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You're may not buy that old house for 3 times what they paid for it, but everyone else will.
Now, today "everyone else" will have to be able to qualify for a loan, a jumbo loan in some case for LI. That pool of "everyone else" is shrinking by the second and that percent of "everyone else" is not that big considering the median household income for LI is ~$93K.
Without the creative loans of the housing market past, there are few "everyone elses" looking at the same price range and homes that I am.
mls#1964220
45 Nichols Rd, Nesconset, NY
-18.2% change from first recorded price
Asking Price $400k as of 12/21/2007
Asking Price $410k as of 10/20/2007
Asking Price $489k as of 07/10/2007
mls#1977143
30 Shenandoah Blvd, Nesconset, NY
-14.9% change from first recorded price
Asking Price $565k as of 02/27/2008
Asking Price $575k as of 01/09/2008
Asking Price $585k as of 11/30/2007
Asking Price $600k as of 08/20/2007
Asking Price $664k as of 07/10/2007
Previously Sold in 1991 for $148k
mls#1927089
19 Diane Ct, Nesconset, NY
-6.01% change from first recorded price
Asking Price $469k as of 01/15/2008
Asking Price $489k as of 08/18/2007
Asking Price $499k as of 07/15/2007
381 days on the market or 1.04 years!
mls#1980727
276 Southern Blvd, Nesconset, NY
-10.9% change from first recorded price
Asking Price $399k as of 03/13/2008
Asking Price $405k as of 11/03/2007
Asking Price $419k as of 10/02/2007
Asking Price $430k as of 08/18/2007
Asking Price $448k as of 07/16/2007
Previously Sold in 2001 for $230k
mls#1981048
1 Sun Hill Rd, Nesconset, NY
-5.36% change from first recorded price
Asking Price $424k as of 02/08/2008
Asking Price $448k as of 07/17/2007
Previously Sold in 1991 for $175k
241 days on the market
mls#1989565
501 Browns Rd, Nesconset, NY
Asking Price $449k as of 08/09/2007
Previously Sold in 2001 for $195k
218 days on the market
mls#1990234
3 Oak St, Nesconset, NY
-5.46% change from first recorded price
Asking Price $519k as of 03/11/2008
Asking Price $549k as of 08/20/2007
Previously Sold in 2000 for $242k
216 days on the market
mls#1923409
37 White Cliff Ln, Nesconset, NY
-6.8% change from first recorded price
Asking Price $699k as of 01/10/2008
Asking Price $750k as of 09/05/2007
Previously Sold in 1999 for $124k
394 days on the market or 1.08 years!
mls#2000823
4 Heritage Pl, Nesconset, NY
-16.5% change from first recorded price
Asking Price $400k as of 03/06/2008
Asking Price $430k as of 10/26/2007
Asking Price $450k as of 09/18/2007
Asking Price $479k as of 09/12/2007
Previously Sold in 1996 for $143k
mls#2001813
24 Burnham Pl, Nesconset, NY
-12.7% change from first recorded price
Asking Price $575k as of 03/05/2008
Asking Price $599k as of 01/07/2008
Asking Price $619k as of 12/13/2007
Asking Price $637k as of 11/30/2007
Asking Price $649k as of 10/07/2007
Asking Price $659k as of 09/23/2007
Previously Sold in 1997 for $79k
Taking the focus off the numbers and turning the discussion into a personal assault on where you guys live doesn't fly with me. Didn't work. It's not about the beaches, your roots, your "home". It's about math, logic, and common sense sans emotion.
Let me be very clear about my point. There are pockets of good housing, but it is grossly over priced right now. There are pockets of housing that are indeed equivalent to squalor. I do absolutely believe that there is denial about the LI housing situation and I do believe many people were duped into buying dumps for a half million or more and that as citizens of LI you should be doing more about your local governments and your taxes. Government by the people and for the people That only works if the people don't sit on their butts and let only a few have the power of being decision makers.
If you've been on LI your whole life and bought your house years ago, I don't think you're a fool. If you're sitting in that house thinking it's doubled, tripled, or quadrupled in value since you purchased it 10, 15 years ago, THEN I'd say you're a fool. I'm not going to buy your old house for three times what you paid for it - alleged improvements or not.
