Upbeat Data for Phoenix RE Market... again (Mesa, Scottsdale: home builders, buying)

[Ponderosa]

There is nothing upbeat about this market. Maybe a pocket here and there, but overall its a buyers' market.

[borninsac]

Originally Posted by Ponderosa

There is nothing upbeat about this market. Maybe a pocket here and there, but overall its a buyers' market.

Interesting and different observation in your share. And if I may ask, why do you think that is so?

[Valley Native]

Originally Posted by ShampooBanana

On top of it, land is getting harder to find because a) Phoenix is beginning to run out of it in many places (especially the SE Valley) and b) landowners seem to still think we're in the midst of the "rise" part of the cycle. Well, in a way they're partly right because they are helping to create pent-up demand since builders can't make deals pencil. Still, appreciation is beginning to flatten out and some are predicting negative for 2016. I think they're wrong and prices will still rise, especially since job growth is still outpacing population growth in Phoenix.

There is still plenty of land to build on in the form of vacant lots all over the metro area, and even in parts of central Phoenix. At this point, we've sprawled out enough, and there is increased demand for inward development. Fewer potential buyers are wanting the far flung exurban developments (Maricopa, Buckeye, etc.) like they did during the housing bubble period and prior to that. Infill is where it's at!

Originally Posted by Ponderosa

There is nothing upbeat about this market. Maybe a pocket here and there, but overall its a buyers' market.

It's definitely becoming more of a seller's market than it was a few years ago. The full cash value on my house has increased over 120% since 2013, and I live in an older neighborhood. This is the direction we should be heading anyway.

[jdahunt]

What has it done as of the last 6 months?


When we sold one of our homes at the end of last summer which we bought in early 2012 it sold in 4 hours 6k over the ask with multiple offers which I set at the highest of any recent sale in the neighborhood......since that time I have seen many similar homes reducing prices.


We are looking to pick up another home further north, my gut is telling me that prices are coming down.....my business is very diversified and am seeing many customers already in recession......signs of 2008 again?.....in fact some that were unaffected then are being impacted today......will the increase of population to the Phoenix area offset the overall market?


How did the late 80's recession that sent oil under $20/barrel impact the Phoenix housing market?

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

In Surprise, I see market demand softening especially on homes above $300K. The Cromford report shows our area has dropped about 4% over the past year. That sounds about right It's currently taking 120 days or more to sell a home in Surprise for >$300K even when it is priced right. MUCH faster in the $200K range. IMHO, there are few dozen difference housing market trends going on around the PHX metro. The pricing trends are going to be different in Buckeye versus Gilbert versus Scottsdale. And there will be different hot spots inside of each of those areas (as well as neighborhoods). That all gets reshuffled at different price points and when comparing new versus existing.

So in short, it depends on a lot of factors. Part of me wonders how many sales got pulled forward during the fear that people thought interest rates were going to go up and the fast rate of appreciation was going to continue. Meaning it is softer now not-so-much because of a perceived recession or election but rather they hurried up and bought. we don't have a sense of urgency to buy right now. I personally don't think there is anything to worry about. But that could change if we catch the same cold as China and other parts of the world currently have. If I've learned anything from this PHX RE market since 2009 is that the housing market is somewhat volatile.

Originally Posted by Valley Native

It's definitely becoming more of a seller's market than it was a few years ago. The full cash value on my house has increased over 120% since 2013, and I live in an older neighborhood. This is the direction we should be heading anyway.

I'm confused. You said you are UP 120% since 2013. Well, that was "a few years ago". With that said, double check your percentage. What is your zip code?

In 2013 (a few years ago) and during an open house, pictures were shown of 20 sets of shoes in the entry way. That was an example of a strong seller's market.

[PoppySead]

Originally Posted by JTW2013

It's interesting when it's broken out by zip code and not what I would have expected. In particular, I'm looking at South Chandler which supposedly has lower than average appreciation. Perhaps it has lower than average appreciation because housing prices are higher than average in that area? I've read that the hottest market now is in the sub $250K range and there's hardly anything below $250k in South Chandler.

$250 and under is what most can afford, that's why. Harder to sell higher here and higher is only $400-$500.

This might be a pre election surge, we'll see what happens after there is a new boss in the house.

[Potential_Landlord]

Originally Posted by Valley Native

There is still plenty of land to build on in the form of vacant lots all over the metro area, and even in parts of central Phoenix. At this point, we've sprawled out enough, and there is increased demand for inward development. Fewer potential buyers are wanting the far flung exurban developments (Maricopa, Buckeye, etc.) like they did during the housing bubble period and prior to that. Infill is where it's at!

So true. I talked to one of the Mayor's assistants once and he told me that we have 40% of our in-town lots unfilled. So almost half of our area within city limits is still vacant. That's mind-boggling.

[JTW2013]

Originally Posted by Potential_Landlord

So true. I talked to one of the Mayor's assistants once and he told me that we have 40% of our in-town lots unfilled. So almost half of our area within city limits is still vacant. That's mind-boggling.

But isn't infill more expensive to build than developing a new subdivision? I don't know about here but in Chicago, infill is expensive.

I remember having a discussion here about a year ago about how there is no financial incentive for people in this market to upgrade their homes because everyone just keeps buying new homes and going further and further out. I remember commenting about whether that would change as the edge of town got further out and people had longer commutes.

In Chicago, where we came from, the desirable close in suburbs with reasonable commutes and good schools are growing in value and people in those older homes are upgrading them. This is because new can only be found with a horrendous commute or with an infill home that is very expensive.

[Potential_Landlord]

Originally Posted by JTW2013

But isn't infill more expensive to build than developing a new subdivision? I don't know about here but in Chicago, infill is expensive.

I remember having a discussion here about a year ago about how there is no financial incentive for people in this market to upgrade their homes because everyone just keeps buying new homes and going further and further out. I remember commenting about whether that would change as the edge of town got further out and people had longer commutes.

In Chicago, where we came from, the desirable close in suburbs with reasonable commutes and good schools are growing in value and people in those older homes are upgrading them. This is because new can only be found with a horrendous commute or with an infill home that is very expensive.

Good point. I have only seen very few in-fill houses being built in 10 years in Phoenix.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by Potential_Landlord

Good point. I have only seen very few in-fill houses being built in 10 years in Phoenix.

I was told that major swatches of land in the PHX area is owned by Indian tribes. More specifically the large pockets of open land near ASU and parts of Scottsdale, were tribal lands. Is this what explains the bulk of the 40% of open land inside of the city of Phoenix?