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I am not so sure there would have been a correction if we didn't have the coronavirus. The economy was smoking and being an election year, Trump wanted to keep things moving along.
The virus was the final snowflake that caused an avalanche. There is always that final snowflake and if it wouldn't have been the virus it would have been blamed on something else. The powers to be always have to have a scapegoat. The truth is the system is extremely over-leveraged and major cracks behind the curtain were showing late last summer when the Fed was doing consecutive rate cuts and propping up the repo market in "the greatest economy ever." The yield curve also inverted during that time period in that "great economy" (think - why would a yield curve invert if things were so fantastic?) lol. The powers to be knew the system was unwinding quickly at this point in time. The more leverage in the system the faster the unwind.
When the BIG avalanche comes later this year into 2021 the powers to be will have another scapegoat (my guess is re-emergence of virus + election). The fact is the over-leveraged system is hanging on a string, and what the Fed has done in the last two weeks makes the system more leveraged than ever......
we go out for groceries ..... you can't even schedule a home delivery here unless you get lucky and get a spot 3 weeks out .....
we go out and run at the park daily too ..... just keeping away from people as best we can , but life still goes on ...
dong lots of drumming at home too although the shows are off for now ... i had just started the 50th anniversary tour with some well know artists and for now it is suspended ...
Rolling Stones concert series was just suspended, coincidence here?
OP's forecast looks pretty good so far. Got into SPY @230 for the moonshot and up over 10% currently. Some have criticized and even ridiculed his forecast but IMO it definitely merits serious consideration.
Thanks. I got called the same things and worse last year at the record highs when I said a correction was coming in early 2020 that "would fry the little grasshoppers." People were hypnotized by their record gains and they bought into the fallacious tripe about "the greatest economy ever." The greatest economy ever doesn't need consecutive rate cuts at already near-ZIRP levels like we had back in summer 2019. The greatest economy ever doesn't see a yield-curve inversion. And the greatest economy ever doesn't need $50+billion daily to prop up the repo markets like we had in fall 2019.......
I agree with this Richard. I have followed this forum for a long time before joining and Heart84 was also predicting a correction in the early part of 2020 and a recession by the middle of 2020. And this was back in 2019. Heart has had great calls and the timing has been impressive. So my question is for Heart84 is this moonshot as you call it just a straight run up or do you see a retracement back to the lows or near lows?
Thank you. I research this stuff for many hours every day so I feel confident in my forecasts. I am not a day trader by any means though. I look for longer-term trends overall. With that said we have had a very quick run-up from the lows to where we are today. It is almost an accelerated moonshot. Remember my initial forecast for the moonshot back to the highs was over a couple of months not days lol. Every trader and their mother out there are looking for a retest of the lows and many to go even lower. Still a lot of bearish sentiment out there, and my shorter-term outlook is still a moonshot back to record highs. Nothing goes in a straight line though so there will ups and downs along the way.
With that said given the quickness of this run-up over the last few days I just sold 25% of my overall position in SPY (in at $230) at $258.25. Wanted to lock in a nice 12%+ gain with that portion and will look to re-enter this position if we have some down days into next week. Still holding 75% of my position in SPY at $230.
Rolling Stones concert series was just suspended, coincidence here?
Nah ,,,,all concerts are suspended everywhere , so nope not replacing Charlie watts ..I was never a stones fan. .... but I am sitting in on shows with recording artists who are going on 50 years of playing ..... I was associated with them back in the 1970’s ....
Also my buddy was right in the middle of a world tour with the Bowie alumni band .... he was part of the Bowie glass spyder tour in the 1980’s ....they got all the guys from the tour together and have been selling out venues through out the world.
So this virus is killing all these great opportunities to play
I'm sick I didn't purchase BA when it was $95.00, I sat and watched it for a day, and then ignored it for two, and totally, totally, totally missed the bounce! Now its day 3 and I'm just walking away, knowing I blew it.
I'm sick I didn't purchase BA when it was $95.00, I sat and watched it for a day, and then ignored it for two, and totally, totally, totally missed the bounce! Now its day 3 and I'm just walking away, knowing I blew it.
CNBC is a good contrarian indicator. I posted about this in a previous post, but when that Ackman interview was on and he was so hysterical, that was a good contrarian tell to buy. Once I saw that interview I literally immediately bought SPY. He was ranting and raving, sobbing, said he ran down to the bank to withdraw as much cash as he could and then said Hilton stock was going to $0, and less than 60 seconds later said he was buying a ton of it lol. Buying a ton of stock that he just said was going to $0. Can't make that stuff up.
When CNBC (or Fox Business) gets in peak fear mode it is a good time to buy. When they were talking about the greatest economy ever and how the stock market can only go higher, good time to sell. They have been at both ends of the extremes just in the last 50 days lol.
Do I still have a shot at the moon from all of this?
Which moon?
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