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Don't get me wrong, I appreciate all the responses.
But I want simplicity..................
Here's an article - and a book, if you want - that may interest you. A lazy portfolio is a diversified portfolio of low-cost index funds that allows you to…well, be lazy. That means no active trading, no checking your stocks every day, and no paying some hedge fund manager to handle your money. https://www.iwillteachyoutoberich.co...azy-portfolio/
FWIW, I don't use a 401k, have a pension of 450$/month, and have been comfortable retired since 2010. The recent downturn did not affect any change in lifestyle or checkbook balance.
What you want to do is easily done.
my point was do not blindly make recommendations to others based on your limited understanding of things at this point ...
my points are to show you why your assumption about total bond funds being one size fits all can be quite wrong ... it needs no further discussion . it was all spelled out for you ... no one is telling anyone to use that bond model ... it is only an example of how different bond funds play different rolls in different parts of the cycle and stages of our lives ...
take it for what it is worth or go argue with someone else.
and yes , owning the wrong bond fund at the wrong time is risky and will bring losses . kitces dos not recommend how you allocate at different times of a cycle , it is not what he does in his studies .
in fact he does not prefer much in bonds at all , even for retirees .
MathJak, you gotta calm down . Everytime someone challenges you or disagrees with you, you snap. Are you used to this forum being an echo cin his studies .hamber? Nobody has to agree with anything you say on here. I for the record agree with you on some things and then other things I don't, because you don't seem to keep a consistent message over a long period of time. One minute you are timing the market, the next minute you are saying one can't time the market. You speculate on stocks and gold, while at the same time you preach Indexing. You gotta calm down man.
You see this is one of the main reasons why most in America don't save, don't invest, and are completely lost when it comes to investing. The OP asked for simplification, meaning, he's already confused, and Mathjak just went on and on for pages and pages adding enormous complexity to a subject that honestly, doesn't take all of this.
- MathJak, nobody wants to own and track 8 to 10 Bond Funds. It does not matter that The Total Bond Index doesn't represent all of the Bonds on the trading market, it's a CORE Bond holding and gives someone the ability to have a solid Bond holding in their portfolio, then move on with their life.
- Jack Bogle recommended no more than 2 or 3 Funds. That's it. As an Individual Investor, you can set your allocation to the following:
* For US equity, you can hold either The Total US Stock Market or The S&P 500 Index
* For US bonds, you can hold The Total Bond Market Index
* For International equity (if you choose to diversify out there) you can hold Total International Stock Fund
Set your allocation based on Risk Tolerance and move on with your life. No, I do not recommend the OP set there reading report after report, book after book, fund prospectus after prospectus, to try to figure out how to manage 10 Bond Funds. That's just utterly ridiculous. Nobody has that much time on their hands.
Last edited by mathjak107; 04-23-2020 at 08:34 AM..
Well, it seems like you are so used to an echo chamber that the moment any post disagrees with you (even slightly) or challenges you, you snap. It's as if you quite arrogantly think you hold some sort of total authority on "Investing" and how dare anybody challenge Mr. Mathjak .
Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107
my point was do not blindly make recommendations to others based on your limited understanding of things at this point ...
And here we go. This is the part where MathJak says that I know absolutely nothing about investing and that I need to go READ .
Quote:
Originally Posted by mathjak107
my points are to show you why your assumption about total bond funds being one size fits all can be quite wrong ...
Okay and I didn't say The Total Bond Fund was a "one size fits all", nor did I say it represents all of the bonds in the trading market. I never said that. Ever. I said it's a Core Bond holding for someone looking for simplification (that's the key word, simplification).
Now, if you want to get all technical with it, then sure, go out there and hold 10 Bond Funds along with study prospectus/reports all day long. But most of us have a life and don't want to spend considerable amounts of time studying this stuff all day. That's why it's called Passive Investing. You buy an Index, hold it, and move on. What you are recommending is very much Active Stock/Bond Investing and there's nothing at all "simple" about that. That's more a side day job.
Well, it seems like you are so used to an echo chamber that the moment any post disagrees with you (even slightly) or challenges you, you snap. It's as if you quite arrogantly think you hold some sort of total authority on "Investing" and how dare anybody challenge Mr. Mathjak .
And here we go. This is the part where MathJak says that I know absolutely nothing about investing and that I need to go READ .
Okay and I didn't say The Total Bond Fund was a "one size fits all", nor did I say it represents all of the bonds in the trading market. I never said that. Ever. I said it's a Core Bond holding for someone looking for simplification (that's the key word, simplification).
