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The portfolio I use with the equal amounts of gold , long term treasuries , index funds and short term treasuries was only down 665.00 bucks on the 7 figures in it ...most days are like watching paint dry ....
year to date up 7% which is not to shabby in something this low risk that covers all the outcomes regardless what happens .
I won’t know the other model until later when fidelity updates
Please explain this (the groundwork having been laid for the bust) further.
Also, are you suggesting that market movers, by working behind the curtain, are setting events in motion to facilitate a crash, and will be shorting ahead of the crash, so as to profit from it? Or are you indicating that they are planning to short the market because they merely believe a crash will occur. In other words, are they active or passive participants here?
Thanks.
Groundwork meaning you have to go all the way back to the first signs of the most recent liquidity crisis in fall 2019 with the repo market crisis. The Fed backstopped that for the time being. Since then they have expanded their balance sheet by over $3 trillion and are now even in the corporate debt market. All of this is adding exponential leverage and complexity to a system that was already showing liquidity red flags last fall. The Fed will continue adding and expanding through this summer introducing even more leverage and complexity. So this is all part of the groundwork in which I am referring to.
And I absolutely think that the big smart money knows the gig is about up (from a passive standpoint to address you question). I think they are looking for signs of a Fed pause, and they will be all-in on cash and/or short. Fed expansion is the only game in town right now. And when that stops/pauses - watch out below.
I know in the "alternative" financial community many think the Fed is engineering a crash. I wouldn't go that far. I don't think the Fed wants to go to Mad Max. I just think they have introduced so much leverage and complexity into the equation that one policy mistake and it all comes crashing down. And then you have the rest of the world to add into the mix that the Fed has little control over. European/Asian banking systems for example.
This is just yet another example where the avalanche is ready to slide and it is going to just take that final snowflake to set it all into motion. But this time the avalanche is bigger than usual.
Other evidence is that the Fed started lowering rates in mid-2019, and there were other shaky signs for concern underneath the surface last year despite the markets bubbling.
I can't remember a year in my life that some weren't pointing to shaky signs. In 2018 people were warning of an impending collapse in 2019. In 2017 people were warning of an impending collapse in 2018. And so on. The rate cuts in a supposedly good economy were unorthodox but one might say the feds were trying to nip any softness in the bud and not to repeat the conventional mistake of acting too late.
Thank you. I like the crypto story and I understand the draw to it. I have traded Bitcoin in the past and made some good trades, but I am not currently in it. Paul Tudor Jones is an investor I respect and he just put 1%-2% of his portfolio in Bitcoin. I agree with him that it is a good speculative play in our current environment of central bank action. I personally think Bitcoin and other cryptos will trade similar to gold looking forward to the coming inflationary environment that is still about 1.5-2 years away in my opinion. My biggest concerns with existing cryptos are as follows:
1. Central banks and world governments are currently working on their own digital currencies and digital wallets. What will this competition and potential additional "crackdown" from governments mean to the existing cryptos?
2. The IRS is also looking to clamp down further on existing cryptos. They are currently seeking third-party "consultants" to help with their crackdown.
3. What happens to Bitcoin in a sharp deflationary bust environment? That remains to be seen.......
4. And what happens to this crypto space if the lights go out for some extreme reason? Lights go out I still have my gold, silver, and physical cash. Will I still have my cryptos when the lights come back on and what would that mean for price?
All something to think about. I like them as a speculative play but wouldn't have more than 5% of my overall portfolio in them.
great insight, thanks for the response. a lot of great points.
although my position will be a bit higher, i do like the caution but also curiosity behind this crypto space.
I can't remember a year in my life that some weren't pointing to shaky signs. In 2018 people were warning of an impending collapse in 2019. In 2017 people were warning of an impending collapse in 2018. And so on. The rate cuts in a supposedly good economy were unorthodox but one might say the feds were trying to nip any softness in the bud and not to repeat the conventional mistake of acting too late.
For 33 years i have been hearing about impending doom over something or another ...meh ..
I can't remember a year in my life that some weren't pointing to shaky signs. In 2018 people were warning of an impending collapse in 2019. In 2017 people were warning of an impending collapse in 2018. And so on. The rate cuts in a supposedly good economy were unorthodox but one might say the feds were trying to nip any softness in the bud and not to repeat the conventional mistake of acting too late.
Homestly I remember a lot more calm. Volatility more of an occasional condition than the norn, like choppy seas or bumpy air, not the whole journey.
Also a lot more logical movement in accordance with economic data and things like earnings reports. In 2004-07 the economic data was mostly good. Markets went up. We knew housing was a bubble but it made a kind of sense. Hoped it wouldn't pop too bad. Then 08-10 the data was bad. The bubble burst in a bad way, companies reported bad earnings, markets went down.
We live in a world today as if earnings reports are meaningless. There are literally dual headlines on CNBC - "highest umemployment ever recorded" and "Company X reports 40% drop in earnings" while the scroll reads "Best market gain since 1938" wtf
When Trump was elected it put us all in a kind of precipice-mode. The markets started reacting wildly to all kinds of events large and small, reflecting his hyperbole. Everything is either hopelessly falling apart or the best most beautiful time ever.
How many times in the past 3 years have CNBC's headlines been along the lines of "Trade War, ZOMG!" And the next day "Trade War calms down, markets rise 800 points!" then 3 days later "Trade Tensions send markets down 500 points!," and back and forth.
