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This is it. The Championship Round. Only one team from each conference will play in the Super Bowl. So I am 3-1 in WC and forgot to make my picks in the Divisional Round so here my picks for next week:
Packers over Falcons
Steelers over Patriots
Either way if the Packers win it will be a Super Bowl rematch with either the Steelers or Patriots.
I'm picking Packers and Steelers. I didn't realize how long of a winning streak the Steelers are on, and they have Ben this time, no Gronk for NE. Still don't feel great about my AFC pick, but should hopefully be a good game. All 4 teams are on a current minimum 5 game win streak.
Packers @ Falcons - Aaron Rodgers is hot right now. I infamously said in week 1 that the Packers were a team on the decline and I regret it so much now. They have been very fun to watch during playoffs. The Falcons were better than I expected, but I don't think they defeat the red (green?) hot Packers.
Steelers @ Patriots - Six field goals is an NFL record during playoffs, but that's not going to be good enough against the Patriots.
Packers - I know Falcons played well all season but Packers can do this, providing the injury situation isn't terrible (O line, secondary). It was a one point game during the season without Cook, Montgomery, Matthews and the cornerbacks.
Patriots - Six FGs for 18 points, are you kidding me??? I'll be shocked if the Steelers win.
If there was anyone other than Aaron Rodgers QB'ing the Packers, I'd go with the Falcons. But Rodgers is such an "X" factor with his athleticism, taking the gunslinger mentality of his mentor Favre and perfecting the craft to incredible levels. I think his presence alone may push the Packers into the Super Bowl. I am a Matt Ryan fan (Boston College reason), and want him in the Super Bowl too. With that, Packers over the Falcons 23-22.
Prelude: I'm a homer Patriots & Brady fan. Pittsburgh was the one team that had me most nervous. Having the top 3 positions in the offense (QB, RB, WR) manned by elite players all with Big Ben, Bell, and Brown, they can explode at any time. Like KC, the Pats are known for a bend not break defense as evidence by being #1 in points allowed this year. Is that enough to stop Pittsburgh if their offense clicks? Tom Brady is, well, Tom Brady. Despite the weirdness of the 18 point victory over the Texans, it was not a typical Pats performance. Call it rustiness off the bye, although I don't necessarily prescribe to this theory. I give credit to the Texans defense for speeding up the game and giving Brady less time, unlike Rodgers last night who was living in the pocket as a surveyor against Dallas and could have drank a beer while waiting to pass. The Pats still put up 34 points, and IMO 13 of the 16 Texans points were setup up nicely by Pats uncharacteristic mistakes. Pittsburgh's defense is fast, and like Green Bay came into the playoffs hot. With all of that, I think it will be either a shootout or defensive battle, depending on which side of the ball is more dominant. No blowout expected here. As much as I fear Pittsburgh, of course I have to have confidence in the Pats at home. Sixth AFC Championships in a row, 11 out of 16 possible AFC Championship appearances in the Brady/Belichick era, that's enough to have me confident. I trus the Pats to be prepared, and Brady to be much better than against the Texans. Homer pick: Patriots over the Steelers 27-23.
Packers 30, Falcons 28- This will be another close match between these two with a lot of points. I think the Packers squeeze by. Rodgers is just unbeatable right now. It's too bad for Matt Ryan. He's having a hell of a year. Mike McCarthy is just managing this game to perfection where Green Bay's put in a position to get the ball last.
Steelers 27, Patriots 20- The Patriots of the last few years would've blown the Texans out Saturday. However something seemed really off with the Pats. They lose Gronk and they might not have Malcolm Mitchell. I just have a bad feeling that the Pats won't put up at least 20+ offensively. I think the Steelers will have a better time moving the ball. They're running the ball at will. If the Steelers have a ten point lead going into the fourth, it's game over. Bell is just too dominant right now.
NFC: Folks are still sleeping on Atlanta who just dropped 36 on a Seattle defense that is still way better than GB's. Atlanta will attack all day on a really banged out GB secondary and get enough stops on defense to send them to their first Super Bowl in 19 years.
Falcons because I really do believe they are the better team.. Quietly, all season long they've been winning. I think it continues.
I'm picking the Patriots but I would be HAPPY to be wrong.
But.. Honestly.. Falcons/Pats or Falcons/Steelers should be a good game.
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