Upbeat Data for Phoenix RE Market... again (Scottsdale, Chandler: for sale, real estate)

[Potential_Landlord]

Well, it's no rocket science... in the long run it's a question of supply and demand. When inventory became critically low at the end of the great RE bust here prices were moving up strongly from late 2011 on. By 2014 inventory had gone up sufficiently to slow down the price increases to measly 2.4% p.a. But since then inventory is going down again. 2015 to November (last data point) was up 5.3% and inventory is still going down... so we can expect higher price increases this year IMO.

The Calculated Risk blog usually has it right:
"With falling inventory, prices increased a little faster in 2015 (something to watch in 2016 if inventory continues to decline). Prices are already up 5.3% through November according the Case-Shiller (more than double the increase in 2014)."

Calculated Risk: Phoenix Real Estate in January: Sales up 9%, Inventory down 6%

[ShampooBanana]

On top of it, land is getting harder to find because a) Phoenix is beginning to run out of it in many places (especially the SE Valley) and b) landowners seem to still think we're in the midst of the "rise" part of the cycle. Well, in a way they're partly right because they are helping to create pent-up demand since builders can't make deals pencil. Still, appreciation is beginning to flatten out and some are predicting negative for 2016. I think they're wrong and prices will still rise, especially since job growth is still outpacing population growth in Phoenix.

[Potential_Landlord]

LOL. If I used a negative header like "Phoenix RE Collapses!!!!" We would have 10x the readership and responses. Only bad news sells.

[Potential_Landlord]

Originally Posted by ShampooBanana

On top of it, land is getting harder to find because a) Phoenix is beginning to run out of it in many places (especially the SE Valley) and b) landowners seem to still think we're in the midst of the "rise" part of the cycle. Well, in a way they're partly right because they are helping to create pent-up demand since builders can't make deals pencil. Still, appreciation is beginning to flatten out and some are predicting negative for 2016. I think they're wrong and prices will still rise, especially since job growth is still outpacing population growth in Phoenix.

Thanks for your input and insights. I am not familiar with land prices here.

[ShampooBanana]

Originally Posted by Potential_Landlord

Thanks for your input and insights. I am not familiar with land prices here.

Thanks. It's my job to keep up on this sort of stuff so I'm constantly monitoring.

[KurtAZ]

I received a form letter from a local RE Agent on my door asking if I was thinking of selling...apparently he has 3 families looking for homes in our area. Pretty sure it is just a scam to get you to list with him but I pulled the MLS for our zip and there are not that many for sale. Active listings...unfiltered for AZ looks like 22,857? Not sure if this service is ALL of AZ or no cause some listings do come up for non Maricopa addresses.

[ajonesaz]

Commercial real estate is exploding too, which is a good sign for the economy. Seems like they are starting to build everywhere. Every large empty lot near the Gilbert San Tan Mall area has been sold and is now under construction.

[ajonesaz]

Originally Posted by KurtAZ

I received a form letter from a local RE Agent on my door asking if I was thinking of selling...apparently he has 3 families looking for homes in our area. Pretty sure it is just a scam to get you to list with him but I pulled the MLS for our zip and there are not that many for sale. Active listings...unfiltered for AZ looks like 22,857? Not sure if this service is ALL of AZ or no cause some listings do come up for non Maricopa addresses.

If you live in a Gilbert, Scottsdale or Chandler home under about $220k you will have realtors hounding you. There is huge demand in that price range for good areas. A house in my neighborhood had 3 offers with one day on the market.

[Potential_Landlord]

Originally Posted by ajonesaz

Commercial real estate is exploding too, which is a good sign for the economy. Seems like they are starting to build everywhere. Every large empty lot near the Gilbert San Tan Mall area has been sold and is now under construction.

That's good to hear as I think commercial Real Estate was under huge pressure here at one point. When I drive by older and crappier areas I still perceive empty stores. But I have to agree that there's less vacancies across the board compared to recent years.

[KurtAZ]

Originally Posted by ajonesaz

If you live in a Gilbert, Scottsdale or Chandler home under about $220k you will have realtors hounding you. There is huge demand in that price range for good areas. A house in my neighborhood had 3 offers with one day on the market.

Definitely NOT under $220k. I think the median in our neighborhood is around $300k from what I have seen...ours is worth north of that.