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one other factor when it comes to bonds is also dependent on whether your human capital is a stock or a bond .
what that means is what you do for a living can be a big factor .
a doctor , a lawyer , most professionals , have careers that are like bonds . they don't shift through good or bad times as compared to a restaurant owner or manufacturer of certain products would be more stock like and more linked to the cycle ...
a more bond like career path may want to hold no or little bonds ... a more stock like career path may need income sooner because there income is more stock like and cycle dependent .
Am I in an alt history forum? Ambitious is in here lecturing about risk tolerances and staying the course, when weeks ago he or she was admitting to being frazzled, drinking, and was literally making full allocation decisions multiple times in the same day.
Am I in an alt history forum? Ambitious is in here lecturing about risk tolerances and staying the course, when weeks ago he or she was admitting to being frazzled, drinking, and was literally making full allocation decisions multiple times in the same day.
it is part of the learning curve ... we all start out believing our own bull-sh*t ....
but as we learn more , HOPEFULLY that which we believed which was not the best way goes away, and you learn the real deal and learn what you thought you know ,
- ain't necessarily so ....
for whatever reason people want a short cut to learning what really is a profession ... they want simple answer and there is no such thing .... just because something worked in one part of the cycle does not mean it is a good choice in another part .
bonds were easy , when we had a 40 year bull market in them except for an occasional speed bump .
you could have ski'd down the yield curve for decades . well we are at zero or close to it and issuing more bonds like crazy with cracks in the bond markets , repo markets and even treasuries now .. we have no idea what is coming next .... but odds of one size fits all in fixed income working is slim .
Last edited by mathjak107; 04-23-2020 at 05:16 AM..
So, I don't consider myself an investor. I mean I've had $ in the stock market for years, but select stocks, and I've made moderate gains.
I noticed that most of these retirement 'funds' and 'indexes' are basically random groups that have a random volatility where your gains and losses could be unpredictable when compared against the market. Picking one is basically gambling. If I wanted to gamble then I can go to a casino.
I think putting aside small cap, large cap, energy, growth, aggressive, all of this garbage they pay people 200K salaries to come up with hundreds and hundreds of funds (which still don't beat the SP500), that it can be simplified.
So, I figured the simplification goes like this ...
-If you are close to retirement or are risk adverse, then you go with an almost 100% bond fund. You won't get crushed in events like COVID and you don't have to time the market. Your 2 and 5 year gains will be minimal, but likely you'll see a little.
-If you want the middle of the road you're in your 40s/50s, then invest in an SP500 index fund. Tracks the market basically. It wins, you win, it loses, you lose.
-If you want big risk and big gains and want aggressive growth, then invest in an almost 100% stock technology fund.
That seems to me to be it...
Investing has nearly none of the same characteristics as gambling. As soon as someone says that, you know they don’t have education in finance or investing.
Going all tech stocks or all bonds also seems like a terrible idea.
I also think individual stock picking is a terrible idea for most. Many in our society can’t even balance a checkbook, so expecting them to understand an investment profile is not the best practice. Let the professionals and professionally designed funds do it for you.
Just like I don’t spend time trying to treat my own wounds or figure out how to repair my car. Do what you do. Specialize in it. Make good money. Pay the professionals to do what they do. There’s pretty much a plan for everything that’s considered best practice and mostly optimized .
Investing has nearly none of the same characteristics as gambling. As soon as someone says that, you know they don’t have education in finance or investing.
Going all tech stocks or all bonds also seems like a terrible idea.
I also think individual stock picking is a terrible idea for most. Many in our society can’t even balance a checkbook, so expecting them to understand an investment profile is not the best practice. Let the professionals and professionally designed funds do it for you.
Just like I don’t spend time trying to treat my own wounds or figure out how to repair my car. Do what you do. Specialize in it. Make good money. Pay the professionals to do what they do. There’s pretty much a plan for everything that’s considered best practice and mostly optimized .
it is part of the learning curve ... we all start out believing our own bull-sh*t ....
but as we learn more , HOPEFULLY that which we believed which was not the best way goes away, and you learn the real deal and learn what you thought you know ,
- ain't necessarily so ....
for whatever reason people want a short cut to learning what really is a profession ... they want simple answer and there is no such thing .... just because something worked in one part of the cycle does not mean it is a good choice in another part .
bonds were easy , when we had a 40 year bull market in them except for an occasional speed bump .
you could have ski'd down the yield curve for decades .
I agree with you people can learn and change.
However, the timers who bailed showed at the first sign of adversity they don’t believe in sticking the course. We’ve been having stock gains mostly since then. It’s easy to say you’ve changed now. Will they be able to say the same when the cockpit is on fire again? Maybe later this fall maybe 4 years from now. Maybe 8.
I always used to say it on these forums, how until this crash I had never actually experienced a crash where I had investable assets. 2008 effected me tremendously but not as an investor. I didn’t prove I actually believed in holding the course until I was down 30% just a few weeks ago. That’s when I was actually under the gun losing tens of thousands of my early retirement nest egg.
no , i meant as far as other comments here in this thread
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