Now, if you want to get all technical with it, then sure, go out there and hold 10 Bond Funds along with study prospectus/reports all day long. But most of us have a life and don't want to spend considerable amounts of time studying this stuff all day. That's why it's called Passive Investing. You buy an Index, hold it, and move on. What you are recommending is very much Active Stock/Bond Investing and there's nothing at all "simple" about that. That's more a side day job.
and my reply was simple answers to complex questions are usually going to be the wrong answers or not the best choices.. there is nothing simple about not losing money ... don't confuse a 40 year bull market in bonds with the fact people can lose a lot of money picking the wrong bond fund at the wrong time when conditions change or end up with little protection for their portfolios ...
lesson number one .... never confuse any other types of bonds funds with treasury bond funds ... they do not react the same in a flight to safety or the recession side of a cycle ..
Last edited by mathjak107; 04-23-2020 at 08:45 AM..
Well, I have to correct you . I was frazzled and drinking (still been drinking lol) but I was not making full allocation changes multiple times a day. The Thread is up for you to go back and review. I was trying to time the market. I thought (really really thought) I could get away with it this time. The Thread is up, I literally was out of the market for a few trading hours on Tuesday, March 24th. I came to my senses quick (real quick) that I just don't have enough information, data, access, etc. to effectively "time" this stuff so I jumped back in through an S&P 500 Index ETF (I was in an S&P 500 Index Fund prior).
In terms of booking losses, sir, I didn't book any losses. It's a wash. Technically, it's like nothing happened
Well, actually you can speculate on Individual Stocks or GOLD like Mathjak does all the time. That right there is gambling. Buying and holding a broad based index fund is what is considered investing, but far too many in The Investing Community make posts in regards to speculation activities. Again, most of MathJak's posts are about his speculation activities. You don't have to take my word on it, just look up his post history.
I agree that only investing in one sector of The Stock Market is a little off, but going all Bonds (if they are spread out amongst investment grade categories) isn't a terrible idea if the focus is on wealth preservation.
So just to confirm here, you are recommending that folks get a Financial Advisor and pay them 1% to 3% (or more) of their portfolio?
You may have only actually moved the money on that Tuesday, but you definitely talked your way in each direction and said you would move it versus not move it several times.
Investing isn’t speculating or gambling. And speculating isn’t gambling either. Again, the terms have very key differences, and they don’t operate anywhere near the same. For example, gambling is a zero sum game and has expected values, even speculating has neither of those. So none of them are the same. Anyone who says there the same, doesn’t actually understand the differences between them.
I don’t recommend a financial advisor with fees like that until someone is actually wealthy. For example, I probably know more than at least 90% of the population about finance, but with that knowledge comes me knowing what I don’t know. For example, if I came into 5 or 50 million, I would absolutely not manage it myself.
What I’m saying is there’s no point in reinventing the wheel. Others far smarter, with massive resources have already come up with plans. I use glide paths with set ratios of asset classes. In other words, index investing. Can I come up with something better on my own? I doubt it considering the resources that went into creating these plans. Why bother trying? I’ll stay in my CPA professional niche in my niche of services and do well at that. I’ll leave this niche to people who know it far better that I can or even want to understand glide my portfolio to financial independence.
Mathjak is great about posting different plans for different goals and different times in life. I’m saying, I believe in selecting those plans. My own plan would be garbage in comparison no matter how much I know. Then you take this to the extreme to the average person in the population with no education in finance? They should definitely not be making any decisions since they can’t even manage their cashflow let alone an investment path.
Last edited by Thatsright19; 04-23-2020 at 08:53 AM..
and my reply was simple answers to complex questions are usually going to be the wrong answers or not the best choices.. there is nothing simple about not losing money ... don't confuse a 40 year bull market in bonds with the fact people can lose a lot of money picking the wrong fund at the wrong time when conditions change .
That's fine MathJak and you have a right to express your opinion, but I think you should express your beef with:
- The teachings and legacy of Jack Bogle
- The entire Bogleheads group
- Rick Ferri
- J.L. Collins
They all focus on simple approaches to this stuff, not overly complex technical studying, holding 8 to 10 Bond Funds, holding 5 to 10 Stock Funds, reading/reading/reading/reading about this all day, etc. etc.
Again, no more than 2 or 3 Funds. That's it and move on with your life.
You may have only actually moved the money on that Tuesday, but you definitely talked your way in each direction and said you would move it versus not move it several times.
So what? There are prominent guys that sell books, seminars, speeches, etc., that used to time the market all the time and it took a lot longer for them to learn their lesson. J.L. Collins is a perfect example. So should we write off anything else that J.L. Collins has to say as a result?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Thatsright19
Investing isn’t speculating or gambling. And speculating isn’t gambling either. Again, the terms have very key differences, and they don’t operate anywhere near the same. For example, gambling is a zero sum game and has expected values, even speculating has neither of those. So none of them are the same. Anyone who says there the same, doesn’t actually understand the differences between them.
