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none of us can predict things perfectly...But I hhave been saying for a while that things will go down again BEORE the really improve
an we havent seen any of the rosey pictures you keep painting.....jobs losses STILL outnumber gains
And I've been saying for MONTHS now that there will be job growth in the SPRING - and that is EXACTLY what is going to happen. This is what I said back on August 12th of last year:
Quote:
Originally Posted by LordBalfor
Yup, the end is in sight.
We're not there yet, but we will be.
Aside from June (which was a temporary spike) EVERY SINGLE MONTH since January has seen a reduction in job losses - falling from over 700,000 in January to 247,000 in July.
I hate to disappoint you (not really ) but you're not going to get to see the doomsday you seem to crave so much. The recession has probably already ended, house prices have stablized, and now job losses are dwindling. By next spring there will be job growth. The only question now is "how many jobs and how fast?"
I've said similar things many times before and since.
Job growth will begin in the spring. We''re right about at the break even point now with new weekly unemployment claims at around 450,000 that's about the range that is considered the "break even point" between job creation and job loss. This is because in a nationof 300 million there is ALWAYS (even during good times) some people losing their jobs - while OTHER people are gaining jobs. That normal "thrashing level" is around 450,000 a week. I know that sounds like a lot but that's only a tiny fraction of the work force.
There is a pretty good chance that next week on Tuesday - when the March jobs number are reported - that they will show JOB GROWTH. If it doesn't happen then, then it'll happen the following month. But either way, job growth will begin this season.
I am not saying thing are not going to improve...I am saying we still have a long way to go till we are out of trouble....one bad thing and we could be in a big tailspin worse that what clinton/bush got us into
we are still lossing more jobs than gained.......
morgages under water is still growing
and prices on many things are still increasing....
and our national debt is OMG.....
when I say that the dow 'should' be at 3000 its based on NORMAL increase...20-30 years for something to double or triple....the dow going from 1200 in 1990 to 10k in 2010 is not normal......it should be at about 3k under NORMAL conditions...I like that it is at almost 11k....but AT LEAST I can admitt that its not normal........Greenspan said it not me...irrational exurberance
when I say that the dow 'should' be at 3000 its based on NORMAL increase...20-30 years for something to double or triple....the dow going from 1200 in 1990 to 10k in 2010 is not normal......it should be at about 3k under NORMAL conditions...I like that it is at almost 11k....but AT LEAST I can admitt that its not normal........Greenspan said it not me...irrational exurberance
WEe had a bubble. a big one. And they are followed by a bigger crash. the crash ends below that starting point.
There is a pretty good chance that next week on Tuesday - when the March jobs number are reported - that they will show JOB GROWTH. If it doesn't happen then, then it'll happen the following month. But either way, job growth will begin this season.
There should be an increase of upwards of 100k because of Census hiring. March of Census years have always been strong for that reason, although the BLS adjusts the unemployment rate for seasonal employment, thus the same economists predicting a 100k jump in payroll employment also predict the unemployment rate will remain at 9.7% or even rise to 9.8% for March. Typically after the first showing of positive job growth (November 2009) the job market will be weak for about 6 months before showing strong growth; as such I would expect strong growth to return in the Summer, excluding the imminent +100k for March.
Also, I believe the BEA is set to release the final figure for 4Q growth and the annualized rate for 2009 tomorrow. The rate could possibly be revised up or down, but is not expected to change more than ±.1% of 5.9%. From this point on consumer spending and private investment has to pick up the recovery.
I am not saying thing are not going to improve...I am saying we still have a long way to go till we are out of trouble....one bad thing and we could be in a big tailspin worse that what clinton/bush got us into
we are still lossing more jobs than gained.......
morgages under water is still growing
and prices on many things are still increasing....
and our national debt is OMG.....
Indeed, there ARE still challenges ahead - hence the Fed decision to keep interest rates low for a while yet.
Quote:
Originally Posted by workingclasshero
when I say that the dow 'should' be at 3000 its based on NORMAL increase...20-30 years for something to double or triple....the dow going from 1200 in 1990 to 10k in 2010 is not normal......it should be at about 3k under NORMAL conditions
3K based on WHAT?
What's NORMAL INCREASE - the rate of inflation?
Even if the companies didn't GROW (at ALL) just a 3% rate of inflation would cause the DOW to be nearly your 3K number in those 30 years.
Do you REALLY think those companies didn't GROW in those 30 years?
That their sales didn't increase dramatically since 1980?
You don't think their sales didn't grow during a time when the US population exploded from 226 million to an estimated 315 million today (a 40% increase - 80 MILLION more potential customers) and the world population went from 4.4 billion to an estimated 6.7 billion today?
You don't think that 2.7 BILLION additional people worldwide added to the sales of those DOW companies? That they didn't tap into all those billions of new customers during the last 30 years of globalization?
I got news for you. This is NOT 1980. This is NOT 30 years ago. The scale and scope of business is MUCH larger today than it was back then. This is business on a world scale that folks back then could only dream of - and products are sold all over the world - to places that formerly had virtually no middle class and thus were insignificant markets but now are developing rapidly and EAGER to CONSUME all manner of modern goods.
You don't think that the massive increases in automation and computing - impacting everything from marketing to manufacturing to sales to billing haven't improved profits for those companies dramatically?
Do you REALLY think a bunch of engineers working at drafting tables with paper and pencil is as efficient as a single engineer use CAD software on a computer? Do you REALLY think that room full of office workers banging away on typewriters crank out the same amount of invoices just as quickly and at just as low a cost as a modern computer running billing software does? Do you really think that it costs as much to operate an automated automobile assembly line as it does to operate one using thousands of human workers?
I got news for you. This is NOT 1980. This is NOT 30 year ago. This is the electronic age. Businesses operate FAR more efficiently now than they did back then - and it costs a WHOLE lot LESS to produce products (nearly ANY product) than it did back then.
The combination of MUCH larger markets and MUCH more efficient processes has dramatically improved the size and scale (and the bottom line) of business.
Any attempt to determine what a "Normal" price increase for the DOW should be that doesn't take EITHER of these dramatic changes into account is just plain silly.
So tell me again that the gain in the price of the DOW should only be equivalent to a 3% rate of inflation.
Ken
Last edited by LordBalfor; 03-25-2010 at 02:39 PM..
There should be an increase of upwards of 100k because of Census hiring. March of Census years have always been strong for that reason, although the BLS adjusts the unemployment rate for seasonal employment, thus the same economists predicting a 100k jump in payroll employment also predict the unemployment rate will remain at 9.7% or even rise to 9.8% for March. Typically after the first showing of positive job growth (November 2009) the job market will be weak for about 6 months before showing strong growth; as such I would expect strong growth to return in the Summer, excluding the imminent +100k for March.
Also, I believe the BEA is set to release the final figure for 4Q growth and the annualized rate for 2009 tomorrow. The rate could possibly be revised up or down, but is not expected to change more than ±.1% of 5.9%. From this point on consumer spending and private investment has to pick up the recovery.
Yup, the census will most certainly impact the job numbers - along with the general improvement that's coming.
Regarding the unemployment rate - it COULD very well increase yet. One thing that may well happen is that the U6 unemployment rate (which was at 16.8% in February (and reflects those that have pretty much given up looking for work (among other situations))) may very well drop while the U-3 unemployment rate (which was pegged at 9.7% in February (and is the "traditional" unemployment rate number) rises. This happens as people who HAD given up looking start looking again as they hear of jobs opening up. Thus the U-3 MAY rise while the U-6 drops as folks migrate from one category (ie no longer looking) to the other (ie actively looking again). We'll just have to see.
Ken
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