I'll be so glad when he's gone. It's exhausting.
And I think we're still in that paradigm now. We're already getting damned trade war talk again and the market still gyrates like mad over any hint of vaccine or lockdown.
Homestly I remember a lot more calm. Volatility more of an occasional condition than the norn, like choppy seas or bumpy air, not the whole journey.
Also a lot more logical movement in accordance with economic data and things like earnings reports. In 2004-07 the economic data was mostly good. Markets went up. We knew housing was a bubble but it made a kind of sense. Hoped it wouldn't pop too bad. Then 08-10 the data was bad. The bubble burst in a bad way, companies reported bad earnings, markets went down.
We live in a world today as if earnings reports are meaningless. There are literally dual headlines on CNBC - "highest umemployment ever recorded" and "Company X reports 40% drop in earnings" while the scroll reads "Best market gain since 1938" wtf
When Trump was elected it put us all in a kind of precipice-mode. The markets started reacting wildly to all kinds of events large and small, reflecting his hyperbole. Everything is either hopelessly falling apart or the best most beautiful time ever.
How many times in the past 3 years have CNBC's headlines been along the lines of "Trade War, ZOMG!" And the next day "Trade War calms down, markets rise 800 points!" then 3 days later "Trade Tensions send markets down 500 points!," and back and forth.
I'll be so glad when he's gone. It's exhausting.
And I think we're still in that paradigm now. We're already getting damned trade war talk again and the market still gyrates like mad over any hint of vaccine or lockdown.
profits were ALWAYS meaningless .... there never was direct link between stock gains and profits ....again it is almost like you constantly are looking for reasons to find fault in investing since you can't actually be much of an investor without the funds to be one ....
as much as we think higher profits lead to higher stock prices it really does not work like that .
markets are based on greed ,fear and perception not the here and now .
gains and corporate profits don't flow together more often than not.
in the book a random walk down wall street 548 NYSE issues were tracked and analyzed over 5 year periods and the results were the performance had no relationship between the technical and fundamental signals and the actual stock performance ..
ned davis research took another look at the relationship and going as far back as 1927 they found when profits rose more than:
20% the s&p returned a mere 1.3% in gains
10 to 20% saw 5.8% in gains
(-10% to + 10% in profits saw a 9.3% jump in gains
profits were ALWAYS meaningless .... there never was direct link between stock gains and profits ....again it is almost like you constantly are looking for reasons to find fault in investing since you can't actually be much of an investor without the funds to be one ....
as much as we think higher profits lead to higher stock prices it really does not work like that .
markets are based on greed ,fear and perception not the here and now .
gains and corporate profits don't flow together more often than not.
in the book a random walk down wall street 548 NYSE issues were tracked and analyzed over 5 year periods and the results were the performance had no relationship between the technical and fundamental signals and the actual stock performance ..
ned davis research took another look at the relationship and going as far back as 1927 they found when profits rose more than:
20% the s&p returned a mere 1.3% in gains
10 to 20% saw 5.8% in gains
(-10% to + 10% in profits saw a 9.3% jump in gains
(-10%) to (-25%) drop in profits saw 28.6% gains
(-25%) and lower saw a -28% drop in share price.
I have some some positions in companies I believe in but I'm not going to bet the farm on them, as well as an ETF portfolio that I'm holding for now. We also have a 403b through my wife's job for what that's worth, assuming that job keeps up its contributions. A sketchy thing right now that their revenue has dropped 60-70%. Not sure she'll have that job in 6 months because the place may not survive. I'm invested through the state pension program so the health of the markets is of interest to me.
Well a point in the earlier thread I talked about was that we little guys are not relevant to the game. 84% of stocks are owned by the richest 10%, so no, we're not all that relevant here.
I have some some positions in companies I believe in but I'm not going to bet the farm on them, as well as an ETF portfolio that I'm holding for now. We also have a 403b through my wife's job for what that's worth, assuming that job keeps up its contributions. A sketchy thing right now that their revenue has dropped 60-70%. Not sure she'll have that job in 6 months because the place may not survive. I'm invested through the state pension program so the health of the markets is of interest to me.
Well a point in the earlier thread I talked about was that we little guys are not relevant to the game. 84% of stocks are owned by the richest 10%, so no, we're not all that relevant here.
by your own words , you have a very small position , like 9% and cant afford to put in anymore. that is having little skin and compounding going on so yeah sour grapes are real easy to feel when you see others making nice returns on a fair amount of dollars when they run high equity models .
us little guys like me are the big guys ... collectively we make up trillions in fidelity investments , vanguard and all the biggest fund companies in the world so that is nonsense .
we have met the enemy and he is us . my contra fund has 112 billion ...that is a big boy .
by your own words , you have a very small position , like 9% and cant afford to put in anymore. that is having little skin and compounding going on so yeah sour grapes are real easy to feel when you see others making nice returns on a fair amount of dollars when they run high equity models .
us little guys like me are the big guys ... collectively we make up trillions in fidelity investments , vanguard and all the biggest fund companies in the world so that is nonsense .
we have met the enemy and he is us . my contra fund has 112 billion ...that is a big boy .
Won't.
I could sink my savings but that would not be prudent given the uncertain jobs situation. Will increase contributions when the covid threat is done.
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