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Here's a situation I am currently faced with. I have the option to keep 3 players from last season's team for this season. I plan on keeping the 49ers defense. In order to do so, I will have to give up my 13th round pipck. My league's draft has 16 rounds. Would you make that move? San Fran is considered a top 3 defense going into this year and last season they were amazing. I plan on using my two other keeper slots on Matt Forte, which will cost me a 3rd round pick and Vincent Jackson, which will cost me a 5th round pick.
I agree with Orangeish, provided the forfeiture is a 13th rounder.
That said, team defenses cannot be easily forecasted year to year. The 49ers have enough first team Pro Bowl talent that this year should be an exception, particularly with the 6 games against QBs Flynn, Kolb/Skelton and Bradford, but generally speaking, team defenses float too variably statistically year to year to affix anything more than a late round pick to.
No, and for what I stated previously about my prediction about Newton's rushing TDs tapering off. The Panthers actually have good running backs. I think Rivera has to have Newton reel it in this year. Look at what is happening to Vick in the preseason. If Newton runs like he did last year, he is going to brittle by the time a lot of QBs begin to hit their prime.
If Newton throws 20 TDs and runs for 4, that's probably the equivalent of 28 passing TDs. In my estimation, Stafford and E. Manning throw for north of 28 TDs this year.
You didn't post your league's scoring rules but I'm curious: what is the drop-off between the #1 QB - Rodgers and your #10-QB and compare that to the drop-off between the #1 RB Rice and the #10-RB.
I've a #2 overall in a 16-teamer redraft non-PPR and I'm trying to decide whether to draft a RB or a QB.
I think that it is absolutely imperative that a top 10 QB is on your team in a 16 team league in order to compete, and here is why: while NFL passing statistics are at a historical level, these statistics are only applicable to the upper third of teams that have thrown for net yards. If you examine the bottom 12 teams in the league, and compare them to the bottom 12 teams from 10 years ago, you will find the aggregate net passing yards has fallen considerably. That means there is a very big spread between the top and bottom third of the league in passing offense. This puts Rodgers, Brees, Brady, the Mannings, Stafford, Newton, Rivers, Ryan, Romo, and possibly Big Ben at a premium. Once you get into the 12-16 range (with a 16 team QB league) then you are into Ryan Fitzpatrick/Josh Freeman territory. You'd have to compete against 6 different teams with Rodgers, Brees, Brady, Stafford, E.Manning and P.Manning for starters. You are at a severe handicap from the start. In contrast, if you gauge rushing TDs alone from last year, as a template, the number 10 RB (Mendenhall and Bradshaw with 9 TDs) have only 3 more TDs than the 25th ranked RB (Ryan Mathews and Shonn Greene). Similarly, when it comes to rushing yardage separation, less than 150 yard from scrimmage separate the #10 and #20 ranked RB.
I think that it is absolutely imperative that a top 10 QB is on your team in a 16 team league in order to compete, and here is why: while NFL passing statistics are at a historical level, these statistics are only applicable to the upper third of teams that have thrown for net yards. If you examine the bottom 12 teams in the league, and compare them to the bottom 12 teams from 10 years ago, you will find the aggregate net passing yards has fallen considerably. That means there is a very big spread between the top and bottom third of the league in passing offense. This puts Rodgers, Brees, Brady, the Mannings, Stafford, Newton, Rivers, Ryan, Romo, and possibly Big Ben at a premium. Once you get into the 12-16 range (with a 16 team QB league) then you are into Ryan Fitzpatrick/Josh Freeman territory. You'd have to compete against 6 different teams with Rodgers, Brees, Brady, Stafford, E.Manning and P.Manning for starters. You are at a severe handicap from the start. In contrast, if you gauge rushing TDs alone from last year, as a template, the number 10 RB (Mendenhall and Bradshaw with 9 TDs) have only 3 more TDs than the 25th ranked RB (Ryan Mathews and Shonn Greene). Similarly, when it comes to rushing yardage separation, less than 150 yard from scrimmage separate the #10 and #20 ranked RB.
I agree with your conclusion but I'm not sure why you are comparing RB10 with RB20 when it should be the #1/2 RB compared to the #15+ RB. The dilemma for me is whether to take a QB1 or RB1 in the first round -- that is, which is the better combo: QB6/7-RB1 or QB1-RB14/16 (the assumption is that, in a 16-teamer, 6/7QBs +14/16RBs+6WRs will be gone before my 2nd-round pick).
I have a league coming up where they have QB rushing TDs worth 12 points. It's a terrible system imo, but this league has been together since the pre-internet days so they have some weirdness. But with the 12 points for rushing TD does that push Cam Newton into the 4th best option at QB?
It depends on what you project that Cam will do this season. If you believe that his rushing TDs will drop precipitously from 14 to 4 (Sanchez and Tebow had 6 each last season) and his passing TDs will increase marginally, then no.
