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Illinois needs to get out of the pension business. They cannot guarantee returns and are too stupid and untrustworthy to manage people's retirement funds.
In actuality, Rauner lost because he was an ineffective governor who got nothing done.
I think it was due to three basic things. This is definitely one of them. Though he faced a tough fight over the last four years, when you're Governor, people expect you to get things done. And when you don't, they will oust you, regardless of whether it's 100% your fault.
I also think Rauner angered core conservatives by supporting Illinois as a sanctuary state and transgender bathroom use. He also refused to jump in on Trump's appeal to these individuals. While this might be hard for those of us who are socially liberal to understand, those things were a really big deal to deep conservatives and nearly allowed Jeanne Ives to bump him off in the primary. I'd bet a good percentage, if not the majority, of those who voted Ives stayed home in the general. I think Rauner's attempt to become a centrist really blew up in his face.
Then of course the party which does not hold the White House traditionally does well in mid-term elections. That was the case during Obama's first term and it was also the case during Trump's first term. So you had more motivated Democrat voters coming to the polls this time than Rauner faced last election.
I think it was due to three basic things. This is definitely one of them. Though he faced a tough fight over the last four years, when you're Governor, people expect you to get things done. And when you don't, they will oust you, regardless of whether it's 100% your fault.
I also think Rauner angered core conservatives by supporting Illinois as a sanctuary state and transgender bathroom use. He also refused to jump in on Trump's appeal to these individuals. While this might be hard for those of us who are socially liberal to understand, those things were a really big deal to deep conservatives and nearly allowed Jeanne Ives to bump him off in the primary. I'd bet a good percentage, if not the majority, of those who voted Ives stayed home in the general. I think Rauner's attempt to become a centrist really blew up in his face.
Then of course the party which does not hold the White House traditionally does well in mid-term elections. That was the case during Obama's first term and it was also the case during Trump's first term. So you had more motivated Democrat voters coming to the polls this time than Rauner faced last election.
Combine these things = slaughter.
What Bru said, plus:
The only reason Rauner won in 2014, was that the D base was ticked at Quinn for approving the pension reduction bill (that was later overturned by the IL Supreme Court). They either "sat out" that election, or voted for Rauner out of spite - Rauner had not disclosed his anti-union sentiments during the election, most all state employees who voted for him regretted doing so when his true agenda was revealed.
But the bottom line is, "Why was JB elected?" is best answered by an old joke:
Q) Did you ever notice why, as geese fly in a "V" formation, that one side of the "V" is always longer than the other? Do you know why that is?
A) Because there are more birds on that side.
And so it was with this election. Rauner was unpopular among his own base for several reasons stated above. He had few if any "wins" during his term due to being stymied by the Legislature for his entire term. The public service unions were highly energized from Rauner's attacks on them, and my guess is that they turned out in record numbers - plus, there is a multiplier effect, partly due to family and friends, but mostly because of their willingness to pull off a great ground game, going door-to-door and getting out the D vote; this is what makes the "Machine" such a formidable force. Even DuPage County, long a bastion of Republicans in Illinois, voted blue in this election. Because the majority of the state's population is located north of I-74, and to be honest, I-80, Cook County's influence in statewide elections is almost unstoppable at this point.
So, now the D's have a veto-proof "trifecta" at this point, and can impose their will on the state. I expect them to demand structured roll calls with a representative amount of R's voting in favor, in order to pass any new legislation, that is their way of "avoiding wearing the coat" for laws that harm the electorate, a hallmark of Madigan's tenure. Whether the "limp" remaining R's follow along with that, or just choose to sit out votes, making JB "own" everything that happens from this point forward, remains to be seen. Of course, JB will be blaming Rauner four years from now, when the exodus is up to 75,000 or so per year. In reality, the majority of the $16B debt Rauner "accumulated" is still in the pockets of IL taxpayers, the "State" may owe it, but only because taxpayers were allowed to keep more of their own money for the three years or so that the 5% tax reverted back to 3.75%. That money is still in the pockets of the taxpayers, the only "new debt" Rauner created was the interest on late payments (which was not insignificant, I think it was like $1B). But it takes two to impasse; note how no one remembers that the D's were just a culpable as Rauner for the lack of budgets for what, two full years? Three?
IL is a wealthy state, higher taxes will "work" for the next five or ten years, and the state's condition may actually improve during that time - unless the stock market correction that started in October has really long legs and we see another 2008 - if that happens, all bets are off, the state may be hurt so badly that it seeks Federal intervention, or begins to allow its most debt-ridden municipalities (hello, Chicago) to declare bankruptcy. Refer to the Chinese curse "May you live in interesting times" if this happens.
Finally, in MSChemist's defense, it's hard to pick up and leave while you're mid-career. I've been unwinding my own connections to the state for the last six months, but still have my own house to fix up and sell, and have an Aunt in a nursing home here I have to consider. Maybe she'll move as well, it's up to her, I guess. But if all goes as planned, I'll be gone by late Spring. No worries, I don't care if the door hits me in the butt on the way out, I'm so looking forward to seeing the "Welcome to Illinois" sign in my rear-view mirror for the last time, I wouldn't care if the door hit me in the back of the head. Shame, because I really like my Dr.'s, Dentist, Veterinarian, some long-time friends, etc.; I was born and raised here. But I won't put up with this nonsense any longer. You own it, JB, whatcha gonna do with it?
So I figured out why the morons elected this loser. He posted a tweet the other day, something about Illinois, blah, blah, blah....and virtually ALL the replies were about legalizing pot. So all the stoners voted this guy in. Seems fitting. They aren't paying for anything anyway.
