bedroom community to any larger town. I've allways expected big things to happen in Melbourne, but it still seems to be a bit of a sleeper.

[dlh891]

Originally Posted by Prichard

I don't see much happening on the Space Coast, or Cocoa. There are some small companies overthere, but the one large employer, the Kennedy Space Center, is not in an expansion phase. If anything, I think as the federal budget tightens, you will see it contract. This area is too far away for a daily commute to Orlando, but if East Orlando continues to grow, then I could see people living in Merit Island and west of I-95 commuting to Orlando. We'll have to wait and see what the new UCF Medical Complex does to East Orlando.

I know very little about Satellite Beach, Indiatlantic, and Indian Harbor - just don't know if they have any industry driving their markets. Melbourne went through a growth spurt in the '90's. It seems to be able to sustain itself a little better than the other towns mentioned, and it isn't a true retirement town, nor is a bedroom community to any larger town. I've allways expected big things to happen in Melbourne, but it still seems to be a bit of a sleeper.

I mentioned in another post that the buyer for my Tampa house told me yesterday she thought she was getting a great deal--a 4/2/2 with a pool in a golf course neighborhood across from the river (300K). Then I heard the appraisal price and wished I hadn't taken the first buyer but I had already owned my new house for five months and can't keep paying two mortgages....

I actually agree it's a good time to buy. If prices drop a little bit but the interest rates go up, people will be paying more every month anyway.

[macguy]

Originally Posted by dlh891

I mentioned in another post that the buyer for my Tampa house told me yesterday she thought she was getting a great deal--a 4/2/2 with a pool in a golf course neighborhood across from the river (300K). Then I heard the appraisal price and wished I hadn't taken the first buyer but I had already owned my new house for five months and can't keep paying two mortgages....

I actually agree it's a good time to buy. If prices drop a little bit but the interest rates go up, people will be paying more every month anyway.

You may be the first person to mention interest rates on here in months. People waiting for the perfect everything seem to be assuming they will stay as low as they are today. It's like the price of gas. When it was $3.00 a gallon it was all anybody was talking about. Now that is has gone down a bit, no one ever mentions it like it can never go up again.

[vpcats]

Originally Posted by dlh891

I mentioned in another post that the buyer for my Tampa house told me yesterday she thought she was getting a great deal--a 4/2/2 with a pool in a golf course neighborhood across from the river (300K). Then I heard the appraisal price and wished I hadn't taken the first buyer but I had already owned my new house for five months and can't keep paying two mortgages....

I actually agree it's a good time to buy. If prices drop a little bit but the interest rates go up, people will be paying more every month anyway.

Yeah, that is a good deal! But didn't you have an appraisal done BEFORE you put the house on the market?

[vpcats]

Originally Posted by Prichard

We are in the aftermath of the real estate somewhat soft landing. I would agree that undesireable areas may still have a little way to go. Miami is going to have a rough time, because no English speaking people want to move to a place that is dominated by spanish speaking people. (Just look at which cities have the most activity on this forum, that is an interesting gauge) And people that can only speak Spanish are mostly poor and will have to continue to live in Miami.

I beg to differ with this part of the post. Maybe Miami doesn't need all those English speaking people because there are plenty of spanish speaking people with enough money to keep buying. We have all of Latin America with lots of money at our doorstep. We have every other nationality with money who wants our sunshine.
Also, I personally happen to know quite a few business owners, big businesses, engineering contractors and so forth, who happen to not speak any English at all. But, they have smarts, and they live well, and they travel, and they blah blah blah. They have the brains to "hire" people who do speak English while the spanish only speaker has the huge pockets!

[dlh891]

Originally Posted by vpcats

Yeah, that is a good deal! But didn't you have an appraisal done BEFORE you put the house on the market?

I knew what I COULD get for it but it was a battle between how long I wanted to wait vs. how much I could get. I bought my new house in July so two mortgages hurt....a lot.

This person used my realtor so I saved $9000 right there and I bought it for $149,000 in 2003 so I really didn't want to be too greedy. I'm very happy that the new people appreciate it and feel lucky to make as much as I did.

[bale002]

Originally Posted by Prichard

Let's revisit this in twelve months.

Global, national, state-wide, regional, and local factors all have certain weights, no doubt these weights vary from area to area, and no one can predict with certainty what will happen, the variables are just too many.

Indeed a year out from now will be a good to time evaluate and re-evaluate the outcome of the some of the current debates on this forum right now.

What is good about debate on such a forum is that, with the help of input from others, even antagonistic at times, each one has an opportunity to define and evaluate his position and look at himself in the face.

[vpcats]

Originally Posted by dlh891

I knew what I COULD get for it but it was a battle between how long I wanted to wait vs. how much I could get. I bought my new house in July so two mortgages hurt....a lot.

This person used my realtor so I saved $9000 right there and I bought it for $149,000 in 2003 so I really didn't want to be too greedy. I'm very happy that the new people appreciate it and feel lucky to make as much as I did.

Good for you! All in all, it definitely was a good deal all around.