Investing in individual stocks and GOLD = speculation
Holding broad based core equity and bond index funds = investing in America
Quote:
Originally Posted by Thatsright19
I don’t recommend a financial advisor with fees like that until someone is actually wealthy. For example, I probably know more than at least 90% of the population about finance, but with that knowledge comes me knowing what I don’t know. For example, if I came into 5 or 50 million, I would absolutely not manage it myself.
Oh okay. Well, it's your money. I don't think people need a Financial Advisor if they are just buying an Index. What exactly is The Financial Advisor for in that regard? I'll await your response.......
Quote:
Originally Posted by Thatsright19
What I’m saying is there’s no point in reinventing the wheel. Others far smarter, with massive resources have already come up with plans. I use glide paths with set ratios of asset classes. In other words, index investing. Can I come up with something better on my own? I doubt it considering the resources that went into creating these plans.
So here you are again recommending Indexing, but above you are recommending a Financial Advisor. Why do you need a Financial Advisor for Indexing? Again, I'll await your response......
So what? There are prominent guys that sell books, seminars, speeches, etc., that used to time the market all the time and it took a lot longer for them to learn their lesson. J.L. Collins is a perfect example. So should we write off anything else that J.L. Collins has to say as a result?
Investing in individual stocks and GOLD = speculation
Holding broad based core equity and bond index funds = investing in America
Oh okay. Well, it's your money. I don't think people need a Financial Advisor if they are just buying an Index. What exactly is The Financial Advisor for in that regard? I'll await your response.......
So here you are again recommending Indexing, but above you are recommending a Financial Advisor. Why do you need a Financial Advisor for Indexing? Again, I'll await your response......
Have you learned your lesson though? Under adversity you cracked. You’re not under adversity now, so whose to say you won’t crack again in 12 years if you lose 40%? I don’t know how you’ll react when you’re actually losing money other than the time I’ve seen you on here. And you exhibited the definition of poor investor behavior.
I know what the difference between investing and speculating is. You were saying speculating is gambling and it absolutely is not gambling.
I think I already answered your last point. Indexing is my recommended plan to build wealth. If I already have wealth, I’d rely on financial advisors because that’s the full suite of concerns not just investing concerns. Tax planning, estate planning, shifting funds to other people, ect.
If I’m building, I don’t need those extra costs. I simply don’t think they will provide enough value to my money to justify their cost. If I have the golden goose, I would pay the fees that are now more supportable in a more complicated “operation” and I actually have the need to where I think they would drive real value.
Last edited by Thatsright19; 04-23-2020 at 09:06 AM..
That's fine MathJak and you have a right to express your opinion, but I think you should express your beef with:
- The teachings and legacy of Jack Bogle
- The entire Bogleheads group
- Rick Ferri
- J.L. Collins
They all focus on simple approaches to this stuff, not overly complex technical studying, holding 8 to 10 Bond Funds, holding 5 to 10 Stock Funds, reading/reading/reading/reading about this all day, etc. etc.
Again, no more than 2 or 3 Funds. That's it and move on with your life.
jack bogle was a brilliant marketer ... less so a researcher and predictor.. they grew an empire selling do it yourself investing ... which they now produced a study on that says many small investors are getting poor results for all sorts of reasons doing it themselves and they can see as much as 3% more by letting a pro handle their money and keep them away from it.
there has not been a bear market in bonds for the last 40 years other then some bumps in the road ... the few we did have had bond investors freaking out here from their losses . wait and see what happens when the trend reverses or liquidity tightens up .... oh wait we just did when total bond funds took a dive a few weeks ago .....
you want to think it is just buy a total bond fund and you are set forever , go ahead ....like you learned about stocks eventually you will learn about bonds and holding the wrong fund at the wrong time
Last edited by mathjak107; 04-23-2020 at 09:07 AM..
OP, the simplest way to retire is you hire Yippeekayay Fund Management Corp.
They strive to beat, er, bamboozle the market year in year out that makes Warren Buffet, Peter Lynch, George Soros, Ray Dalio blush with envy.
Here is the average 3 year of all its client accounts vs S&P the past 3 years.
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. Everytime someone challenges you or disagrees with you, you snap. Are you used to this forum being an echo cin his studies .hamber? Nobody has to agree with anything you say on here. I for the record agree with you on some things and then other things I don't, because you don't seem to keep a consistent message over a long period of time. One minute you are timing the market, the next minute you are saying one can't time the market. You speculate on stocks and gold, while at the same time you preach Indexing. You gotta calm down man. 
. 
. I was frazzled and drinking (still been drinking lol) but I was not making full allocation changes multiple times a day. The Thread is up for you to go back and review. I was trying to time the market. I thought (really really thought) I could get away with it this time. The Thread is up, I literally was out of the market for a few trading hours on Tuesday, March 24th. I came to my senses quick (real quick) that I just don't have enough information, data, access, etc. to effectively "time" this stuff so I jumped back in through an S&P 500 Index ETF (I was in an S&P 500 Index Fund prior). 