One word: Trump. City, suburbanites and far exosuburbanites are done with him. Down state and white trash might love the Manhattan Madman, but the rest of the state sees through the ridiculousness. If the republicans can stop the mouth breathing Trump obsession, they will most certainly have a shot at taking back Illinois. As long as he is the face of the Republican party, enjoy tubby JB.
One word: Trump. City, suburbanites and far exosuburbanites are done with him. Down state and white trash might love the Manhattan Madman, but the rest of the state sees through the ridiculousness. If the republicans can stop the mouth breathing Trump obsession, they will most certainly have a shot at taking back Illinois. As long as he is the face of the Republican party, enjoy tubby JB.
Thank you for your clever analysis. Illinois is a reach for Republicans no matter who is at the top of the ballot. In general, you have to have a really awful Democrat and a really skilled moderate Republican for Republicans to win a statewide race in Illinois today.
In 2014, Bruce Rauner won every single county aside from Cook and still only garnered 50.3% of the vote in a three-way race where the third party garnered only 3%. In 2010, then-Congressman Mark Kirk only won 48% of the vote in a combined special and general election for the U.S. Senate against an incompetent and blatant crook, Alexi Giannoulias, who garnered 46% himself.
Both 2014 and 2010 were considered good years for Republicans nationally. However, I don't think Illinois Republicans have had a good year since the early 90s. Also, if you look at precinct level data, you will see that the most affluent precincts around the state continued to support Rauner by the same large margins they did in 2014. Rauner's and Illinois Republicans' drop off was steepest among the middle and upper-middle classes.
One word: Trump. City, suburbanites and far exosuburbanites are done with him. Down state and white trash might love the Manhattan Madman, but the rest of the state sees through the ridiculousness. If the republicans can stop the mouth breathing Trump obsession, they will most certainly have a shot at taking back Illinois. As long as he is the face of the Republican party, enjoy tubby JB.
Maybe slightly off topic but my biggest hope is that the Democrats will start asking themselves why the Manhattan Madman got elected in the first place - with 63 million votes. Unfortunately, that doesn't seem to be happening yet but maybe by the 2020 election it will. I guess we'll see.
What Bru said, plus:
The only reason Rauner won in 2014, was that the D base was ticked at Quinn for approving the pension reduction bill (that was later overturned by the IL Supreme Court). They either "sat out" that election, or voted for Rauner out of spite - Rauner had not disclosed his anti-union sentiments during the election, most all state employees who voted for him regretted doing so when his true agenda was revealed.
But the bottom line is, "Why was JB elected?" is best answered by an old joke:
Q) Did you ever notice why, as geese fly in a "V" formation, that one side of the "V" is always longer than the other? Do you know why that is?
A) Because there are more birds on that side.
And so it was with this election. Rauner was unpopular among his own base for several reasons stated above. He had few if any "wins" during his term due to being stymied by the Legislature for his entire term. The public service unions were highly energized from Rauner's attacks on them, and my guess is that they turned out in record numbers - plus, there is a multiplier effect, partly due to family and friends, but mostly because of their willingness to pull off a great ground game, going door-to-door and getting out the D vote; this is what makes the "Machine" such a formidable force. Even DuPage County, long a bastion of Republicans in Illinois, voted blue in this election. Because the majority of the state's population is located north of I-74, and to be honest, I-80, Cook County's influence in statewide elections is almost unstoppable at this point.
So, now the D's have a veto-proof "trifecta" at this point, and can impose their will on the state. I expect them to demand structured roll calls with a representative amount of R's voting in favor, in order to pass any new legislation, that is their way of "avoiding wearing the coat" for laws that harm the electorate, a hallmark of Madigan's tenure. Whether the "limp" remaining R's follow along with that, or just choose to sit out votes, making JB "own" everything that happens from this point forward, remains to be seen. Of course, JB will be blaming Rauner four years from now, when the exodus is up to 75,000 or so per year. In reality, the majority of the $16B debt Rauner "accumulated" is still in the pockets of IL taxpayers, the "State" may owe it, but only because taxpayers were allowed to keep more of their own money for the three years or so that the 5% tax reverted back to 3.75%. That money is still in the pockets of the taxpayers, the only "new debt" Rauner created was the interest on late payments (which was not insignificant, I think it was like $1B). But it takes two to impasse; note how no one remembers that the D's were just a culpable as Rauner for the lack of budgets for what, two full years? Three?
IL is a wealthy state, higher taxes will "work" for the next five or ten years, and the state's condition may actually improve during that time - unless the stock market correction that started in October has really long legs and we see another 2008 - if that happens, all bets are off, the state may be hurt so badly that it seeks Federal intervention, or begins to allow its most debt-ridden municipalities (hello, Chicago) to declare bankruptcy. Refer to the Chinese curse "May you live in interesting times" if this happens.
Finally, in MSChemist's defense, it's hard to pick up and leave while you're mid-career. I've been unwinding my own connections to the state for the last six months, but still have my own house to fix up and sell, and have an Aunt in a nursing home here I have to consider. Maybe she'll move as well, it's up to her, I guess. But if all goes as planned, I'll be gone by late Spring. No worries, I don't care if the door hits me in the butt on the way out, I'm so looking forward to seeing the "Welcome to Illinois" sign in my rear-view mirror for the last time, I wouldn't care if the door hit me in the back of the head. Shame, because I really like my Dr.'s, Dentist, Veterinarian, some long-time friends, etc.; I was born and raised here. But I won't put up with this nonsense any longer. You own it, JB, whatcha gonna do with it?
It’s absurd to defend mschemist for staying in Illinois. Illinois doesn’t need him, he needs Illinois!
It’s absurd to defend mschemist for staying in Illinois. Illinois doesn’t need him, he needs Illinois!
I'd say the Illinois government needs every host it can parasitize off of.
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