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I'm sure many of you have heard of the impending spillway collapse in Oroville, CA. If the spillway of Lake Oroville collapese a 35 foot wall of water would basically remove the town of Oroville from existence and kill everyone in it's path. There are a few dozen houses for sale for around 200 to 300k. Now that this has been on the news, I suspect that it will be hard to sell. The entire town was forced to evacuate. How much do you think a house worth 250k before this crisis will be worth this summer?
They dropped the lake below the emergency spillway so there is no longer any imminent danger of it collapsing. Now they just need to repair the damaged main spillway before it erodes upwards and undermines the base of the dam. They probably have a couple years before it really gets dangerous.
I'd expect the market there to freeze until the hubbub dies down. Not necessarily reduced values, just no sales (well, few sales).. Neither sellers nor buyers are "pure" capitalists - sellers just won't sell at actual "market" value, and buyers won't be interested at asking prices. By the time seller "desperation" kicks in, the dam will be repaired (or nearly so) and a few sharks will get incredible deals just as the market is normalizing.
If you look at the last major housing crash, the very bestest deals were at the tail end - short-sales & that government sale of "distressed" houses to private equity firms that closed just as the market recovered. Many of those properties were worth double what they closed at (that very minute), and they doubled again over the next few years.
You could go in and make low ball offers and see if anyone accepts. Then make sure you get flood insurance with your homeowner's insurance.
Last year, two years ago? One of the volcanoes on the Big Island of Hawaii was making a fuss and there were some nice houses right in the path of the lava flow that got sold for some bargain prices. Most properties held firm and waited it out. Lava stopped and prices are back up. Danger is still potential.
I remember that. Looked at properties that year in Pahoa, then hiked out to see the lava flow.
Whoa! Some had rebuilt right on the hardened lava flow from the 80's.
And Oroville, wow. My dad had property there along the Feather River as an investment back in the 70's when they thought it would be the next big recreational area. Didn't happen and he took a hit.
I bet someone could make a killing making offers there now. Just like out by Kanapali.
I remember that. Looked at properties that year in Pahoa, then hiked out to see the lava flow.
Whoa! Some had rebuilt right on the hardened lava flow from the 80's.
And Oroville, wow. My dad had property there along the Feather River as an investment back in the 70's when they thought it would be the next big recreational area. Didn't happen and he took a hit.
I bet someone could make a killing making offers there now. Just like out by Kanapali.
I know. Can you imagine someone wanting to move there now with news of a 30 foot wall of water being just a few days away of heavy rain hitting. I bet nothing will be repaired aside from the holes.
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Some had rebuilt right on the hardened lava flow from the 80's.