LI is not NYC. That association keeps coming up over and over and I do believe that's an attempt to justify the housing prices and taxes -- gotta tell you, it's not a good reason IMO. If I can see thru the BS, ya know other people can too.
The median family can't afford to buy the lowest of the low homes on LI. That isn't okay. It's not right and it won't stay that way because it can't. The market indeed will bring further correction to LI.
I'm not an accountant, I'm not a real estate anything, but if I can see it and figure it out, you know there are lots of other people who can too. It's not that complicated.
This new economy is going to foster a new consumer. Money will be tight, money will be hard to borrow. Consumers are going to look at every detail. Does LI have positives to offer? I'm sure it does as does every community out there. The question that will be asked is HOW MUCH IS IT REALLY WORTH? That is the question I am asking.
Whatever positives LI does have, the quality of life dictated by the housing on LI tends to overshadow that good stuff. There aren't enough postives to out run the poor quality and over priced housing with hi property taxes -- another example where balance is lacking on LI.
The point isn't how crappy is LI and that's where some of you keep trying to take this discussion. Guess I hit a nerve and interesting how some of you have hyper-focused and locked on to that.
Again, the question is how much is it really worth. If all LI had to offer were 50 year old hi-ranches but they were priced like they should be at $90 to $100K, I would not have made this post. Because THAT scenario would have made sense. The value ratios would not have struck me as totally and completely out of balance and insane.
LI never got labeled with the word "bubble". It really should have. The houses we looked at this week are sellers who are moving off LI. I do feel like these people are looking for suckers to buy at the current prices so they can take whatever money they can get and escape monkey island.
None of the houses have a backstory that goes the sellers really don't want to leave, but they have to. The stories are all the same. They're relocating south.
Some time has passed since my first post. I could live on LI. There are several reasons why I'd actually like to. After the housing debacle, asking questions about REAL VALUE is what real estate is NOW about. LI has a ways to go in the way of serious pricing corrections before it can offer REAL VALUE for its properties -- the crappy, the not so crappy, the nice, and the really nice properties -- all of them. Real value that is easy to see, asses and understand. Not emotional value or lame attempts of value by association to NYC.
Your arrogance is incredible. You are trashing a place based on numbers alone. You don't live here, you have spent no time here, but you know all about life on LI.
You ignore a basic tenet of the law of supply and demand. LI is a desirable place to live, with a finite supply of housing. If it wasn't, prices would be as low as they are in Ohio.
As I've said before, if you don't like what you see, don't move here. And don't trash those of us who choose to live here.
As far as knowledge of the area's history, geography, and how LI came to be -- I don't care. That is all emotional value. You have emotional value for LI. I don't
Those all play significantly into why parts of LI are higher priced than others. This isn't emotional value, this is what makes LI the place it has become.
Quote:
I'm looking at the hard numbers trying to decide if my investment is going to tank 22% as soon as the ink dries. If we buy this year. It probably will.
Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose. Nothing in life is a given, but death and taxes. Buying a house, buying a stock, playing the lottery -- you are taking a chance. Sad to say the timing of your transfer isn't coinciding with the market reaching bottom. Markets are going down all over; it's not specific to the LI region. Why not rent for a while to let the markets cool and familiarize yourself with the area more?
Quote:
Why in the world would I travel the full length of LI in search of a suitable home? If there is a point to be had in that statement, it escapes me. Like most normal people, we need to be close to work. We didn't look at the ENTIRE island of LI because of the limited radius to work. What's in Sea Cliff isn't relevant to this discussion, neither is 19th century farmhouses, or painted ladies, etc. Neither is the area of Great Neck. In fact, finding relevance in your post is kind of tough, but I'll try.
Had any of our great explorers or scientists taken your myopic view, we would all still be living in Europe, dying of the plague believing that the earth was flat. In your haste to dismiss YOUR FUTURE HOME LI (face the reality) you have forgotten one thing -- to learn what else is out there. Didn't they teach you to think outside the box during your training in your architectural training?
Why not rent for 6 months - year while waiting for the market to adjust and learn what areas you appeal to you as opposed to going in sort of cold from Ohio?
