[tony soprano]

Originally Posted by jbov

I don't want to get into a technical discussion of what constitutes a bottom and what is the proper metric or time frame to use. I doubt the people who bought a house at your 2008 "bottom" feel like they timed the market perfectly.

Exactly. I'd like to see what they think about his revisionist tap dancing.

[olecapt]

Originally Posted by tony soprano

Rubbish. You've supplied nothing of the sort. I on the other hand hang you with links to your own failed projections. Anyone who thinks that April of 2009 was the bottom for Las Vegas housing prices is delusional. The numbers don't lie, but you do.More rubbish. The Case Shiller index tracks average price change, not average price. I've had to explain that to you before. This thread has always used median housing prices as the benchmark. Fact - the median housing price fell another 12% from your last failed bottom call.

Two articles, both published today, discussing the newest GLVAR numbers. Both cite median housing price, neither mention average. Like I said before, if the data proves you wrong, look for other data.

Las Vegas Sun

Home sales show slight rebound in February - Business - ReviewJournal.com

No one's buying your snake oil.

You remain firmly rooted in your delusions.

The CS index is a surrogate for home price. It is normalized to 1/1/2000 as the base. Not home price change. You are getting closer though. Last time out you insisted it was a median. So apparently you have gotten closer to reality.

It is often plotted as a yoy differential. But that does not change what it is.

How can you work so hard at this stuff and understand it so little?

[olecapt]

Originally Posted by jbov

Olecapt! Buddy!

Why are you throwing me under the bus? I was defending you... saying it is okay to make wrong predictions.

I don't want to get into a technical discussion of what constitutes a bottom and what is the proper metric or time frame to use. I doubt the people who bought a house at your 2008 "bottom" feel like they timed the market perfectly.

The Las Vegas Sun just ran an article stating that housing prices are the lowest they have been in 20 years.

I guess this is a new bottom. I am calling it right now**

**bottom calls only valid for 6 month periods

You appear to be understudying Tony. Don't That requires a combination of a malicious personality and an ability to ignore reality. Even if you can do it you should not.

And no housing prices are not as low as they have been in 20 years. Some housing prices are as low as they have been ever. Others are lower than they were 10 years ago. Others are still well above their value of 10 years ago.

It is safe to say that virtually everything in the valley is worth less than it was in 2006/2007. Other than that you need to be specific.

If you bought a fresh condo conversion in 2006 you have likely lost 70% of the price you paid. If you bought a nice large home in Sun City Summerlin in 2006 you are probably down 25%.

I called the bottom quite publically in late spring of 2009. And it was. The price decrease dropped dramatically from over a percent per month to nothing.

The people who bought at that time are doing OK. They can't get out without taking a loss as the cost of selling are significant. Then again they sit where they bought or very close. That is simply the nature of the beast.

We closed a house last week representing the seller for $310K. The sellers bought it with our representation in Nov of 2008 for $320K. It sold in 14 days. We discussed it well and they knew they could likely have gotten $325K or maybe a little more...but it would have taken some time. They wanted their money out quickly and got it. The message however is that the value of that house dropped something less than 3.5% in the last two years. And actually could have broken even if they wished to take the time.

[tony soprano]

Originally Posted by olecapt

You remain firmly rooted in your delusions.

The CS index is a surrogate for home price. It is normalized to 1/1/2000 as the base. Not home price change. You are getting closer though. Last time out you insisted it was a median. So apparently you have gotten closer to reality.

It is often plotted as a yoy differential. But that does not change what it is.

How can you work so hard at this stuff and understand it so little?

Once again I find myself having to explain the Case-Shiller index to you. It is not a surrogate for home price, it tracks price change. Your incompetence is in full bloom today.

Directly from the company that owns the indices-

Fiserv® Case-Shiller Indexes® measure the average change in home prices in a particular geographic market, covering more than 3,000 zip codes, 300 countries and 100 metropolitan areas.

Case Shiller Indexes: About

It's abundantly clear to me why you never have more than a couple of active listings at any given time.

[jfkIII]

jbov not only has a way with the women...but also with RE agents! Now...if you're a woman RE agent....WATCH OUT!

