LI Elections 2009 (Oyster Bay, Smithtown, Rockville Centre: how much, gated, costs)

[Smash255]

I know the mods prefer to have the political discussion relegated to the Political Boards, but since this is locally based instead of national based and the LI political boards that are around are horrid, I hope its ok to have a thread here since Election Day is less than 3 weeks away.

I'm just going to list a few of the major and key Nassau races (anyone want to do the same for Suffolk or to comment feel free to do so)

* denotes Incumbent

County wide
CE *Tom Suozzi D vs Ed Mangano R
DA *Kathleen Rice D vs Joy Watson R

Both Suozzi and Rice are likely to cruise to victory.

Town Supervsior
TOB * John Venditto R vs Keith Scalia-D
TOH * Kate Murray R vs Kristen McElroy-D
TONH * Jon Kaiman D vs Lee Tu

Both the Republican Venditto and the Democrat Kaiman should cruise to victory in their respective towns. The race between Murray and McElroy could be an interesting one though. At this point I think Murray will win as the GOP is still very strong on the local level in the TOH. However, issues regarding the hold up with the Lighthouse (which a recent poll shows the majority of those on LI favor) could hurt her. Also McElroy came out of nowhere last year and almost took out Kemp Hannon in the 6th Senate District losing by four (it was the 2nd closest of the 62 state senate districts). As mentioned the TOH is strong for the GOP locally, but registration has moved in the Dems direction and I believe its more Dem than the 6th SD she almost won last year.
County Legis (not going to list all 19)

LD-2 Robert Toriano-D vs Derek Partee-R vs Pablo Sinclair (I/D)
LD 3 *John Ciotti-R vs Nina Bastardi-D
LD 5 *Joe Scanell-D vs Chris Browne-R
LD 14 *Dave Mejias-D vs Joe Belesi-R
LD 17 Rose Walker-R vs Arshad Majid-D


I listed 5 of the 19 districts, only three of them are really competitive. The 2nd and 17th I just listed because they have no incumbent. In the 2nd Corbin lost the Primary amid his legal problems. Pablo Sinclair is a Democrat running as a 3rd party candidate which could throw a wrinkle into the mix but Toriano should win easily as Dems have a huge advantage in registration. In the 17th it is open due to the fact Mangano is running for CE, Town of Oyster Bay Councilwoman Rose Walker is taking on Arshad Majid. The district is heavily Republican so they should hold the seat.

The three competitive races.
LD-3 John Ciotti vs Nina Bastradi. This is the one I think is most vulnerable to flip. The district has changed quite a bit over the years, Bastradi is better funded than any of Ciotti's previous opponents and the Democrats have a significant party registration advantage.

LD-5 Joe Scanell vs Chris Browne- Rematch from 2007 and the Republicans are targeting the seat once again. Dems have opened up a modest registration advantage and while should be fairly close unless turnout in Rockville Centre is much higher than turnout in Baldwin likely won't be enough (just a bit higher which may happen likely won't cut it)

LD-14 Dave Mejias vs Joe Belesi. Another rematch from 07, and a district the GOP targets hard every election, similar to LD-3 the challenging party has a rather large registration advantage (though parties are reversed and the GOP advantage in the 14th while strong isn't quite as large as the Dems in the 3rd). It was the closest race in 07 (2%) and likely to be very close again. This is the GOP's biggest target every election and the same this year. If the GOP was going to knock him off 07 would have been the year. Suozzi at the top of the ticket will increase turnout compared to 07, he is better funded than he was two years ago as well, and while the GOP's registration gap is still large it has dropped somewhat over the last few years.

Anyway since I was bored just decided to post a bit of an analysis, anyone who wants to comment or discuss other races go ride ahead, as long as we keep it civil for the mods

P.S this was just a quick overview on what some of the races are and who I think will win, I tried to leave any biases I have out of it as much as possible

[Keeper]

Discussing local/state politics is fine and does belong here.

[pro cop anti corruption]

Suozzi is a much better pick than Mangano, despite the fact that Suozzi has been a pathetic CE. Mangano would just be that much worse.

Rice has got to go... it's unfortunate the GOP can't find a stronger candidate.

[jak0lantern01]

We've got good competition in Smithtown this year, with Pat Vecchio going up against Pat Biancanello. I think it's time for 82 year old Vecchio to end his 32 year reign that's plowing Smithtown head first into the ground. Between the cronies and the corruption, we need a major change here. I mean, what is this man holding onto?

[Jrprofess]

I am in Town of Smithtown and a registered Democrat, but I would be very surprised to see Vecchio lose (I even voted for him last time around). Smithtown is awfully Republican, even though the Democrats have finally put an interesting slate of candidates together. The irony is that the cost of keeping Township costs down over the years so Vecchio could brag about it has finally come to roost as we are really in a tough spot with our libraries and roads now out of compliance with federal mandates that require very expensive repair. Expenses that can no longer be put off and our now quite a large bill. It would be interesting to see some new leadership and even more interesting to see some change in the cronyism, but I am not naive enough to think that new leadership would not bring in their own cronies anyway...it is frustrating, but still how much of these towns are run, regardless of political party. At least there is some competition this year.

[jak0lantern01]

Well, the least that you can do is vote for the different candidate. We ate dinner out with a friend last night right on Main Street and it was agreed that it looked old, tired, and rundown. I don't know, the town looks like it's starting to reflect the people that are running it for way too long IMO. I really think Biancanello is a very sincere candidate. She's on the town board already and supposedly hasn't accepted a pay raise. What? You mean someone that's out there who is more interested in making a difference instead of satisfying their own ego? Unheard of.

[ohyeahbro]

Rice has got to go, I personally have dealt with her and she would rather lock up every single taxpayer and nassau resident for DWI then ever try a robbery or homicide case. They should post her record on plea deals with SERIOUS VIOLENT Felonies. Its a joke. But she wont plea out a swi so that makes her a good DA, no it makes her penny wise and pound foolish.

[SuffolkGuy]

Originally Posted by Keeper

Discussing local/state politics is fine and does belong here.

I just want to say that you are really on top of things here. Kudos to you, good sir.

Oh, and quite frankly, regarding Suffolk, I dont care WHO gets in as long as Levy gets OUT.

[ENFD240]

Originally Posted by SuffolkGuy

Oh, and quite frankly, regarding Suffolk, I dont care WHO gets in as long as Levy gets OUT.

i heard there's a grass roots campaign to write in B. Fox... never heard of him though...

[SuffolkGuy]

Originally Posted by ENFD240

i heard there's a grass roots campaign to write in B. Fox... never heard of him though...

He's the up and coming star over in western Suffolk somewhere. Forget what the B is for though