I know the mods prefer to have the political discussion relegated to the Political Boards, but since this is locally based instead of national based and the LI political boards that are around are horrid, I hope its ok to have a thread here since Election Day is less than 3 weeks away.
I'm just going to list a few of the major and key Nassau races (anyone want to do the same for Suffolk or to comment feel free to do so)
* denotes Incumbent
CE *Tom Suozzi D vs Ed Mangano R
DA *Kathleen Rice D vs Joy Watson R
Both Suozzi and Rice are likely to cruise to victory.
TOB * John Venditto R vs Keith Scalia-D
TOH * Kate Murray R vs Kristen McElroy-D
TONH * Jon Kaiman D vs Lee Tu
Both the Republican Venditto and the Democrat Kaiman should cruise to victory in their respective towns. The race between Murray and McElroy could be an interesting one though. At this point I think Murray will win as the GOP is still very strong on the local level in the TOH. However, issues regarding the hold up with the Lighthouse (which a recent poll shows the majority of those on LI favor) could hurt her. Also McElroy came out of nowhere last year and almost took out Kemp Hannon in the 6th Senate District losing by four (it was the 2nd closest of the 62 state senate districts). As mentioned the TOH is strong for the GOP locally, but registration has moved in the Dems direction and I believe its more Dem than the 6th SD she almost won last year.
County Legis (not going to list all 19)
LD-2 Robert Toriano-D vs Derek Partee-R vs Pablo Sinclair (I/D)
LD 3 *John Ciotti-R vs Nina Bastardi-D
LD 5 *Joe Scanell-D vs Chris Browne-R
LD 14 *Dave Mejias-D vs Joe Belesi-R
LD 17 Rose Walker-R vs Arshad Majid-D
I listed 5 of the 19 districts, only three of them are really competitive. The 2nd and 17th I just listed because they have no incumbent. In the 2nd Corbin lost the Primary amid his legal problems. Pablo Sinclair is a Democrat running as a 3rd party candidate which could throw a wrinkle into the mix but Toriano should win easily as Dems have a huge advantage in registration. In the 17th it is open due to the fact Mangano is running for CE, Town of Oyster Bay Councilwoman Rose Walker is taking on Arshad Majid. The district is heavily Republican so they should hold the seat.
The three competitive races.
LD-3 John Ciotti vs Nina Bastradi. This is the one I think is most vulnerable to flip. The district has changed quite a bit over the years, Bastradi is better funded than any of Ciotti's previous opponents and the Democrats have a significant party registration advantage.
LD-5 Joe Scanell vs Chris Browne- Rematch from 2007 and the Republicans are targeting the seat once again. Dems have opened up a modest registration advantage and while should be fairly close unless turnout in Rockville Centre is much higher than turnout in Baldwin likely won't be enough (just a bit higher which may happen likely won't cut it)
LD-14 Dave Mejias vs Joe Belesi. Another rematch from 07, and a district the GOP targets hard every election, similar to LD-3 the challenging party has a rather large registration advantage (though parties are reversed and the GOP advantage in the 14th while strong isn't quite as large as the Dems in the 3rd). It was the closest race in 07 (2%) and likely to be very close again. This is the GOP's biggest target every election and the same this year. If the GOP was going to knock him off 07 would have been the year. Suozzi at the top of the ticket will increase turnout compared to 07, he is better funded than he was two years ago as well, and while the GOP's registration gap is still large it has dropped somewhat over the last few years.
Anyway since I was bored just decided to post a bit of an analysis, anyone who wants to comment or discuss other races go ride ahead, as long as we keep it civil for the mods
P.S this was just a quick overview on what some of the races are and who I think will win, I tried to leave any biases I have out of it as much as possible