Your so-called 'normal people' do not shackle themselves within a prescribed distance in the name of a commute. There are people who work on Wall St in my community who don't mind the distance and live here for the amenities -- schools, boating, small town, older homes, sylvan feel. They have a long train ride but wouldn't trade where they live for a short commute. Other Wall St people find Huntington far enough and my town too distant. There are folks in Rockville Centre who believe that they are far enough from NYC.
Quote:
Again, I didn't see any 19th century farmhouses, painted ladies nor older homes worth cherishing when I was there -- not by a long shot. Did you miss the original budget of $350K-$400K and the area 20-30 minutes from 485/110? We weren't/aren't looking for 19th century farmhouses, painted ladies, or cherished older homes.
I realize that your budget, along with your desired commute, is going to dictate where you can or can't live. Head north toward Huntington, a little east toward Northport Village (might be doable timewise) and you'll see older homes -- the charming type. Knowing that this isn't what you want, tell me what you do want? How many sq ft? Style?
Quote:
I was clear that I was speaking to the areas that I had visited and named them specifically and I was clear about my confusion and dismay about the very specific issues of overpriced housing and out of control taxes.
Again, I'm looking in Suffolk. The proximity to NYC is not close. No one ever did address if people really do travel 1.5 to 2 hours into the city for work FROM SUFFOLK. I don't know. Do they? I know from Nassau county traveling into the city is common.
Yes, you were clear, but your budget is the killer. Yes, prices seem high, especially in comparison with another region, but we all know the saying -- supply and demand. LI is limited in space and close to NYC. Like elsewhere in the tristate area, people are willing to pay more for that proximity. Taxes here are nuts, none of us are going to argue about that.
Yes, people do make the commute from eastern LI to NYC. I know of people in Manorville, Riverhead, Remsenberg who all commute to NYC daily.
Remember that our geography comes into play here. We are limited in our movement north and south as the Island is narrow. That means most of our movement is east to west -- driving or taking the train into the city, for example. Look at it this way; people who are working on or around the 110 corridor have a much easier commute. This is a positive. Is your husband a 9-5er or are his hours a little more flexible?
If he can drive in off peak, you can look a little further east.
Quote:
I'm looking at a housing market of today, I'm not sure that you are. LI not having room to grow is another attempt at justifying value that does not exist, or perhaps I should say does not exist any more. Maybe it did mean something at one time. Inventory of homes in various price ranges has never struck me as an issue for LI since beginning my search. I don't feel as if I have to hurry up and find something before it's snatched up. There doesn't seem to be a shortage of houses or land, seems to be a glut. A glut of homes to the tune that it will take 16 months to move thru the current inventory on LI. Can't remember where I got that piece of data, but if you'd like me to link the source, I'll try to find it for you.
There is a shortage of land, so much so that people are buying houses at a premium in order to knock them down to build what they want. Live here a while and you will see. A person paid $404K in my area to knock down a house and spent almost $700K building a new one. That's $1.1 mil into it before turning the key and moving in.
The crazy part is that this scenario is becoming increasingly more common.
Have you priced a piece of land in your searches? If not, please don't tell LIers what land out here isn't worth to you. None of us are trying to justify our local markets, as this is what they are.
Houses that have been on the market any length of time weren't properly priced to begin with. Owners have egos to feed and think their home is worth every penny plus. Some of them received bad advice from agents (not all agents are bad) and some of them did not heed their agent's advice to price appropriately within their market. People think they can still get the big KACHING from the boom years.
Quote:
I'm not comparing LI to Ohio or anywhere else in the midwest. That would be pointless.
Yes it would be. After all, you yourself have written that people leaving LI are heading south and not to Ohio. I wonder why?
Quote:
I was very clear that I was looking at data for LI specifically. It doesn't add up. The housing is out of balance and out of whack. Not by a little, by a lot and the bulk of it seemed to happen during the bubble period. One would have to be a complete idiot not to do proper due diligence after what happened and is happening in the housing market. LI will not escape the correction, it's just taking a little longer to get there.
You are correct to research thoroughly; had the people who are fleeing done the same homework, had they not gone blindly into the subprime mortgage market, we wouldn't see half of what we are seeing today.
