Real estate market volatility in Phoenix (Scottsdale, Chandler: short sale, foreclosure, rental)

[robnorth]

Originally Posted by Happs

Why are single family homes in desirable neighborhoods of metro Phoenix selling for over $200 a sq ft, sometimes into the $300 a sq ft range? Seems awfully expensive, considering the current economic recession.

Gotta confess, in my house-hunting, if it's over $150/sqft I don't even look at it, and if it's over $125 it'd better be nice. We're currently renting in 85254, and hoping to stay within the same school district (Paradise Valley Unified); there are houses in that district that meet our criteria. We haven't actually gone to see any of them yet, just looking online right now, but still.... (We're looking for 4 br/1750+ sqft, although we might go down to 3/1500, and around a $200k budget +/- $50k.) Might also start looking more in Tempe/Gilbert/Chandler, not sure what kind of $/sqft figures are happening there.

[Zippyman]

Originally Posted by robnorth

Gotta confess, in my house-hunting, if it's over $150/sqft I don't even look at it, and if it's over $125 it'd better be nice. We're currently renting in 85254, and hoping to stay within the same school district (Paradise Valley Unified); there are houses in that district that meet our criteria. We haven't actually gone to see any of them yet, just looking online right now, but still.... (We're looking for 4 br/1750+ sqft, although we might go down to 3/1500, and around a $200k budget +/- $50k.) Might also start looking more in Tempe/Gilbert/Chandler, not sure what kind of $/sqft figures are happening there.

If you expand your search into 85032 and 85024 you'll likely see a decent supply of homes under $200k - those zips are both still pv schools. The wife and I used to rent in 85254, and we got a lot more house (and yard) in 85024. Its only a few miles down the road because of the shape of the zip codes..

[Solere]

Originally Posted by robnorth

Gotta confess, in my house-hunting, if it's over $150/sqft I don't even look at it, and if it's over $125 it'd better be nice. We're currently renting in 85254, and hoping to stay within the same school district (Paradise Valley Unified); there are houses in that district that meet our criteria. We haven't actually gone to see any of them yet, just looking online right now, but still.... (We're looking for 4 br/1750+ sqft, although we might go down to 3/1500, and around a $200k budget +/- $50k.) Might also start looking more in Tempe/Gilbert/Chandler, not sure what kind of $/sqft figures are happening there.

I totally agree. There's no economic justification why a 20 year old tract house should sell for $150,000 more than 2 years ago and why someone should pay $75 more per sq ft than two years ago, even if remodeled.

[jimj]

Originally Posted by robnorth

Gotta confess, in my house-hunting, if it's over $150/sqft I don't even look at it, and if it's over $125 it'd better be nice. We're currently renting in 85254, and hoping to stay within the same school district (Paradise Valley Unified); there are houses in that district that meet our criteria. We haven't actually gone to see any of them yet, just looking online right now, but still.... (We're looking for 4 br/1750+ sqft, although we might go down to 3/1500, and around a $200k budget +/- $50k.) Might also start looking more in Tempe/Gilbert/Chandler, not sure what kind of $/sqft figures are happening there.

Pity you're not looking on the west side where you could get 2500-3500 sqft 4+ bd 3 ba for that budget.

[MotleyCrew]

I don't see many homes for sale in Vistancia like I did a few years ago. A few foreclosures and short sales popping up but not many. We still own our "princess" house and rent it to a nice family. We purchased in 04 and are close to breaking even on it if we sell now. Not sure what to do just yet and predicting the future in real estate is not something we care to do right now. I do know that we are glad we rode out the crash to see values coming back and I can't help but think about all the young families who bailed even as late as last year to see their homes selling for more than they owed on it.

[Angelfan760]

Just you remember you could be in San Diego, my wife and I will be moving there in 6 months for a job promotion and the prices look great. a 3/2 from 1960's 1400sq.ft is going for about $500k here. Wages have not change one bit. yet 1/3 of all purchases are all cash ( foreign investors and hedge funds). Over the last 10 years Phoenix seems to follow suit based on the SoCal Market. The inventory here has dried up substantially, so these leaches will be looking somewhere else to invest. With Interest rates at their current levels and the exodus out of Cali of both individuals and companies, one can anticipate continued pricing increases. Big money wants nothing to do with the stock market when our government has shown them is if you lose your A$$ on a house they will bail you out which makes for a pretty safe investment.

