Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
down markets are facts of life ...to many forget that fact ..then they are reminded about that fact when things tumble and after the fact , they realize they don't really want these huge swings ...
so they make portfolio changes after things fell giving back most of what they hung in there for with high equity levels in the first place ..
people need to really look at their investments goals and needs before hand . unfortunately , i want to make as much as i can , rarely works for many mentally .especially as they approach or enter retirement. as they accumulate more and more and the moves in dollars becomes greater and greater and represent more and more expenses that it could have covered.
80% of the time we are between the last low and last high .... so that juicy balance we get to look at near the top that makes it all worth having high equity positions is rarely the balance you will see , especially if we have a decent down turn . .
it has been almost 9 months now that jrkliny and i have been tracking 3 different style portfolio's and the model with 25% equities , gold and long term treasuries is still a head . it has been a head since 2007 in fact .
all these downturns we have had since 1999 in fact have been the great equalizer and more equity positions has not resulted in higher balances for 20 years now as 3 major drops struck .
Last edited by mathjak107; 03-09-2019 at 09:06 AM..
People probably adjust their portfolio after it went back up. I wouldn’t be surprised if they lighten the load a little bit. I know I did, and I’m still down from the recent week.
I'm motivated to skip a meal today, so that I could enjoy 100 meals tomorrow. But tomorrow comes around, and my expectation of 100 meals is thwarted, why bother with today's austerity? And if a bunch of us make similar decisions, what's the aggregate consequence?
This is just another way of asking - What guarantees are there in life? I think we all know the answer to that question.
However, we know from experience that some things are more likely to happen than other things. And that is what we try to go by.
Any good investing book is worth reading at least 2-3 times for the material to sink in. I saw several more on the "also bought" list on that page. I often wonder why there is such a lack of college courses on investing, because it really is like learning a whole different way of thinking. You will definitely learn by reading different perspectives and then by actually testing them on your own.
No matter what any author tells you though, keep in mind that there is risk in all investing and there are no guarantees. Some people try long and hard to look for that holy grail, only to be disappointed. Everything about stock market investing is about probabilities.
the important thing is to not rule out bad things from happening because historically they either happened infrequently or the recovery was short at time .
the important thing is to have a plan that does not try to rule them out and bets only on prosperity , but a plan that allows and plans for bad things happening inherently . then just hope for better .
all these downturns we have had since 1999 in fact have been the great equalizer and more equity positions has not resulted in higher balances for 20 years now as 3 major drops struck .
Even retiree's in 100% equities and spending down in good and bad times have had a very very high success rate over 115 rolling 30 year periods so a lot of what we believe about high equity positions is hog wash and myth circulated by other misinformed people.
Even retiree's in 100% equities and spending down in good and bad times have had a very very high success rate over 115 rolling 30 year periods so a lot of what we believe about high equity positions is hog wash and myth circulated by other misinformed people.
ABSOLUTELY TRUE , 100% EQUITIES HAS A VERY HIGH SUCCESS RATE . but if you notice i said MENTALLY retirees can have a hard time dealing with the large drops on a big portfolio in DOLLAR TERMS .
i have been a very aggressive investor my entire life , but today i don't want huge drops in dollars anymore .. my days of these 50k changes in one day are over .
so my goal is to strike a balance between return and draw down that works well for us ...
Carter Worth says we're headed back to Dec 24th lows... just saying,this definitely looks like a possibility... that was pretty brutal, I feel we will see it again, just my thoughts, I agree with Carter Worth.
oh man Carter Worth now being quoted again...please stop lol
again--if you're a trader anything can happen short term , but CNBC and their "experts" have probaly done more to scare people from equity investing than any other entity...it's actually sad....
In retrospect I should've jumped in on 12/24 but my records show that I did not quite buy on 12/24, but I did buy a little on 12/27 and I bought on 12/31 but that was a scheduled contribution on my 401k and my taxable which was not an active decision on my part.
The way the downturn went I think it collapsed strongly in a waterfall type selloff towards the latter part of the day and 12/25 was a holiday so it was quite difficult to see that coming and capitalize on it. Then on 12/26 it rebounded in spectacular fashion so it wasn't quite apparent that 12/24 was in fact a bottom until later... it was down and up before even one could blink their eye.
I do think I should've re-balanced from bonds more aggressively on 12/26, oh well..next time.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
