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i would say 10 years today is really not long term anymore ..you need to push pretty far out to clear much of the noise for shorter term money with any kind of certainty . we have had quite a few poor 10 year periods for equities
I specifically said greater than 10 years (notated as >10 years), not 10 years.
the market has gone nowhere in a year... negative inflation adjusted growth including dividends, PV shows VFIAX (VG S&P500) Feb '18-'19 has a real CAGR of -0.72%. In addition, 2000-2019 has a real CAGR of 3% which is downright pathetic compared to decades long averages prior to 2000 of 7% real. If the forecast is for the next decades to also be 3% real then the stock market is fundamentally broken.
Anybody have any predictions? That's what I would like to know. My opinion is that the stock market will still be around, but I just do not see any type of massive growth. We should see major drops about to occur to get back to DOW under 15k, then it will go back up again, crash again, up again, crash again.
I just don't see how we ever see a DOW 20k. I don't see how anybody buying stocks TODAY (literally, today) is going to see any real growth on that money. But financial advisers say nothing about this and just keep pointing to those stupid 100-year-old charts. I want to take those damn charts and burn them.
the market has gone nowhere in a year... negative inflation adjusted growth including dividends, PV shows VFIAX (VG S&P500) Feb '18-'19 has a real CAGR of -0.72%. In addition, 2000-2019 has a real CAGR of 3% which is downright pathetic compared to decades long averages prior to 2000 of 7% real. If the forecast is for the next decades to also be 3% real then the stock market is fundamentally broken.
The market also went nowhere from December 2014 to November 2016.
Just when people aren't paying attention, BOOM! - it goes higher.
i prefer to call the long term 15 years and longer .. we just needed 13 years to get a head from 2000 in real return .
we have had 3 fairly step declines in less then 20 years and with computerized trading and high leverage this may be a more frequent play out . . you can see starting 20 years ago the investing landscape shows a big change .
Perusing the chart that you posted, I find much consonance between the 1970s and the 2000s. Thus far, the 2010s are reasonably comparable to the 1980s. It remains to be seen whether the 2020s follow through, in [reasonably] juxtaposing with the 1990s. If they do, the hypothesis of the autocorrelation function having a 30-year period, is going to accumulate more evidence.
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1insider
From June of 2016. Dow 20K seems doubtful.
It's easy to dismiss Joe as a raving idiot, but he does have a point. He's too young to remember the 80s and 90s, and our then-happy (and fatuous) assumptions of perpetual double-digit growth in the stock market. Many of us thought, that if only we secured good jobs, lived frugally and invested aggressively, we'd all become billionaires in 2-3 generations. That's what happens when you extrapolate the recent past into the perpetual future. Joe's kneejerk reaction was a bumbling and inarticulate attempt to state that, indeed, bad times follow good... and the bad-times can last for a decade or longer... o much so, that cognizance of bad-times obscures and even erases fond memories of the good.
well, spoke too fast, strong rally and now a fade to the downside but the Nasdaq is rallying... and I thought small caps would rally as interest rate forecast is down now, strange market!
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