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The last hope for the dairy industry was the Chinese market. Trump destroyed that; it will take years rebuild the trade relationships that have been severed under this presidency.
Actually, Trump's tariffs and embargoes have caused so much storage that the farmers are now cutting way back on 2020 cultivation.
It will take at least a full crop year or two to get rid of the storage, and the storage won't move out quickly with the tariff keeping their prices artificially high.
There are some areas of farm production, like the wine growers, who have so much old unsold supply they aren't even going to harvest the grapes this year. To save the costs of growing the grapes, the industry intends to remove the root stock and let the ground go idle for at least a year. More, if that's what it takes to sell the wine stocks.
The wine industry was already in trouble before Trump slapped his tariffs on it. The preference for wine turned out to be generational, and as the wine drinkers are aging, they're not buying wine like they once did. The farmers hoped the kids would take it up, but they haven't.
So the tariffs just stole away the foreign market. The only one the growers had left that was profitable.
Tearing out a field of grapes is expensive, and so is replacing it when the prices rise to profitability, but it's the only thing the farmers could do to hang onto their land.
If the demand changes before the tariffs are lifted, the farmers will be sunk and will never go back into grapes again. But if the tariffs were lifted tomorrow, all that old unsold wine could be sold out in short order; the entire Australian wine crop burned up in the wildfires, so the 2020 demand for Australian wine could be met with our American product. And even in a depressed market, could make American farmers a lot of money.
Trump's farm aid money mostly went to the corporate farms, the ones that are run from an office up high in a big-city skyscraper. Those huge farms- and huge doesn't accurately describe them, have so much storage they have choked off supply many times just to raise prices, and they have enough wealth to ride out any tariff storm with all that help they're getting from Trump.
Industrial corporate farming is so international in scope the big boys don't even need to rely on United States soil for their profits. They own or control crops grown all over the world.
The family farms didn't get squat for relief, and they're the ones that took the worst hit from the tariffs. All those guys have is here, has been in the family for generations, and has taken all the hits it could stand for decades. All they got for their tenacity was a decade of good profits over a 50-year span.
Just enough money and time to allow a young generation to take over. And with a global market, a lot of young farmers saw enough promise in the occupation to take the risk. Trump's tariffs showed them all just how easy it is for a bone-headed politician to ruin their lives.
And all their daddies are now growing too old to farm much longer. The average age of the American farm owner has gone up from 65 to 67.
If those 30-year old kids move off and go to work in town, the farm won't last much longer. The work isn't as hard as it once was, but it's still hard. Harder with each passing year for a guy who's in his 70s.
Those are the facts. All you need to do to learn them is to tune into the daily early-morning farm reports that are broadcast daily on TV and radio.
Fact - 3% of US agricultural production is exported to China.
Boo Hoo. Now they’ll still vote for Trump for the freebies if nothing else.
Have you talked to any small farmers lately? Do you know any of them?
I doubt you have. The farmers I know, and I am a part of them, see Trump as the cause for their financial woes. The relief he offered them was neither sufficient nor lasting enough to get over their anger at him.
By and large, they are all lifelong Republicans, and voted for him in 2016, and while they will vote for every other Republican on the ballot, they won't vote for him this time. Many are planning to leave that box unchecked and they won't vote for anyone.
Those silent votes won't make any difference in our electoral outcome, but they could cost the GOP a lot of local support, and they sure reflect their feelings about Trump. The bloom is off his rose forever in this farm community.
Actually, Trump's tariffs and embargoes have caused so much storage that the farmers are now cutting way back on 2020 cultivation.
It will take at least a full crop year or two to get rid of the storage, and the storage won't move out quickly with the tariff keeping their prices artificially high.
There are some areas of farm production, like the wine growers, who have so much old unsold supply they aren't even going to harvest the grapes this year. To save the costs of growing the grapes, the industry intends to remove the root stock and let the ground go idle for at least a year. More, if that's what it takes to sell the wine stocks.
The wine industry was already in trouble before Trump slapped his tariffs on it. The preference for wine turned out to be generational, and as the wine drinkers are aging, they're not buying wine like they once did. The farmers hoped the kids would take it up, but they haven't.
So the tariffs just stole away the foreign market. The only one the growers had left that was profitable.
Tearing out a field of grapes is expensive, and so is replacing it when the prices rise to profitability, but it's the only thing the farmers could do to hang onto their land.