[olecapt]

Originally Posted by tony soprano

Once again I find myself having to explain the Case-Shiller index to you. It is not a surrogate for home price, it tracks price change. Your incompetence is in full bloom today.

Directly from the company that owns the indices-
It's abundantly clear to me why you never have more than a couple of active listings at any given time.

N Y Times...

The Case-Shiller home price index, compiled by Standard & Poor's and usually referred to as the S.&P./Case-Shiller index, tracks the value of residential real estate in 20 metropolitan regions across the United States.

The methodology, developed by Karl E. Case, an economics professor at Wellesley College, and Robert J. Shiller,an economics professor at Yale, collects data monthly on sales of existing single-family houses. The index is published on the last Tuesday of each month, with a two-month lag.

The index is a surrogate for price. It is calculated by a difference technique. But the index is to price. Basically if you multiply the index by the price on January 1, 2000 you get the current price.

How is it that you cannot understand such simple basic stuff?

[tony soprano]

Originally Posted by olecapt

N Y Times...



The index is a surrogate for price. It is calculated by a difference technique. But the index is to price. Basically if you multiply the index by the price on January 1, 2000 you get the current price.

How is it that you cannot understand such simple basic stuff?

Apparently the NYT is as confused as you are. I'll stick with the company that actually owns the indices as opposed to a delusional realtor.

[JohnG72]

Originally Posted by olecapt

You appear to be understudying Tony. Don't That requires a combination of a malicious personality and an ability to ignore reality. Even if you can do it you should not.

And no housing prices are not as low as they have been in 20 years. Some housing prices are as low as they have been ever. Others are lower than they were 10 years ago. Others are still well above their value of 10 years ago.

It is safe to say that virtually everything in the valley is worth less than it was in 2006/2007. Other than that you need to be specific.

If you bought a fresh condo conversion in 2006 you have likely lost 70% of the price you paid. If you bought a nice large home in Sun City Summerlin in 2006 you are probably down 25%.

I called the bottom quite publically in late spring of 2009. And it was. The price decrease dropped dramatically from over a percent per month to nothing.

The people who bought at that time are doing OK. They can't get out without taking a loss as the cost of selling are significant. Then again they sit where they bought or very close. That is simply the nature of the beast.

We closed a house last week representing the seller for $310K. The sellers bought it with our representation in Nov of 2008 for $320K. It sold in 14 days. We discussed it well and they knew they could likely have gotten $325K or maybe a little more...but it would have taken some time. They wanted their money out quickly and got it. The message however is that the value of that house dropped something less than 3.5% in the last two years. And actually could have broken even if they wished to take the time.

Seriously WTH?

Again you bring up an anecdotal story that has nothing to do with the post you were responding to. The poster was making the point that you may have not correctly called the bottom, but thats ok with the poster cause he doesn't expect anyone to have future reading abilities.

You respond with a post explaining why your prognosticating abilities just don't result much in the way of negative things happening(why your wrong on this is a whole nother post). You don't address the post you quoted even one bit.

I'm actually thinking your senile or something. Maybe time to lay down the realtors license and go play some keno or something.

[olecapt]

Originally Posted by JohnG72

Seriously WTH?

Again you bring up an anecdotal story that has nothing to do with the post you were responding to. The poster was making the point that you may have not correctly called the bottom, but thats ok with the poster cause he doesn't expect anyone to have future reading abilities.

You respond with a post explaining why your prognosticating abilities just don't result much in the way of negative things happening(why your wrong on this is a whole nother post). You don't address the post you quoted even one bit.

I'm actually thinking your senile or something. Maybe time to lay down the realtors license and go play some keno or something.

The hard data that the bottom was hit was long since posted. Why would we go back over that?

The anecdote was simply one demo that the bottom was reached.

I would suspect that you think all those smarter than you are senile.

Helps you maintain self worth with nothing to work with.

[tony soprano]

Originally Posted by JohnG72

I'm actually thinking your senile or something. Maybe time to lay down the realtors license and go play some keno or something.

For all intents and purposes he has. In the time that I've been on this forum, he's never had more than a few listings. If you take a look at realtor.com, he has 1 SFR listing and a condo that's been on the MLS for almost two years.