Quote:
I haven't gotten back to look at the specific areas of St. James, Nesconset, and more of Smithtown so I don't know. It looks and sounds promising. I'm skeptical. They may be too far for our needs. I'll have to go take a look.
Did you check out Kings Park? It might be doable (west of Smithtown), it's reasonably priced, the schools are good. St James might be too far, but if the commute is during off hours, you would be in luck in Smithtown and Nesconset. I live just east of St James north of 25A and for me, 30 mins just to 110 is about right off peak, never mind traveling down 110 to an office.
-----------------------------------
Please answer me truthfully, you really don't want to move here, do you? I'm not asking you this as a wisearse, but as someone who wants to be sympathetic to another person who loves where she lives and possibly resents having to uproot her family.
LI will never be your beloved Ohio, we respect that. Please do us a favor and understand that this is a place that many of us love as dearly as you love Ohio; understand that we are almost constantly berated by others for the lifestyle choice we have made. It gets tiresome and yes, it puts some of us on the defensive. Many of us are making fine money and don't have a problem living here and paying what might be construed as a premium to do so.
Locally, I have had the pleasure of meeting and making friends who have moved here from around the country and around the world. There are aspects of their old hometowns which they miss, and attributes in their new hometown that they now love. I hope that someday when you settle in here, that you grow to love some of the things that we love here, too.
Those all play significantly into why parts of LI are higher priced than others. This isn't emotional value, this is what makes LI the place it has become.
Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose. Nothing in life is a given, but death and taxes. Buying a house, buying a stock, playing the lottery -- you are taking a chance. Sad to say the timing of your transfer isn't coinciding with the market reaching bottom. Markets are going down all over; it's not specific to the LI region. Why not rent for a while to let the markets cool and familiarize yourself with the area more?
Had any of our great explorers or scientists taken your myopic view, we would all still be living in Europe, dying of the plague believing that the earth was flat. In your haste to dismiss YOUR FUTURE HOME LI (face the reality) you have forgotten one thing -- to learn what else is out there. Didn't they teach you to think outside the box during your training in your architectural training?
Why not rent for 6 months - year while waiting for the market to adjust and learn what areas you appeal to you as opposed to going in sort of cold from Ohio?
Your so-called 'normal people' do not shackle themselves within a prescribed distance in the name of a commute. There are people who work on Wall St in my community who don't mind the distance and live here for the amenities -- schools, boating, small town, older homes, sylvan feel. They have a long train ride but wouldn't trade where they live for a short commute. Other Wall St people find Huntington far enough and my town too distant. There are folks in Rockville Centre who believe that they are far enough from NYC.
I realize that your budget, along with your desired commute, is going to dictate where you can or can't live. Head north toward Huntington, a little east toward Northport Village (might be doable timewise) and you'll see older homes -- the charming type. Knowing that this isn't what you want, tell me what you do want? How many sq ft? Style?
Yes, you were clear, but your budget is the killer. Yes, prices seem high, especially in comparison with another region, but we all know the saying -- supply and demand. LI is limited in space and close to NYC. Like elsewhere in the tristate area, people are willing to pay more for that proximity. Taxes here are nuts, none of us are going to argue about that.
Yes, people do make the commute from eastern LI to NYC. I know of people in Manorville, Riverhead, Remsenberg who all commute to NYC daily.
Remember that our geography comes into play here. We are limited in our movement north and south as the Island is narrow. That means most of our movement is east to west -- driving or taking the train into the city, for example. Look at it this way; people who are working on or around the 110 corridor have a much easier commute. This is a positive. Is your husband a 9-5er or are his hours a little more flexible?
If he can drive in off peak, you can look a little further east.
There is a shortage of land, so much so that people are buying houses at a premium in order to knock them down to build what they want. Live here a while and you will see. A person paid $404K in my area to knock down a house and spent almost $700K building a new one. That's $1.1 mil into it before turning the key and moving in.
The crazy part is that this scenario is becoming increasingly more common.
Have you priced a piece of land in your searches? If not, please don't tell LIers what land out here isn't worth to you. None of us are trying to justify our local markets, as this is what they are.
