Glut of homes for sale in the Northern Wake County (Raleigh: real estate market, mortgage)

[dansdrive]

I have been watching the market for a couple of years now and I am seeing many more homes hit the market and stay on the market in Northern Wake County. Does anyone have any real statistics on months of supply? I was told its about 9 months worth and growing. I have also seen prices dropping. A neighborhood with $300k - $500k I watch has had some homes sitting for over a year and the asking prices keep dropping. In 2004 and 2005 homeowner were getting between 100 to 110% of asking price. Now they are selling for between 85 to 95% of asking. Has the housing bust now hot the triangle? And with winter coming up and that being the typically slow season of home sales it will be interesting to see what the months of supply goes to, especially with large subdivisions still building new such as Heritage, Bedford, and Stonegate. This spring could be a real buyers market! My home is now worth what??? Can't be I live in the Triangle we are insulated from the rest of the countries mortgage problems.....think again my friends! P.S. I am so glad we passed on that McMansion when we migrated to the triangle!

[North_Raleigh_Guy]

Originally Posted by dansdrive

I have been watching the market for a couple of years now and I am seeing many more homes hit the market and stay on the market in Northern Wake County. Does anyone have any real statistics on months of supply? I was told its about 9 months worth and growing. I have also seen prices dropping. A neighborhood with $300k - $500k I watch has had some homes sitting for over a year and the asking prices keep dropping. In 2004 and 2005 homeowner were getting between 100 to 110% of asking price. Now they are selling for between 85 to 95% of asking. Has the housing bust now hot the triangle? And with winter coming up and that being the typically slow season of home sales it will be interesting to see what the months of supply goes to, especially with large subdivisions still building new such as Heritage, Bedford, and Stonegate. This spring could be a real buyers market! My home is now worth what??? Can't be I live in the Triangle we are insulated from the rest of the countries mortgage problems.....think again my friends! P.S. I am so glad we passed on that McMansion when we migrated to the triangle!

It is hard to have a "Bust" when you never had a "Bubble". I'm sure some neighborhoods are reducing prices, but I would hardly use that as evidence that prices are dropping accross the board in the Triangle. The price changes if any, will vary depening on what area of the Triangle you are looking in and the price point you are in. $50K reductions on a $600K house has little if anything to do with what the going price is for homes in the $200K-$300K range. Different price ranges, different target buyers, different market pressures at play.

The idea of across the board decrease in prices is a popular one on this forum. I have yet to see any good evidence of wide spread price reductions myself. I have also seen reductions is individual neighborhoods, but not once have they been across the board. I don't think it is likely.

[urbywan]

Originally Posted by North_Raleigh_Guy

It is hard to have a "Bust" when you never had a "Bubble". I'm sure some neighborhoods are reducing prices, but I would hardly use that as evidence that prices are dropping accross the board in the Triangle. The price changes if any, will vary depening on what area of the Triangle you are looking in and the price point you are in. $50K reductions on a $600K house has little if anything to do with what the going price is for homes in the $200K-$300K range. Different price ranges, different target buyers, different market pressures at play.

The idea of across the board decrease in prices is a popular one on this forum. I have yet to see any good evidence of wide spread price reductions myself. I have also seen reductions is individual neighborhoods, but not once have they been across the board. I don't think it is likely.

I spent yesterday with a developer here in wake county he had the triangle numbers of what is on the market what sold how long things are sitting on the market and EVERY price range. Things in the triangle are getting very ugly.

Realtors are not ready to cry uncle yet. That is correct there was no real crazy run up in prices, however in a few devlopments if you listen to a group of builders and developers the bottom line homes above 350 are in trouble bigtime.

[JohnE1000]

I agree with you. I have been observing the market in Raleigh for the past 8 months, and I have noticed the same things. However, the real estate market in Raleigh is strong in its core, and it is going to be one of the first markets to bounce back once the mortgage and credit snafu are subsided.

Like stocks, real estate market can go up and down. A savvy home buyer should try to buy when the market is down.

The real question is: Have the real estate market in Raleigh reached the bottom?

If one feels that he is getting a good value on a particular house, then he should buy and hold. The value may go down a little more, but eventually it should bounce back up once the condition of the market improved.

Some people might argue that a house in a good location always sells. The question is what is considered a good location? Is anything in that particular location for sale? can you afford that particular location?

It is all relative. I have seen homes and developments in a much desired neighborhoods and locations that still cannot sell. When the market goes down, all homes in any location are affected.
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[sls76]

I'm not sure where you get 9 months supply. I have heard from a very experience realtor approximately 4 months in Cary. That being said, I'm aware things can change quickly. We sold our house in Tampa in June 2006 and when we put the house on the market in March there was about 3 months inventory and by the time we closed three months later it was close to 12 months of inventory. I know when we bought here last June FMRealty had about 13000-14000 listings and now they have just under 17000.

[dansdrive]

I got the 9 months from relators back in the June time frame for Northern Wake County. I bet the number is even higher now. I do not know what the situation is in Southern Wake county where Cary is located. Your FMRealty numbers substantiates my claim. Since last June the numbers of listings went up 30%! WOW.

[ducter]

I have seen in FV-HS a slow down in all ranges except homes under 225. THe homes are sitting on the market and many are just taken off the market and not sold at all. You can search on threads here but the reasons are many and not a bubble here. housing can slow down without having a bubble.

[saturnfan]

Not everyone in Wake County makes McMansion size wages.

The runup in prices, even though less than in some "bubble" areas, had made homes unaffordable for many potential buyers. Now that the financial service industry is cleaning up the "creative" lending practices, people who can't afford it won't be suckered into buying it.

[OmegaBaby]

So what does this news mean? Is it the right time to buy yet?

[dansdrive]

I believe it means if you need a house right now buy it, if not wait until at least the spring of 2008 to let the credit crunch work its way out and see if we will be in a country wide recession or not. If you have cash for that down payment and don't need to buy then put it in the bank and let it grow while the prices drop. It all depends where you are in the market and your personal situation. My opinion is home prices will continue to fall for some time yet.