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Old 07-21-2020, 03:27 PM
 
26,580 posts, read 14,528,007 times
Reputation: 7450

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Quote:
Originally Posted by looker009 View Post
Those are fake numbers, just like it was predicted that Hillary got 91%.....

the RCP national average was only 1.1points off the final vote in 2016. those are real numbers.
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Old 07-21-2020, 03:29 PM
 
26,580 posts, read 14,528,007 times
Reputation: 7450
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mister 7 View Post
Remember 2016?

yep.


the RCP national average was only 1.1points off the final vote.
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Old 07-21-2020, 10:50 PM
 
Location: alexandria, VA
16,344 posts, read 8,149,345 times
Reputation: 9726
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kavalier View Post
It's all good. Don't worry. The model that has been right 25 of last 27 presidential elections has pegged Trump as winning re-election. Let these liberals play in their sandbox. They are delusional, just like in 2016.
Your model has about as much validity as using Super Bowl winners to predict the stock market.
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Old 07-22-2020, 05:57 AM
 
11,036 posts, read 4,474,944 times
Reputation: 5973
Trumps approval rating up to 48 on Rasmussen, and 45 on Fox News
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...oval-6179.html
At that rate of improvement, it'll probably be 60 by November.....not that approval ratings matter in elections.
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Old 07-22-2020, 06:10 AM
 
1,881 posts, read 1,017,644 times
Reputation: 1551
Quote:
Originally Posted by MAGAalot View Post
Trumps approval rating up to 48 on Rasmussen, and 45 on Fox News
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...oval-6179.html
At that rate of improvement, it'll probably be 60 by November.....not that approval ratings matter in elections.
No It'll be 75 percent approval.. You have no faith in Trump I trust your faith to Trump
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Old 07-22-2020, 07:57 AM
 
Location: NE Mississippi
25,780 posts, read 17,544,373 times
Reputation: 37637
Today, Trump was reported to have 49% support among likely voters. That would be something like 65 million votes.
He is tied with Obama at the same point in 2012.


There are 155 million registered voters in the US. So Trumps approval rating among that group ( 41%) shows about 63 million votes.


It would be up to Biden to generate excitement, if Biden is to win.
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Old 07-22-2020, 08:10 AM
 
Location: Nowhere
10,098 posts, read 4,133,355 times
Reputation: 7088
Quote:
Your model has about as much validity as using Super Bowl winners to predict the stock market.
Your response is like saying "the sky is red!!" when the sky is blue. Typical pathological lying liberal stuff.


You people can't add up 2+2, or what?



THE MODEL HAS BEEN RIGHT 25 of 27.


I will give you there is a TINY chance he loses, but, well....it just doesn't look good for you and Senile Joe.
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Old 07-22-2020, 08:13 AM
 
26,580 posts, read 14,528,007 times
Reputation: 7450
Quote:
Originally Posted by Listener2307 View Post
Today, Trump was reported to have 49% support among likely voters. .....

the perpetual cherry-pick of rasmussen and only when it's high.
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Old 07-22-2020, 08:19 AM
 
8,325 posts, read 3,976,076 times
Reputation: 10709
Quote:
Originally Posted by Listener2307 View Post
Today, Trump was reported to have 49% support among likely voters. That would be something like 65 million votes.
He is tied with Obama at the same point in 2012.

There are 155 million registered voters in the US. So Trumps approval rating among that group ( 41%) shows about 63 million votes.

It would be up to Biden to generate excitement, if Biden is to win.
In reality that is exactly what is happening. A better word than "excitement" is momentum.

Compare Hillary versus Trump in the the 2016 run-up to election, against Biden versus Trump in 2020. Trump's momentun was upward over the last few months in 2016. Trump's momentum is downward here in 2020. Trump realizes this, it is why he just flip-flopped on COVID and masks.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...nton-5491.html


https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...iden-6247.html
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Old 07-22-2020, 08:31 AM
 
Location: Texas
38,856 posts, read 25,661,195 times
Reputation: 24780
tRump's "only" underwater by 15+ points.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...roval-ratings/

Carry on.

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