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Overall crime is way down compared to the bad days but the party can't last forever. Especially when you do not invest in those who brought the crime down in the first place. ie The NYPD
It appears your knowledge of crime in this city is based on the numbers you read in the papers and your personal experience. All those wonderful stats you quoted have been sanitized to make you feel better. I work in federal law enforcement and what I see first hand gives me a very different picture. One that has not been fixed to keep the property values up and the tourists coming back for more. The murder rate as well as rape and robbery are up because they are difficult to "fix" statistical speaking. The pesky family members get mad when little johnny gets shot five times in the head and the city calls it a suicide. Also other crimes that the city tells you are down are really up but have been cleaned up so to speak. The crimes are reported but they have been downgraded to discon or lost property. The cities lack of investment in law enforcement and very poor leadership have created a downward trend in the quality of life for new yorkers and life expectancies in some areas of the city. This current trend will continue until the murders come over to the southern part of Manhattan.
By the way, a 15 year old girl was stabbed to death last night in queens. RIP and god bless.
So you're saying the numbers are being "fixed" now but they never were in the past? All of the sudden the politicians realized in 2008 that it's good for their careers to make it look like crime is low, but no other politicians realized that before?
I think we all agree that there is fudging of the numbers, but as Henna said this is nothing new, unique, or a recent phenomenon. The numbers are what they are, and are a reasonably assessment of what is occuring in the city, and by no means 100%.
The point is however, crime rates have been trending DOWNWARD, as has the murder rate. Yes it is up 8% so far, but this is based on the record 2007 low crime rate, and is really just a normal variation.
Regarding your "party can't last forever" comment.....thats was the same naysaying/pointless/baseless comment that was said when the murder rate went back under 1,000, then 900, then 800, then 700...and now we are about 500 as of 2007. Some people can only see the negative no matter what...very sad indeed.
There is no drop i nmurder rates. There is an 8% increase despite better emergency medicine. I'm sure there are violent crime stats out there somewhere
I think an interesting question to ask is "if today's victims of violent crimes, especially shooting victims and stabbing victims, were to rely on 1985 ambulance response times and ambulance technology and were taken to 1985 emergency rooms, what would the murder rate be?"
I think that puts more perspective on gauging overall safety in the 5 boros. My guess is that the number would still be lower than the 1500 or so murders in 1985, but not as low as they are now. At the end of the day, if someone is shot on your block, whether the ER saves him or not doesn't change the fact that bullets were flying on your street, and if you're a parent of a small child, that impacts your decision on whether to allow your kid outside and at what time of the day/night you no longer feel safe to be outside.
So you're saying the numbers are being "fixed" now but they never were in the past? All of the sudden the politicians realized in 2008 that it's good for their careers to make it look like crime is low, but no other politicians realized that before?
First off, it wasnt until 1992 when Guiliani ran against Dinkins that crime was THE major issue of the election. Secondly, the NYPD didn;t have Compstat, so Commanding Officers weren't held as accountable as they are today for increases in crime.
The problem that creates, is that the culture of the organization becomes one where real innovation is replaced by the narrow focus of keeping your "numbers" down. What happens then is that CO's put pressure on the Lt's and Sgt's to see to it that reports for certain categories are NOT taken and are in fact re-classified at the street level to a lower category. Those that cannot be readily downgraded at the street level go to Crime Analysis, and they call the victim on the phone and then downgrade the crime by lowering dollar amount of the item stolen or by downplaying another element of the crime which then permits a lower classification.
Rudy supported the cops and took away silly restrictions against street cops arresting drug dealers, and that in and of itself helped to lower crime tremendously. By the late 90's, the size of the NYPD grew to about 41K cops AND Rudy expanded Narcotics operations and budgeted Condor Overtime to keep the cops out there longer. That lowered crime even more.
The problem today is that we are down to about 33K cops, and many of them are rookies. Rudy's NYPD had a lot of vets who cut thei teeth in the crack-war 80's. With City Hall's support, they brought the city back from the brink of lawlessness. Today's NYPD CANNOT meet that challenge as it it is too inexperienced and way too demoralized. A new drug hitting the street today would be a disaster for NYC.
