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View Poll Results: Will Texas ever surpass California in population?
YES 65 32.18%
NO 137 67.82%
Voters: 202. You may not vote on this poll

 
 
Old 01-17-2011, 06:51 PM
 
Location: The Mid-Cities
765 posts, read 496,751 times
Reputation: 387
Quote:
Originally Posted by HtownLove View Post
But you are right about more room, to grow, Texas is still exceedingly empty. I am surprised that the coast is so empty:
Yea that's pretty odd now that you mention it. Probably not Corpus since it's not growing as fast for some reason but I can see another city rising on the coast. The South Padre/Harligen/McAllen and Matamoros area could be Texas response to San Diego/Tijuana.
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Old 01-17-2011, 07:08 PM
 
Location: Up on the moon laughing down on you
18,516 posts, read 15,282,381 times
Reputation: 7251
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dallaz View Post
They need to update the map. That's from 2000.

yeah, they will eventually, after all the census numbers are in
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Old 01-17-2011, 07:10 PM
 
Location: Up on the moon laughing down on you
18,516 posts, read 15,282,381 times
Reputation: 7251
Quote:
Originally Posted by dollaztx View Post
Yea that's pretty odd now that you mention it. Probably not Corpus since it's not growing as fast for some reason but I can see another city rising on the coast. The South Padre/Harligen/McAllen and Matamoros area could be Texas response to San Diego/Tijuana.

yeah, I guess it is just an economic thing that the majority of growth has been near the Texas triangle instead of the Coast.

The Texas coast is littered with ports too, I am not sure if its storms that keep the people so far inland.
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Old 01-18-2011, 08:35 AM
 
Location: Northridge, Los Angeles, CA
2,685 posts, read 3,651,445 times
Reputation: 2247
Alright, since there is a lot of speculation in this thread, someone can calculate this out:

How long will it take for Texas to be the #1 state in population, using today's growth rates as a benchmark (flawed in itself, because population dynamics change all the time)? In order for Texas to be #1 in population, it has to beat California.

All things are equal, so we are going to use the US Census as a benchmark:
GROWTH RATES: Population Estimates
POPULATION ESTIMATES: Population Estimates

2009 Texas Population: 24,782,304
2009 Texas Growth Rate: 2.0%

2009 California Population: 36,961,664
2009 California Growth Rate: 1.0%

Any takers on who wants to calculate this out? I'm going to use an imperfect method to figure this out (rounding to the nearest 100,000) since I forgot the equation to graph these things out.

2009 difference in population: 12.2 million
2020 difference in population: (TX = 30.74 mil) (CA = 42.03 mil) = 11.39 million
2030 difference in population: 9.8 million difference
2040 difference in population: 6.6 million difference
2050 difference in population: .2 million difference

This is how exponents work. If all things remain equal and current growth rates hold, Texas will beat California in population AFTER 2050 using math. (800k less in first 10 years, 1.6 million less difference in 2nd ten, 3.2 million less in 3rd ten years, 6.4 million less difference in the 4th ten years). Think about it, both states are growing, but Texas is growing at a rate twice as fast as California. Using exponents (8 + 2 to the 4th power [since 4 decades are being analyzed) = 64) All Texas needs California to do is either slow down growing OR actually lose all sources of growth (including international migration), so Texas can catch up sooner by a factor of 10-15 years.

Don't get ahead of yourselves. The math is there, but population dynamics change all the time.

At current growth rates, it will take until 2052/2053 for Texas to surpass California in population. However, a LOT can happen before then to make this linear projection untrue.
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Old 01-20-2011, 01:47 PM
 
Location: A Land Not So Far Away
3,451 posts, read 1,335,194 times
Reputation: 4824
If it does happen, it probably won't be in my lifetime. Demographic shifts and people moving take a lot of time, and even though Cali is going through a lot of fiscal and economic problems right now, movement is not going to be drastic, but gradual. Texas does have the best economy going today, but that doesn't necessarily mean all Californians are going to move to it.
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Old 01-21-2011, 01:38 PM
 
Location: California
3,634 posts, read 2,825,013 times
Reputation: 2609
Default ~*~

I grew up in Texas and left as fast as I could. Texas doesn't even come close to California in scenery, culture, weather, or cuisine. If you want something nice you have to pay more. California will always be more popular and populous than Texas.
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Old 01-21-2011, 02:03 PM
 
Location: Texas
1,339 posts, read 1,387,212 times
Reputation: 2346
Texas might eventually pass California as the most populous state in about 45 years if current trends continue. That said I hope that it happens.
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Old 01-21-2011, 05:55 PM
 
1,817 posts, read 992,874 times
Reputation: 722
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kerby W-R View Post
I grew up in Texas and left as fast as I could. Texas doesn't even come close to California in scenery, culture, weather, or cuisine. If you want something nice you have to pay more. California will always be more popular and populous than Texas.
Nice Flag; it is unique too. I think it is the best in nation. I notice people are flying it much more often these days. :
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Old 01-21-2011, 08:26 PM
 
1,895 posts, read 1,590,663 times
Reputation: 967
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chimérique View Post
Nice Flag; it is unique too. I think it is the best in nation. I notice people are flying it much more often these days. :
Totally off topic but I love Marylands - I got the shorts too haha:

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Old 01-22-2011, 09:12 AM
 
5,031 posts, read 7,652,854 times
Reputation: 2301
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kerby W-R View Post
I grew up in Texas and left as fast as I could. Texas doesn't even come close to California in scenery, culture, weather, or cuisine. If you want something nice you have to pay more. California will always be more popular and populous than Texas.
I kick myself every day for leaving CA many years ago just to be near family. Dumb!! Now I can't afford to go back after living in Texas for way too long. Grrrr!! I doubt Texas will ever be more populated than CA even though it's so BIG ... big whoop! Who would want to live in the ugliest and most desolate parts? There's plenty of room in Texas if one can stand unsightly topography. Since I can't return to my state, I'm searching and searching for a place where I can live out my last years on Earth. If I don't get away from the summers here with the heat and humidity, I may have to slit my wrists. Well, it's not summer. It's part of Spring and Autumn too. They can have their tornadoes and stupid thunderstorms. I hate this place and the southern mentality.
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