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Have you learned your lesson though? Under adversity you cracked. You’re not under adversity now, so whose to say you won’t crack again in 12 years if you lose 40%? I don’t know how you’ll react when you’re actually losing money other than the time I’ve seen you on here. And you exhibited the definition of poor investor behavior.
Yes, I have learned the lesson. This was my first major Bear Market Crash. It looked to me (like it STILL looks to a lot of other investors) that The DOW was going to 14k.
I never tried to time the market, but it really really looked like I could time it "this" time. I was wrong and I immediately came back on here (and Bogleheads) and said I was freaking wrong. I then continued to recommend setting proper allocation and staying the course.
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Originally Posted by Thatsright19
I know what the difference between investing and speculating is. You were saying speculating is gambling and it absolutely is not gambling.
I think I already answered your last point.
And hey, I respect your opinion lol. It's just in my opinion that when people for example stuff tons of money into TESLA's stock, that's speculation. In my opinion, speculation is very very similar to gambling (The Casino). And Jack Bogle agreed with me.
jack bogle was a brilliant marketer ... less so a researcher and predictor.. they grew an empire selling do it yourself investing ... which they now produced a study on that says many small investors are getting poor results for all sorts of reasons doing it themselves and they can see as much as 3% more by letting a pro handle their money and keep them away from it.
If the individual investor is getting poor results, it's because they are listening to people like you MathJak, who keep telling them to move things around rather than staying the course lol.
If they would stick with Core Equity and Bond holdings, set automatic contributions, set allocation properly, and move on with their life...they will be fine.
But they keep reading Investing Blogs, videos, etc., about how the world is going to end or how Bonds will go to hell, or how the Stock Market will crash, and they start to move funds around into all sorts of things and significantly increase the complexity of this entire thing.
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Originally Posted by mathjak107
there has not been a bear market in bonds for the last 40 years other then some bumps in the road ... the few we did have had bond investors freaking out here from their losses . wit and see what happens when the trend reverses or liquidy tightens up .... oh wait we just did when total bond funds took a dive a few weeks ago .....
Gloom and Doom. This is why individual investors get poor results. They read Blogs like this, see stuff like this posted, and start moving things around trying to avoid some doomsday situation.
For the individual investor without a lot of time nor technical knowledge, it's best they stick with a Core Equity holding and Core Bond holding, then move on with their life.
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Originally Posted by mathjak107
you want to think it is just buy a total bond fund and you are set forever , go ahead ....like you learned about stocks eventually you will learn about bonds and holding the wrong fund at the wrong time
If the individual investor is getting poor results, it's because they are listening to people like you MathJak, who keep telling them to move things around rather than staying the course lol.
If they would stick with Core Equity and Bond holdings, set automatic contributions, set allocation properly, and move on with their life...they will be fine.
But they keep reading Investing Blogs, videos, etc., about how the world is going to end or how Bonds will go to hell, or how the Stock Market will crash, and they start to move funds around into all sorts of things and significantly increase the complexity of this entire thing.
Gloom and Doom. This is why individual investors get poor results. They read Blogs like this, see stuff like this posted, and start moving things around trying to avoid some doomsday situation.
For the individual investor without a lot of time nor technical knowledge, it's best they stick with a Core Equity holding and Core Bond holding, then move on with their life.
Gloom and Doom.
They, being you, in that you moved your money after you lost a ton of money, missed some historic up days or parts of them, and reacted entirely out of fear (emotion) and headlines (short term noise).
I don’t know if he said that, but if he did, he’s wrong as well. I don’t care what his reputation is on other matters, he’s wrong there.
Gambling is a set game with real expected values. It’s also merely shifting money around in zero sum.
Speculating doesn’t have either of those characteristics that make gambling what it is. There’s a reason they all are different terms.
You have every right to believe that Jack Bogle is "wrong as hell".....but I think people would be better suited following his advice than an anonymous person on the internet without a video vlog, book, blog, or anything that outlines why he is a better "advisor" than Jack Bogle .
You have every right to believe that Jack Bogle is "wrong as hell".....but I think people would be better suited following his advice than an anonymous person on the internet without a video vlog, book, blog, or anything that outlines why he is a better "advisor" than Jack Bogle .
Just because he’s a better finance person than me, doesn’t mean he can’t be flatly wrong on something if he did indeed say what you’re saying he said.
You don’t get granted immunity on being right on everything because you’re an expert in certain areas. Experts can be wrong, and should have the ability to adjust accordingly. That’s part of what being an expert is. Admitting you are wrong and that the more you know about a topic the less you start to think you know because you see how complicated it really is. If he said that, it’s wrong. Period. There’s not even a debate.
You have every right to believe that Jack Bogle is "wrong as hell".....but I think people would be better suited following his advice than an anonymous person on the internet without a video vlog, book, blog, or anything that outlines why he is a better "advisor" than Jack Bogle .
well here is the models i follow and since i started in 1987 it has beaten indexing in an s&p fund or total market fund by over 500k starting with 100k ....
that involves occasional fund swaps to better choices .... quite a few of us use these models here .
so yeah it is not hard at all to beat the indexing concept bogle sold to investors .
Just because he’s a better finance person than me, doesn’t mean he can’t be flatly wrong on something if he did indeed say what you’re saying he said.
You don’t get granted immunity on being right on everything because you’re an expert in certain areas. Experts can be wrong, and should have the ability to adjust accordingly. That’s part of what being an expert is. Admitting you are wrong and that the more you know about a topic the less you start to think you know because you see how complicated it really is. If he said that, it’s wrong. Period. There’s not even a debate.
Well, for one, you keep saying "if he said that" and it's actually the basis of his Indexing philosophy. A 2 minute read on Jack Bogle usually begins with the thesis lol.
And number two, buddy, it's your money. Do whatever you want with it. Call it speculating, call it investing, call it whatever you want. You are correct in that Investing has no Gospel to it. There are people that believe Indexing is stupid. There are people that believe Indexing is the only way.
As for me, I'm remaining locked into the teachings of Bogle.
Sir, I'm not sure why you keep trying to throw this in my face lol. You are just reaching at this point.
I’m not throwing it in your face so much as I’m pointing out that you keep offering this sage advice about how people make bad decisions just weeks within the shadow of you doing the same.
You made a massive mistake, and downplay it by saying you made it early. That’s a blessing and a curse. It means you MAY not make it again under real pressure, however, early mistakes are the most costly of all because they have the longest to compound. There should be no sense of relief because “oh I made it early”.
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