Please Help Me Guess How Many Illegal Aliens Are In My State

[IBMMuseum]

Originally Posted by malamute

No -- I'm being pretty correct. For one thing, most illegals are actually males. They have no birth rate.

That means the women illegals who are quite a bit fewer in total numbers are having very high birth rates.

Nope:



For groups below age 44, there is only a difference of a million between males and females. You're still attempting to recover from where the data does not support your statements. Pew and others classify a birth as being from an illegal alien even if the other parent is a U.S. citizen or Legal Permanent Resident.

Originally Posted by malamute

Another interesting article:

While it is commonly believed that the undocumented are not represented in household Census data,
estimates using the residual method show that the number of immigrants enumerated in the Census is too large for them all to be legal (Hanson 2006).6 In addition, recent estimates using Census data suggest that 56 percent of the Mexican immigrant population is undocumented (Passel 2005). As the costs of legal migration have also risen (longer wait times for permanent legal residence visas), more than half of the new immigrants from Mexico are those adjusting from illegal status to permanent legal residence status (Hanson 2006). Therefore, even the legal immigrants represented in the Census may have entered the U.S. unlawfully...

Making a link between the cost of legal migration to longer wait times for immigrant visas is absolutely false (it actually is inverse: Higher petition fees provide USCIS more resources, and cuts down on the number processing). Immigrant Visas wait times have dramatically decreased in recent years (despite costs going up), as evidenced that the K-3/K-4 visa types are often not needed anymore (residency is approved quickly, so the spouse/stepchildren of a U.S. citizen are able to enter on an IV). Being able to adjust status implies a relationship to a U.S. citizen, but I need a source to believe "more than half" of Mexican legal immigrants are adjusting status from being an illegal alien (the source even counters your claim above to say that females are 43% of the immigrants from Mexico).

New Mexico is, of course, going to have a higher ratio of illegal aliens from Mexico (which is ultimately getting back on topic)...

The claim is attributed to Gordon Hanson in 2006, ”Illegal migration from Mexico to the United States”, published in the Journal of Economic Literature. Luckily it is available online (Illegal Migration from Mexico to the United States, or http://www.nber.org/papers/w12141.pdf directly). On page 7 there is this:

Each year, there appears to be a large flow of individuals from the pool of illegal migrants to the pool of permanent legal immigrants. Many immigrants who obtain visas for legal permanent residence (green cards) are at the time they obtain their visas residing in the United States illegally.

He is saying that the illegal aliens from Mexico are adjusting status are in the United States, meaning that they "entered legally" (an "overstay", allowed to process within the United States) and have an ability to adjust status (usually meaning a spousal relationship to a U.S. citizen). The overall terms of uncertainty in this area of the paper, and how he represents it, leads me to believe it is incorrect data. Saying that "more than half" of Mexican legal immigrants are adjusting status (within the United States to boot) is an incredible claim when 800 to 1000 of immigrant-related visas were being handled at the U.S. Consulate in Juarez every weekday that wasn't a U.S. or Mexican holiday during the same timeframe.

[migee]

It's impossible to even guess because it is so out of control.

It's not just the latinos, it's the people from Asia, Miidle East, Russia, and many other countries.

Just looking at the Latinos, and considering what is supposed to be the legal number here - take into consideration that you see them everywhere...almost every little town in the U.S.A..

The left is pushing for an amnesty (let's face it) without taking a count. Because the number will probably be more like 20 Million rather than 11 million.

And you don't need a census to see that...open your eyes.

(And I admit that on this site I've said the same thing over and over...simply because it is the best answer to give).

[malamute]

Yes it's very out of control. The amnesty being planned is so enormous, an unheard number of foreigners breaking the laws that are to be very nicely rewarded for doing so, that the government has to lie and claim it's much lower than it is.

In the 1986 big amnesty, there were an estimated 300,000 illegals living here but the fraud was so high and the estimates so off that over 3,000,000 were handed their legal status. Over 10 times were handed that amnesty than the estimates claimed were here.