If the demand changes before the tariffs are lifted, the farmers will be sunk and will never go back into grapes again. But if the tariffs were lifted tomorrow, all that old unsold wine could be sold out in short order; the entire Australian wine crop burned up in the wildfires, so the 2020 demand for Australian wine could be met with our American product. And even in a depressed market, could make American farmers a lot of money.
Trump's farm aid money mostly went to the corporate farms, the ones that are run from an office up high in a big-city skyscraper. Those huge farms- and huge doesn't accurately describe them, have so much storage they have choked off supply many times just to raise prices, and they have enough wealth to ride out any tariff storm with all that help they're getting from Trump.
Industrial corporate farming is so international in scope the big boys don't even need to rely on United States soil for their profits. They own or control crops grown all over the world.
The family farms didn't get squat for relief, and they're the ones that took the worst hit from the tariffs. All those guys have is here, has been in the family for generations, and has taken all the hits it could stand for decades. All they got for their tenacity was a decade of good profits over a 50-year span.
Just enough money and time to allow a young generation to take over. And with a global market, a lot of young farmers saw enough promise in the occupation to take the risk. Trump's tariffs showed them all just how easy it is for a bone-headed politician to ruin their lives.
And all their daddies are now growing too old to farm much longer. The average age of the American farm owner has gone up from 65 to 67.
If those 30-year old kids move off and go to work in town, the farm won't last much longer. The work isn't as hard as it once was, but it's still hard. Harder with each passing year for a guy who's in his 70s.
Those are the facts. All you need to do to learn them is to tune into the daily early-morning farm reports that are broadcast daily on TV and radio.
I couldn't rep you twice ... everything you posted is spot on.
Quote:
Originally Posted by banjomike
Have you talked to any small farmers lately? Do you know any of them?
I doubt you have. The farmers I know, and I am a part of them, see Trump as the cause for their financial woes. The relief he offered them was neither sufficient nor lasting enough to get over their anger at him.
By and large, they are all lifelong Republicans, and voted for him in 2016, and while they will vote for every other Republican on the ballot, they won't vote for him this time. Many are planning to leave that box unchecked and they won't vote for anyone.
Those silent votes won't make any difference in our electoral outcome, but they could cost the GOP a lot of local support, and they sure reflect their feelings about Trump. The bloom is off his rose forever in this farm community.
What began with what they thought might be a good idea; ended in sour grapes. My cousin up north was a soybean farmer --- few years before Trump he switched to apricots. I haven't talked to him in forever --- do wonder how that might have worked out for him --- smooth move on his part to cease with the soybeans.
"Since 2012, China has become the predominant market for U.S. agriculture exports, accounting for 16% of U.S. agriculture export value in 2016. The value of exports to China increased 25.6% per year from 2002 to 2013 and added $23.4 billion to the U.S. agricultural export market over this time period. Exports to China in 2014 and 2015 declined slightly but began to rebound in 2016. In 2016, the four largest exportmarkets for U.S. agricultural commodities and products—China, Canada, Mexico, and Japan—accounted for 52% of U.S. agriculture export sales (USDA, 2017a)."
"WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. Department of Agriculture expects the value of U.S. farm exports to drop by $1.9 billion to $141.5 billion in fiscal 2019 from a year earlier, led by a steep decline in shipments to China due to an ongoing trade dispute, a department official said on Thursday. "
How does the producer make any money if the product stays in inventory ... ?
Have you talked to any small farmers lately? Do you know any of them?
I doubt you have. The farmers I know, and I am a part of them, see Trump as the cause for their financial woes. The relief he offered them was neither sufficient nor lasting enough to get over their anger at him.
By and large, they are all lifelong Republicans, and voted for him in 2016, and while they will vote for every other Republican on the ballot, they won't vote for him this time. Many are planning to leave that box unchecked and they won't vote for anyone.
Those silent votes won't make any difference in our electoral outcome, but they could cost the GOP a lot of local support, and they sure reflect their feelings about Trump. The bloom is off his rose forever in this farm community.
I hope you're right, Mike, but Trump supporters by and large seem pretty unmovable when it comes to this president, even when it hurts their own self-interest. That's what's so worrisome.
Last edited by JAMS14; 02-19-2020 at 04:26 PM..
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I couldn't rep you twice ... everything you posted is spot on. 
