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I keep seeing people both on the conservative side of the spectrum and the middle complain that Universal Basic Income (UBI) would not work out. The fact is I see it works out far better than the unemployment stimulus. Unemployment has a large backlog in many states especially for those that submitted at the begining of the shutdowns. Then you have the various donut holes of unemployment. Also unemployment has three more months of federal funding and some states are running dry.
What is your reason why you do or do not like UBI? If not, how do you fix unemployment?
Its not a problem if you like socialism.
You don't try to "fix" unemployment unless you think you're god.
Lotta people have that disease.
If the 2nd wave of COVID19 death spreads across the world, there will need to be some form of prolonged assistance before widespread looting begins. We are fortunate that we were at the longest economic boom since the last recession. Most people still have credit cards to use to get by and interest rates are low enough for people to hang on. But after 6 months most unemployed folks will be close to exhausting their credit lines and if the Gov doesn't give more assistance within 6 month there will be widespread crime and looting. Property crime is already up in NYC because many criminals have been released early and they have no job or money so they have to turn to crime. Jail was their primary residence.
Even if states or cities open for business doesn't mean people will return in droves.
I think we could be closer. I know a good number of small businesses have closed, largely due to lack of Payment Protection Plan loans. The PPP system has been a cluster bomb that had a worst rollout than ObamaCare.
If the 2nd wave of COVID19 death spreads across the world, there will need to be some form of prolonged assistance before widespread looting begins. We are fortunate that we were at the longest economic boom since the last recession. Most people still have credit cards to use to get by and interest rates are low enough for people to hang on. But after 6 months most unemployed folks will be close to exhausting their credit lines and if the Gov doesn't give more assistance within 6 month there will be widespread crime and looting. Property crime is already up in NYC because many criminals have been released early and they have no job or money so they have to turn to crime. Jail was their primary residence.
Even if states or cities open for business doesn't mean people will return in droves.
This is pretty much my take on it. A year of this and we’ll be having riots in the ghettos like back in the 1960s. People behave very differently when they’re hungry with no food security. If we have a sustained 50% unemployment rate among poor and working class urban people, it’s going to get ugly once that $600/week unemployment check Federal bonus stops.
So far everyone is missing the point about UBI's original purpose. Trading your time and labor for money is a very old idea and it's worked well for centuries. Here's the problem: as automation and robotics become increasingly used, the world will produce all of the goods we need while not needing to hire very many people. In the future you could see 30% or even 50% unemployment as manual labor becomes obsolete. If large numbers of people don't have jobs, where will they get the money to buy the goods that the robots produce?
You do realize that those robotic/automated machines need to be created and programmed, right? In a future automated world, the needs will change and, as in all times throughout history, society will rise to meet those demands. Why do you think schools are focusing so much more on STEM?
There are only about 40 million Americans living below the poverty level. A UBI would let us eliminate welfare, SNAP, subsidized housing, WIC, and lay off all the bureaucrats who make a living administering our current mess. It would be way cheaper than what we've got. UBI would not pay everyone, just the people below the poverty line.
Huh?
That's just a horse of a different color. A UBI would be funded in the same exact way that welfare, SNAP, subsidized housing, and WIC are funded (i.e., taxes). Additionally, bureaucrats will be needed to administer UBI. So....what exactly would be different?
You do realize that those robotic/automated machines need to be created and programmed, right? In a future automated world, the needs will change and, as in all times throughout history, society will rise to meet those demands. Why do you think schools are focusing so much more on STEM?
You must be under the false assumption that we're ten years away from this or something. We're not.
And as we become more automated, there have been and will be fewer jobs in food service and retail, the latter of which has been a declining industry in the last several years, with this latest crisis probably sinking it.
Third, there is no relevant scenario where a person who wants to work is economically obsolete in America in 2020. There is ALWAYS a job, if you want it and are diligent in looking for it. Plus, there is always the option to hire yourself by starting a business. So the automation theory of widespread economic obsolescence of human beings is a fallacy. Every new advance has created displacement, and there have always been new and better jobs. The key is for a person to NEVER assume that he will have a stable and reliable job. That has never existed. A job is a temporary agreement to provide time and talent in exchange for money. You must always be improving yourself to take advantage of new opportunities. Stagnation is not an option, and stagnation is the active choice to become obsolete. It’s not unlucky, it’s not unfortunate, it’s not an accident. It is expected, normal, and a certainty. Improve or die.
Exactly right. You don't see anyone around today whose resume says, "master cotton gin operator." That person, if he existed in 2020, would be poor and starving.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Marc Paolella
Much of the UBI arguments are based in irrational emotions and psychopathology. Not economics. Because if you just look at the facts and the economics, you see that no system has ever produced magnificence that even comes close to that produced by capitalism.
It's very inconvenient for those who support UBI to discuss it without emotions and blaming those against it for wanting poor people to die.
You do realize that those robotic/automated machines need to be created and programmed, right? In a future automated world, the needs will change and, as in all times throughout history, society will rise to meet those demands. Why do you think schools are focusing so much more on STEM?
We are closer than we realize. Look at most fast food restaurants and retail stores. Many have gone to kiosk and especially with fast food, mobile checkout. Kiosks have about one worker for roughly four to six kiosks depending on layout. This replaced write a few checkout lanes especially in Walmart and Target. I barely see more than maybe four other lines continually open.
Now I do like kiosk. Unless I'm buying booze or a rated R movie, it works like a charm and I can be in and out relatively fast. Fast food I can ask for no lettuce and my batting average of a correct order is nearly 100%. Having an order taken, I'm pretty much better off getting items that cannot be messed up...
Edit: occasionally you hear about stock robots and this I feel will hurt employees. Unless you talk shopping help, I think stocking robots will be used a lot to move items. We see this with drone couriers for medicine or blood tests in this current situation. I highly doubt we'll let the genie back in the bottle.
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