Right now I have Stafford as the 4th-best QB with 32-36 passing TDs and Cam with 24 pass TDs, 8 rush TDs which puts him about equal to Stafford once passing yards are accounted for. YMMV.
Here is my team from last season. I have the option to keep everyone except Chris Johnson:
Chris Johnson - Cannot Keep
Matt Forte - Will cost a 2nd round pick
Willis McGahee - Will cost a 14th round pick
Roy Helu - Will cost a 13th round pick
Tim Hightower - Will cost a 5th round pick
Carson Palmer - Will cost a 13th round pick
Andy Dalton - Will Cost a 13th round pick
Deon Branch - Will cost a 10th round pick
Vincent Jackson - Will cost a 1st round pick
Brandon Lloyd - Will cost a 3rd round pick
Hakeem Nicks - Will cost a 1st round pick
Santana Moss - Will cost a 6th round pick
Daniel Thomas - Will cost an 8th round pick
Donald Brown - Will cost a 13th round pick
Brent Celek - Will cost a 13th round pick
David Akers - Will cost a 13th round pick
49ers Defense - Will cost a 13th round pick
I can keep a total of 3 players, no more than 2 at a position. As I said, I cannot keep Chris Johnson. David Akers, 49ers Defense, Brent Celek, Roy Helu and Donald Brown were all picked up via free agency during the 2011 season. So each FA player kept costs a 13th round pick. If you keep 2 FA players, it will cost a 13th and then a 12th round pick. 3 FA players will cost a 13th, 12th and 11th round pick.
I know I am not keeping Chris Johnson, David Akers, Santana Moss, Hakeem Nicks, Vincent Jackson, Deon Branch, Daniel Thomas and Tim Hightower. Most of them will cause me to lose a pick where they are not justified to be picked at, imo.
So I am down to 49ers Defense, Roy Helu, Willis McGahee, Donald Brown, Andy Dalton, Carson Plamer, Brent Celek, Matt Forte and Brandon Lloyd.
Right now I am leaning towards keeping Willis McGahee, 49ers Defense and Matt Forte. A lot of people are talking about Michael Bush coming in and stealing carries. But Forte has never been a goal line back, so that is nothing new. He also gets a ton of pass targets, I am in a PPR league. The arrival of Brandon Marshall should also open things up for the Bears offense too as defenses can't stack 8 or 9 guys in the box given the Bears lacking a deep threat for many years.
I have 1st overall pick in a 14 team ppr league. Scoring as follows:
1 point per reception
6 pt TD's all around
2 pt yardage bonuses for QB/RB/WR
Pretty standard everything else
At first overall pick I have it narrowed down to Rice or Rodgers.
Rodgers simply because he's Rodgers. Most dominant QB in the league right now with the opportunity to repeat or come close to repeating his performance last year. Potential for over 400 pts for the season.
I like Rice because it's a 1PPR league. With 67 receptions and over 700 yards receiving last year its clear he's a fantastic receiving back. I may miss out on Rodgers but I can draft Matt Ryan in a later round. I think he's poised to have a huge season. Also, after my first pick I don't get another until 28 and 29. By that time I'll be scraping the bottom for maybe a tier 3 RB.
What do you guys think? Rice or Rodgers....maybe give Foster a second look?
I have 1st overall pick in a 14 team ppr league. Scoring as follows:
1 point per reception
6 pt TD's all around
2 pt yardage bonuses for QB/RB/WR
Pretty standard everything else
At first overall pick I have it narrowed down to Rice or Rodgers.
Rodgers simply because he's Rodgers. Most dominant QB in the league right now with the opportunity to repeat or come close to repeating his performance last year. Potential for over 400 pts for the season.
I like Rice because it's a 1PPR league. With 67 receptions and over 700 yards receiving last year its clear he's a fantastic receiving back. I may miss out on Rodgers but I can draft Matt Ryan in a later round. I think he's poised to have a huge season. Also, after my first pick I don't get another until 28 and 29. By that time I'll be scraping the bottom for maybe a tier 3 RB.
What do you guys think? Rice or Rodgers....maybe give Foster a second look?
I think that's a tough call. You have to figure there are so few elite backs that receive as many touches as Ray Rice will. The fact that it's a PPR league only boosts his stock. I would go with Rice if it were me. Is your draft a snake draft? If so, you have to think who will be available to you once the draft finally comes back to you. First pick is tough.
You could always pick Rice first and then grab a guy like Stafford when it comes back around. You have to figure Brady, Brees and Rodgers will probably be gone by the time things get back to you, along with the rest of the elite backs. You could do very well with any of the top 7 or 8 QBs in the league. In a PPR league, guys like Matt Forte and LeSean McCoy are also going to be of very high value. Even Darren Sproles should be considered a guy worth grabbing in the first 3 rounds.
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