Houses that have been on the market any length of time weren't properly priced to begin with. Owners have egos to feed and think their home is worth every penny plus. Some of them received bad advice from agents (not all agents are bad) and some of them did not heed their agent's advice to price appropriately within their market. People think they can still get the big KACHING from the boom years.
Yes it would be. After all, you yourself have written that people leaving LI are heading south and not to Ohio. I wonder why?
You are correct to research thoroughly; had the people who are fleeing done the same homework, had they not gone blindly into the subprime mortgage market, we wouldn't see half of what we are seeing today.
Did you check out Kings Park? It might be doable (west of Smithtown), it's reasonably priced, the schools are good. St James might be too far, but if the commute is during off hours, you would be in luck in Smithtown and Nesconset. I live just east of St James north of 25A and for me, 30 mins just to 110 is about right off peak, never mind traveling down 110 to an office.
-----------------------------------
Please answer me truthfully, you really don't want to move here, do you? I'm not asking you this as a wisearse, but as someone who wants to be sympathetic to another person who loves where she lives and possibly resents having to uproot her family.
LI will never be your beloved Ohio, we respect that. Please do us a favor and understand that this is a place that many of us love as dearly as you love Ohio; understand that we are almost constantly berated by others for the lifestyle choice we have made. It gets tiresome and yes, it puts some of us on the defensive. Many of us are making fine money and don't have a problem living here and paying what might be construed as a premium to do so.
Locally, I have had the pleasure of meeting and making friends who have moved here from around the country and around the world. There are aspects of their old hometowns which they miss, and attributes in their new hometown that they now love. I hope that someday when you settle in here, that you grow to love some of the things that we love here, too.
An eloquent and excellent post. You have incredible patience in responding point by point. However, I think your efforts may be wasted. I don't think that she is interested in a discussion or is seeking information about Long Island. It seems that the only interest here is in ranting and raving about something that she has little knowledge of or experience with.
I think the best bet for you is not to buy here initially. Please rent, get to know the people, the place, the attractions, the schools, and what we have to offer. It is so hard to know all about an area after only visiting here a few times.
Also, its best not to bash the people that to see the positive sides of living here. Yes, there are negatives also, but in my opinion, the positives far outweigh the negatives.
mls#1964220
45 Nichols Rd, Nesconset, NY
-18.2% change from first recorded price
Asking Price $400k as of 12/21/2007
Asking Price $410k as of 10/20/2007
Asking Price $489k as of 07/10/2007
Overpriced; poor location on a VERY BUSY street.
Quote:
mls#1977143
30 Shenandoah Blvd, Nesconset, NY
-14.9% change from first recorded price
Asking Price $565k as of 02/27/2008
Asking Price $575k as of 01/09/2008
Asking Price $585k as of 11/30/2007
Asking Price $600k as of 08/20/2007
Asking Price $664k as of 07/10/2007
Previously Sold in 1991 for $148k
Overpriced, poor location:cut through from Nichols to Browns
Quote:
mls#1927089
19 Diane Ct, Nesconset, NY
-6.01% change from first recorded price
Asking Price $469k as of 01/15/2008
Asking Price $489k as of 08/18/2007
Asking Price $499k as of 07/15/2007
381 days on the market or 1.04 years!
Poor location, just off of Southern, very close to 347
Quote:
mls#1980727
276 Southern Blvd, Nesconset, NY
-10.9% change from first recorded price
Asking Price $399k as of 03/13/2008
Asking Price $405k as of 11/03/2007
Asking Price $419k as of 10/02/2007
Asking Price $430k as of 08/18/2007
Asking Price $448k as of 07/16/2007
Previously Sold in 2001 for $230k
Poor location, busy road
Quote:
mls#1981048
1 Sun Hill Rd, Nesconset, NY
-5.36% change from first recorded price
Asking Price $424k as of 02/08/2008
Asking Price $448k as of 07/17/2007
Previously Sold in 1991 for $175k
241 days on the market
It's on the Corner of VERY BUSY Townline Road -- these people are smoking crack!
Quote:
mls#1989565
501 Browns Rd, Nesconset, NY
Asking Price $449k as of 08/09/2007
Previously Sold in 2001 for $195k
218 days on the market
Poor location, another very busy road
Quote:
mls#1990234
3 Oak St, Nesconset, NY
-5.46% change from first recorded price
Asking Price $519k as of 03/11/2008
Asking Price $549k as of 08/20/2007
Previously Sold in 2000 for $242k
216 days on the market
I would be curious to know what's wrong with this one. It appears to be on a dead end, not a busy road.
