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I am likely to deploy about half of my investment cash over the next week to ten days. Then I’ll have a further amount, maybe even 150% more, to deploy in the month or so after. I think everyone buys way too late, and they keep forgetting the lessons of the past. The market always recovers before there’s a “Main Street” recovery and before people on the ground see the results. People here were whining about “the recession” like two years after it ended from 2008-09. Markets had already begun to rebound strong. If you wait until the waters are calm you’re going to miss out on the biggest gains.
If the market keeps falling, fantastic, I’ll keep deploying more and more cash into it on the way down. And probably some more on the way up. I’m getting greedy because about when it starts looking the darkest, and even as the trend looks down, that’s when to buy I think. Maybe the Dow goes down another 4-5 thousand, I could see it, but I won’t regret I put my first money in at 19K. I’ll just be even happier more went in after. I think anyone buying right now and in the next few weeks will double their money in 5 years.
FYI for people following this thread. "Unlimited" QE announced this morning by the Fed.........
QE money goes into bank reserves that can be lent out. It really does not makes its way into mainstream economy as money that can just be freely spent. Its purpose is it pushes down interest rates and encourages banks to lend. I do not think it just throws money into the public that can be picked up and freely spent from checking and savings accounts or physical cash at least not initially
Even QE1, QE2, and QE3 the last 11 years did not really change the M1 and M0 money supply in average bank accounts for the average person the last 10 years.
Now helicopter money on the other hand makes its way right to mainstream economy and can be freely spent. I am not sure the FED can do helicopter money without some approval form congress?
I suppose that QE money in theory could make its way into mainstream economy and cause runaway inflation, but it would take many years at least. Even QE1, QE2, and QE3 money has not made its way into mainstream economy nearly 10 years later. All it has done is caused stupid low credit rates which has caused stupidly high home prices and increase college education cost and some forms of health care. But it has not caused much if any rise in prices in food, clothes, energy, electronics, etc...
Last edited by Wolverine607; 03-23-2020 at 08:46 AM..
I recently posted in the Las Vegas forum how this is possible, but it will be absolutely horrible if it does. If this happens, it will be because of currency devaluation. It would be the exact same situation that happened in Venezuela. In other words, the DOW would be at 100,000, but a gallon of milk would cost $1,000. I do not see the 50% drop in this scenerio . Just to be clear, I am not saying any of this is going to happen, just that it is a possibility.
Anything's possible!! Classic case is Crooked Hillary's loss(es!)
Today might have just been the start of that runup that heart is forecasting.
I think many people FEEL this way, but I don't think it is. People are wishing and praying that a run up comes fast. I'd think of it as a person dying to get married and marries the first person that proposes. Buying into this "run up" could be like marrying someone after seeing them for 3 days. It very well could run up for 3 straight days, but I think there's another down day around the corner (Monday) that slides back into reality.
We haven't even seen the impact in numbers, people sick, industries lost, etc. It'd be really early for a run-up.
I know someone working on this in Seattle. If it follows normal FDA channels it will take a year and half to get approved. Considering this is an emergency situation and there is a good chance it comes back end of year again I hope they allow some experimental use of it way before.
Research the H1N1 vaccine timeline. It went to human clinical testing in July 2009, received FDA approval in September 2009, and was widely available in December 2009. They CAN get it done amazingly quick if they want to badly enough, regardless of how long it normally takes.
"Even if the research goes well, a vaccine would not be available for widespread use for 12 to 18 months, said Dr. Anthony Fauci of the U.S. National Institutes of Health."
Way too much has shut down for me to get bullish.
Ask Dr. Fauci to tell you about the H1N1 vaccine development.
Here comes the moonshot. I am predicting new highs in stocks by mid-May. Sounds crazy but people also said the same thing about my market correction prediction in early 2020 and my call back in 2019 for a deflationary recession by July 2020.
Bearishness is extreme now. Watch how quickly the tables turn here. The Fed and central banks around the world are engaged in record easing as I have predicted would happen. The virus is the excuse for this easing, but major cracks in liquidity were starting to show in late summer 2019. When the hysteria over the virus diminishes that record easing is still in place. Extremely bullish in the shorter-term for stocks.
If you follow my posts on here I predicted a correction in early 2020 where the little grasshoppers would get fried. Then we have a final moonshot in equities due to extreme CB intervention. It will be a quick manic run up over the course of the next few months. Then after the manic high wears off we get a 50+% bust in equities on the back half of 2020 into 2021. It will be absolutely brutal.
Watch and see!
You are absolutely nuts.
There will be bumps up when there is positive news. However, with an expected fall of 25% in GDP, there is no way in hell that stocks revisit the highs of this year- no way.
There WILL BE a contraction in the economy for at least a few quarters from what has happened ALREADY. Stocks do not rise with falling corporate earnings, reduced incomes, and increased personal and corporate defaults.
Nothing goes straight up (or straight down). However, there has been a cohort of investors over the last ten years that are convinced that stocks grow to the sky and there will never, ever be such thing as a bear market, despite valuations (before the fall) of being 65% higher than expected norms.
When had we reached similar valuations? 1929, 2000, and 2007. If you think we will achieve Schiller P/E ratios of 32 this year, you are out of your mind.
Keep in mind we have not seen the peak of the corona virus and only the early stages of its economic impact. Also, there will be an "echo" effect of a return of the virus in the fall/winter.
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