[MotleyCrew]

Originally Posted by Angelfan760

Just you remember you could be in San Diego, my wife and I will be moving there in 6 months for a job promotion and the prices look great. a 3/2 from 1960's 1400sq.ft is going for about $500k here. Wages have not change one bit. yet 1/3 of all purchases are all cash ( foreign investors and hedge funds). Over the last 10 years Phoenix seems to follow suit based on the SoCal Market. The inventory here has dried up substantially, so these leaches will be looking somewhere else to invest. With Interest rates at their current levels and the exodus out of Cali of both individuals and companies, one can anticipate continued pricing increases. Big money wants nothing to do with the stock market when our government has shown them is if you lose your A$$ on a house they will bail you out which makes for a pretty safe investment.

We...on paper....lost our arses after the crash and not one government program would bail out a cash buyer. The programs available are so convoluted and confusing,,,,very few get any real help. But it sure sounds good at a state of the union speech don't it? Enjoy San Diego and the coming tax tidal wave.....

[EDnurse]

Originally Posted by pjpalmieri

I'm looking to buy a home in Phoenix within the next couple of years and had some questions regarding the real estate market in the area. Coming from Long Island, our real estate market fluctuates greatly. For example, a home I purchased a year ago for $315 was valued at aprox $475 about 5-7 years ago. The homes I am looking at in Phoenix are in the $300k range. My goal is to wait a few year so my home's value goes up, sell on the upswing, and move to Phoenix. My question is this... how much does the price of homes fluctuate in the Phoenix area? If a home is valued at $300k today, is it at a low point compaired to the last 5 years and expected to shoot up in price again?

Hmm. The thing is that while you are waiting in NY for your house to go up in price housing prices in Phoenix are going up as well.

Real estate prices are determined by supply/demand, location, condition, loan qualification, and interest rates.

Never mind the pre bubble burst prices and the should, could, and would. Lenders are not funding people who are a paycheck away from bankruptcy. Underwriters are covering their behinds very well and so are appraisers. The amount of documentation required to secure a loan is unreal. So, I don't think we are headed towards another bubble.

A lot of people have refinanced, and remodeled their homes. They're likely to stay in their homes unless their needs change such as people who need (as opposed to want) more room or people who are downsizing. I'm in the latter group.

A lot of cash investors have bought foreclosures, REO's, short sales, etc. They've crowded out regular buyers. So, what we have in the area right now is a low supply of quality homes. There are still a few short sales/foreclosures/REO's as well some regular houses that flippers call "turds". Don't see too many people running to buy those.

People didn't buy houses for the longest time. Prices are going up because some people want to buy now.

The Phoenix metro area is very large and very spread out. I kindly suggest you zero in on a location that you want and track the sales activity in that area and act accordingly. Pay attention to the sold prices. I'd say Zillow's info lags by about two months. The Z estimate means nothing. The real prices are the ones that have closed.

[EDnurse]

Originally Posted by youthinkso

if Obama keeps playing politics with the XL pipeline there could be a very large spike in fuel prices. China has been calling for Canadian crude, so has the east coast of Canada. The US is decades away from being oil independent.

As for house prices...buy now or the odds are you will be paying mucho deneros in a couple of years.

Who cares about Obama? The XL pipeline is going to move oil to Houston where it will be sold to the highest bidder in the global market.

Real estate is local.

[john3232]

Originally Posted by EDnurse

...Never mind the pre bubble burst prices and the should, could, and would. Lenders are not funding people who are a paycheck away from bankruptcy. Underwriters are covering their behinds very well and so are appraisers. The amount of documentation required to secure a loan is unreal. So, I don't think we are headed towards another bubble.

This is quite true. In fact, one week before closing Fannie May now requires your employment be verified again.

My feeling is those buying homes today are in solid financial shape or else they wouldn't be able to secure a loan.