"What happens then is that CO's put pressure on the Lt's and Sgt's to see to it that reports for certain categories are NOT taken and are in fact re-classified at the street level to a lower category. Those that cannot be readily downgraded at the street level go to Crime Analysis, and they call the victim on the phone and then downgrade the crime by lowering dollar amount of the item stolen or by downplaying another element of the crime which then permits a lower classification."
Thank you for reporting the truth so clearly. It's disgusting and everyone should know it's happening. Isn't it also true that their method of pricing stolen items was by looking it up on e-bay so the dollar amount would always be ridiculously low?
[quote=SouthQueens149;4252163]First off, it wasnt until 1992 when Guiliani ran against Dinkins that crime was THE major issue of the election. Secondly, the NYPD didn;t have Compstat, so Commanding Officers weren't held as accountable as they are today for increases in crime.
The problem that creates, is that the culture of the organization becomes one where real innovation is replaced by the narrow focus of keeping your "numbers" down. What happens then is that CO's put pressure on the Lt's and Sgt's to see to it that reports for certain categories are NOT taken and are in fact re-classified at the street level to a lower category. Those that cannot be readily downgraded at the street level go to Crime Analysis, and they call the victim on the phone and then downgrade the crime by lowering dollar amount of the item stolen or by downplaying another element of the crime which then permits a lower classification.
Rudy supported the cops and took away silly restrictions against street cops arresting drug dealers, and that in and of itself helped to lower crime tremendously. By the late 90's, the size of the NYPD grew to about 41K cops AND Rudy expanded Narcotics operations and budgeted Condor Overtime to keep the cops out there longer. That lowered crime even more.
The problem today is that we are down to about 33K cops, and many of them are rookies. Rudy's NYPD had a lot of vets who cut thei teeth in the crack-war 80's. With City Hall's support, they brought the city back from the brink of lawlessness. Today's NYPD CANNOT meet that challenge as it it is too inexperienced and way too demoralized. A new drug hitting the street today would be a disaster for NYC.[/quote]
That's what I was thinking also. The new crack/heroine will crush this city and many others around the US because it won't stay only here.
"What happens then is that CO's put pressure on the Lt's and Sgt's to see to it that reports for certain categories are NOT taken and are in fact re-classified at the street level to a lower category. Those that cannot be readily downgraded at the street level go to Crime Analysis, and they call the victim on the phone and then downgrade the crime by lowering dollar amount of the item stolen or by downplaying another element of the crime which then permits a lower classification."
?
I believe that this downgrading and under-reporting is truly happening - I never said anything to the contrary.
But this thread was about statistics from a small part of 2008, compared to the same small part of 2007. My point is that pressure to keep numbers down did not magically start happening at the start of 2008 after never happening before. All the new info from SouthQueens in fact just backs that up.
Agreed Henna. And again we are missing the point here. SouthQueens, how can you possibly say that the current force is inadequate or somehow incapable of maintaining crime rates in this city. This crop of cops were the ones that presided over the record low crime rate of 2007..and 2008 is actually 3% LOWER than 2007's record low crime rate.
The facts do not support your statements, and they are just the usual rhetoric about how bad the city is, how bad cops are, etc. What has actually proven out is that the city is in fact maintaining the record low crime rate, and your speculation that somehow a new drug would "devastate" the city because cops are incompetent is based on what exactly? Your hunch?
The miniscule increase in the murder rate, and a few other categories has generated a strong and organized response from the police force in fact, and they have been swarming areas to combat any and all increase. So I assert that a new drug hitting the streets would no doubt increase crime, but the city is now proactive and serious about keeping crime low.
So no..the cops of today ARE meeting the challenge..and doing a phenomenal job in fact. Overall crime rates are in fact STILL FALLING, and the 8% increase in the murder rate is a normal variation. Your anecdotal "evidence" about cops that are too demoralized, too green, whatever...is based on chit-chat with your friends..and NOT supportive of what is actually happening in the city.
No matter how hard you want to believe the city is going to collapse due to drugs, incompetent cops, etc....it just ain't happening. Your cops got a raise already..how about you sing a different tune.
I totally agree. that is the point I was trying to make, but I guess I didn't make it well enough because it apparently was not understood. Or maybe it was understood but disregarded.
i love mark twain. the stats here get tweaked a lot. crime is understated. but the combo is just like NYC, lenient law system and a fading economy. that is all goin somewhere.
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