Quote:
mls#1923409
37 White Cliff Ln, Nesconset, NY
-6.8% change from first recorded price
Asking Price $699k as of 01/10/2008
Asking Price $750k as of 09/05/2007
Previously Sold in 1999 for $124k
394 days on the market or 1.08 years!
This backs busy Moriches Road. Way overpriced.
Quote:
mls#2000823
4 Heritage Pl, Nesconset, NY
-16.5% change from first recorded price
Asking Price $400k as of 03/06/2008
Asking Price $430k as of 10/26/2007
Asking Price $450k as of 09/18/2007
Asking Price $479k as of 09/12/2007
Previously Sold in 1996 for $143k
Just off of a busy road - Lake Ave South
Quote:
mls#2001813
24 Burnham Pl, Nesconset, NY
-12.7% change from first recorded price
Asking Price $575k as of 03/05/2008
Asking Price $599k as of 01/07/2008
Asking Price $619k as of 12/13/2007
Asking Price $637k as of 11/30/2007
Asking Price $649k as of 10/07/2007
Asking Price $659k as of 09/23/2007
Previously Sold in 1997 for $79k
I have only been on two shopping trips. After the first, I thought that I simply wasn't being shown the right areas. Second time around, different areas, but more of the same. Melville, Dix Hills, Kings Park, Commack, Smithtown, Happague, Bethpage, Amityville, Massapequa, Lake Grove. Anything farther east isn't a realistic commute for DH. $600K is simply the top of our range. Here, at home, that would net an incredibly gorgeous home in a fabulously developed, landscaped neighborhood. Taxes aren't exactly cheap, I'm well over $6K now. It's not perfect, but I don't feel like I'm being robbed and taken advantage of by my local government.
I can not be more sincere in my desire to understand and find some corner of LI that I feel good about moving my family to. I sat on the plane and cried the whole way home. I'm sure people thought I was nuts. I held it together after the first shopping trip, but this last one was just too much.
My DH feels horrid that he's accepted this transfer and he can't undo it. Working the job virtually and traveling in is an option we are going to explore. We just can't see doing this to our kids. I could suck it up and live in a home that I feel is way below our standards, but taking my kids into that kind of impoverished environment and paying top dollar for it makes me sick to my stomach.
They were absolutely shell-shocked. Probably my own fault, but they've never seen places like this. My youngest asked if everyone on LI was poor and if we were going to be poor now too. The RE rep laughed and made some stupid joke about the taxes then pulled up to a bagel shop which happened to be right next door to an Adult bookstore/shop complete with a full window display of "attire". Yeah, that helped.
I am hoping that there is something I'm missing here. Why is $700K a gross mis-representation? Yes, shools are important, but you want to know how many great school districts there are in the US? A lot. Long Island by no means has the market cornered on quality schools. "Quality Schools" seems that's just another lame attempt at trying to justify and smooth over the major flaws of LI. Plus, it's not like ALL the schools on LI are "quality". There are some major school district issues that we've been warned to seriously avoid at all costs.
Funny I think I was at that bagel shop the other day, accross from the Huntingtion mall by Melville? I have to admit, that west side of the street is UGLY! I can see where you are coming from but that is NOT typical LI. They should clean up the strip stores over there...
Funny I think I was at that bagel shop the other day, accross from the Huntingtion mall by Melville? I have to admit, that west side of the street is UGLY! I can see where you are coming from but that is NOT typical LI. They should clean up the strip stores over there...
That is certainly NOT an attractive spot (which is a sin as Walt Whitman's home is tucked in back there) by any means.
Check this development out. I loved it, gated community...gorgeous. Just right by the Smithhaven mall so it's a busy area. But man, tour some of the homes and they are gorgeous (and extremely pricey!).
The house a really nice but what a poor location. And I could never figure out whey they took all the trees down just to plant a new barrier agains the busy roads. Too much money IMO.
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Inventories are rising - Prices are being Slashed
